1. #1
    Jayvegas420
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    The Official 2017 CFL Thread

    Let's start with today's game, Ti-Cats are +3 at home and I am loving this line.
    Total 51 also seems a little low considering the defensive injuries.

    If you want to make money betting the CFL this season, check into this thread regularly.
    I have a feeling that the content will better prepare you to bet this crazy game!
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  2. #2
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Good luck, Jay.

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  3. #3
    jjgold
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    Jay knock them out

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  4. #4
    Mr KLC
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    CFL dogs 2-0 ATS last night, 12-3 ATS this season, 34-9-2 ATS (79.1%) between Weeks 1-4 since 2015!!

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  5. #5
    packerd_00
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    Ill try my best to give this thread some love,its pretty good Football.

  6. #6
    Jayvegas420
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr KLC View Post
    CFL dogs 2-0 ATS last night, 12-3 ATS this season, 34-9-2 ATS (79.1%) between Weeks 1-4 since 2015!!
    So do we pile on the dogs or do we expect this to balance out? We all know that betting on favorites to cover simply because they might be due, is never a great way to handicap games, but maybe the books are getting tired of paying the trend bettors & will make adjustments to compensate for that.
    Either way..... This is a crazy streak that I don't think will hold all season.

  7. #7
    Jayvegas420
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    HAMILTON — If the Hamilton Tiger-Cats hope to get their sputtering offence turned around in CFL action on Saturday night, they're going to have to do it against one of the league's top defences.

    Hamilton is winless in its first two games, has yet to record a first down in the first quarter, and has only scored one offensive touchdown. It sits in the league basement with an average time-of-possession of 25:13.

    Meanwhile, the B.C. Lions (2-1) enter Tim Hortons Field on a two-game win streak, a middle linebacker (Solomon Elimimian) coming off a team-record 15 tackles in last week's win against Montreal, and a defence that leads the league in fewest points allowed (20.3 average per game).

    "They've got good personnel, they're good up front," acknowledged Hamilton head coach Kent Austin. "They play their schemes very, very well. They're well coached. They play hard. . .

    "It's a good challenge for us. Listen, teams are all going to get better as the season goes along. We're no exception, we need to get better. And so, it's a good challenge for us. It's a good football team. But our guys are ready to accept the challenge."

    This will be Hamilton's home opener, four weeks into the season (they've played two away games and already had a bye week). And they're in the middle of a tough six-game stretch against West Division teams.

    Austin said protecting the quarterback will be an area of focus. The Ticats have allowed six sacks, but quarterback Zach Collaros has been under constant pressure.

    "One thing is we've got to win first down," said Austin. "We haven't been winning first down. There's been a lot of second-and-longs. And that's another problem on defence. We haven't been winning second-and-longs on defence."

    Collaros admits to the frustration of being outscored this season 69-35, but he says there will be no tweaks this week, just the normal focus on executing the plays.

    "We're getting paid to score points on offence and we haven't been able to do that so it's very frustrating," said Collaros, who has completed 45 of his 73 pass attempts in the first two games for a total of 431 yards, one TD and one interception. "At the same time, we can't let that creep in during the game and cloud our minds while trying to execute the play call."

    The Lions may be on a roll, but B.C. linebacker Elimimian is wary of the Ticats.

    "You always want to understand your opponent's mindset, and them being 0-2, it's a dangerous mindset," he said. "For them, I'm sure it's a must-win game, so we have to match their intensity, come out and just play good fundamental defence. Come out and play fast. And you know what? I don't think their record is indicative of how good their team is. That's one of the best quarterbacks in the CFL and any time you have a great quarterback like Zach Collaros you're always going to have an opportunity to win any game you're in.

    "So, for us, we have to stay focused, we have to understand it's going to be a tough physical game early on."

    It's not just the B.C. defence that's been impressive. The offence is third in the league in time of ball possession (32:35) and the ground game is second in the league with 286 yards for a 95.3 yard-per-game average. Jeremiah Johnson leads the league with three rushing TDs (plus one in the air).

    Head coach Wally Buono is adamant a team's record means nothing heading into a game.

    "To me, it's about coming to a hostile place," he said. "It's going to be loud. It's the opening game of the season. There's going to be more energy. There's going to be more confidence. So as a club, we have to be aware of all of that. You've got to take the crowd out of the game. How are you going to do that? You've got to play good football. You've got to not give them any juice. But that's all predicated on us."

