Serious Question

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 02:00 PM

Very interesting thread i like it.....imo weather your a pro semi pro weekend bettor etc i think that in betting you can have every single possible number possible from all the time and work i have put into this game i truly have come to the conclusion that....momentum,coming off big games, how good the team you are playing that night is, have as much effect on the outcome of games as pure numbers do. Just for example Texans vs Seahawks was probly the game of the year thus far great game high scoring back and fourth down to the last drive Seattle wins what happens next week they come out at home and lose to a way lesser of a team you can look at pen and paper and say Seattle should dominant them but in reality they just came off a hard fought down to the wire win the week before and it's just human nature to come out flat the next week against a lesser of an opponent, you see that time and time again.

**houston1** · 11-15-17, 02:23 PM

Thanks Peter. I think you make a good point. While we can crunch numbers, matchups etc, there is a certain amount of variability in performance that isn't currently being quantified. We sometimes refer to it as "let down game", or "look ahead". I do think that we can at least attempt to measure those variables though, which could lead to more predictable outcomes.

Thanks for the comment!

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 02:23 PM

GREAT VIDEO!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jyokhjUCyk&t=29s

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 02:29 PM

100% agree with you these are actual variabilitys that should be taken into consideration because human natural reaction isn't taken into consederation as much as it should be and to be honest at all even....Human nature is human nature example your basketball team is playing a school/team whatever that's 13-0 you beat them the next week you play a team that is 2-11 it's human nature to have a "let down" game or you dont give the effort you shoud be giving.... But as far as covering the spread i would go out on a limb and say that more then not the 2-11 team covers whatever spread there is for the game.

Originally posted by houston1

Thanks Peter. I think you make a good point. While we can crunch numbers, matchups etc, there is a certain amount of variability in performance that isn't currently being quantified. We sometimes refer to it as "let down game", or "look ahead". I do think that we can at least attempt to measure those variables though, which could lead to more predictable outcomes.

Thanks for the comment!

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 02:38 PM

Start from 14:00 of the video

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-15-17, 02:41 PM

who cares what my answers are

you are wasting your time

more importantly my time

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 02:42 PM

OP you should of put an age limit on this thread 18+

**houston1** · 11-15-17, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by PeterJohnson

Start from 14:00 of the video

Just checked this out. That advice is invaluable. As part of this exercise, I might put together a string of concepts and truths to that we should be adhering to. If for no other reason than to serve as an easily accessible reminder of what a successful gambler/bettor training or personality looks like.

**houston1** · 11-15-17, 03:02 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

who cares what my answers areyou are wasting your time
more importantly my time

Thanks, Rudy. At least the subject line was enough bait to get you to click in and consider commenting lol!

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 03:14 PM

I like it let me no if you need a hand.

Originally posted by houston1

Just checked this out. That advice is invaluable. As part of this exercise, I might put together a string of concepts and truths to that we should be adhering to. If for no other reason than to serve as an easily accessible reminder of what a successful gambler/bettor training or personality looks like.

**PeterJohnson** · 11-15-17, 05:23 PM

Thought this would be a good thread with some opinions and good conversation that must not be allowed here, but will have a 3 page thread about if you regret posting something the next morning when you wake up on SBR

**Chi_archie** · 11-15-17, 05:35 PM

recreational bettor

love the action

to keep tabs would make it less fun

i'm sure i'm down lifetime

i've had very profitable hot streaks and prob at least 3 profitable years out of 9

i've been lucky that I make a good living and have the ability to still get entertainment out of haphazard rec betting, without needing to up my bet amounts or really chase big losing streaks.

when I do focus on actually taking time to be aware of all the surrounds a betting (because of a contest or challange).... capping, but understanding market, line movement, and really using all the outputs available out there I can do really well. but its just not fun

**TheMoneyShot** · 11-15-17, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by houston1

I listen to Gary Vee podcasts from time to time and am trying to incorporate his principles into sports betting.

The question I have is three-fold.

1. What type of bettor do you consider yourself? Professional, semi-pro (good, but no full time commitment), or amateur.
2. What amount of time are you sending on your work product (your picks).
3. How well (or poor) are you doing on a percentage basis?

Being self-aware of how you are doing is one of his principles that I've been digging into lately. Knowing what the collective forum is doing, and how hard you are all working will really help me gauge what type of effort needs to be put in to achieve desired results.

Thanks all in advance. Looking forward to a good discussion.

All very good points.

I look at it this way... if you want to ever consider sports handicapping profitable or a serious investment in your life.... you need to make sure...

1. You don't have a nagging GF or wife. You already lost if you do.

2. You aren't in any financial trouble to begin with... hopefully no cc debt etc.

3. You have a bankroll that if you lost... wouldn't effect you financially.

If you're on the PLUS SIDE of all 3. You're already winning.

**KVB** · 11-15-17, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by houston1

...there is a certain amount of variability in performance that isn't currently being quantified. We sometimes refer to it as "let down game", or "look ahead". I do think that we can at least attempt to measure those variables though, which could lead to more predictable outcomes...

I disagree, some of us have been quantifying these things for years, it rarely changes because the system is based on the matchups and box score stats readily used. Because of that basis, the market shows some adjustments, which are often predictable, but rarely catches up to these metrics long term.

I've often referred to it as the backdrop or environment of the market and how most that model the games rely on static numbers, that don't take into account that environment.

It's led to a style of betting that takes a more short term market analysis as long as the numbers that create the long term are well understood.

Two things I've posted before:

Track your bets and why you made them; and that can include any of what we would call "motivational factors" you may be looking to digest. This can be part of that short term market analysis.

Also, if you understand why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes you will go a long way towards winning long term. (This is more about understanding the numbers and techniques that create the long term).

Good Luck.

**Otters27** · 11-16-17, 03:05 AM

Go SBR pro. It will be a +ev