    NOTES: Hamilton DB Will Hill will serve his one-game suspension after making contact with an official against Saskatchewan. . . Hamilton centre Mike Filer and LB Simoni Lawrence are in the lineup despite suffering injuries last week. . .The Lions released veteran kicker Swayze Waters this week. He had a quad injury through training camp, which opened the door for Ty Long who has made eight of nine field-goal attempts and leads the league with a 46.4-yard punting average.

  8. #8
    KVB
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    I can’t wait until I can stop saying we need four games under our belts, but Hamilton only has two games played. Regardless, the sharpest forecast I can make has BC beating Hamilton 36-8.

    I’m not sure how specific with these numbers I will be each week (outside of the sharp forecast), but for now the stacking forecast gives BC 34 or 36 points to Hamilton’s 20 or 22 points. The public gauge says BC wins 31-25.

    The Total is essentially sitting between the sharp numbers and everyone else. There are further unsophisticated lines that sit closer to the forecast, providing balance. I don’t like this spot and suggest passing on the Total here. Unless someone has further evidence, it truly is a gamble from my perspective.

    No matter how you measure it, BC opened pretty low here. Those further unsophisticated methods also give BC the blowout in line with the sharp forecast. The contrarian in me knows that things can be off with only two games played, and even after reading the article posted by Jay above, it seems Hamilton could be a prime contrarian play.

    It’s not just those forecasting numbers that give the picture. Those numbers can all be created before the line comes out, to be compared to the market.

    I have indicators showing market analysts putting pressure on BC, adding to the obvious picture. These pressures originate in the streak riding and breaking bettors, but the statistics are more refined.

    There are signs all around us, just look at the first talking points of this thread. The picture gets larger when we see that this is the league of upsets. Those stats showing upsets through week 4 are incredible. But this is the last game of week 4 and there have been signs of the market turning. Those same groups betting BC in the previous paragraph would also yield bets on the lower favorite, BC or not.

    The market is stacking money but it’s not always a dead giveaway. Remember, those analysts seeking that favorite belong to the family of bettors that failed last night when Ottawa covered the spread in the last seconds. They have been patient.

    So we have a page, with BC on one side and Hamilton on the other. We listed some reasons for BC, who’s buying Hamilton and where has their money been?

    How about bettors, similar to Ottawa, who are putting pressure on Hamilton to win a game? It’s the home game, and it’s a big one. These bettors could get paid, they just failed with Ottawa.

    What about bettors buying an upset because “it’s the league of upsets”? Many of these bettors are just now seeing the stats or caught on after week 2. Save very few, it’s not like they’ve been getting paid on upsets from day one. They could get paid tonight. Besides, those that have been getting paid on early upsets this season aren’t, in the end much of a threat to the books. Their decision making process isn’t too sophisticated.

    Notice earlier in the day that Pinny held a +3 line plus odds before hitting 3.5. Perhaps a nod to yesterday, but I wouldn’t read too much into today’s activity, it’s meant solely to confuse as a conclusion can be made for either side based on that information.

    The contrarian in me sees a good position for Hamilton to get their first win tonight. Without going into all of the quantifying involved, the picture is muddied when we consider those BC and favorite analysts above who lost with Edmonton minus points and those Ottawa moneyline bettors who double down on Hamilton.

    A BC blowout would not only make sense to the unsuspecting “square” public, but in a give and take market, would also be a form of settlement for those types of bettors.

    I am just avoiding a pass on this game. The circumstances are enough for me to avoid the moneyline and stick to the generous spread of Hamilton Tiger-Cats +3.5 (-110) over BC Lions.

    In this circumstance, I feel this bet is worth the risk. In terms of how they bring it, a BC cover would likely be a publicly accepted pounding meant to demoralize contrarian bettors. Look not only for BC success, but Hamilton to look terrible as well. If so, there will be a future opportunity as the “I told you so” public will likely be emboldened and ripe for the taking.

    The other side of the coin is that everyone gets surprised when Hamilton does the job. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about North American football, it’s full of suprises.

    I certainly can’t fault a bettor for seeking the +150 upset odds in this game as well, but remember Hamilton has only played two games.

    Good Luck

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  9. #9
    KVB
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    Notice the Pinny line. This time they won't come off of 3.5 as that underdog money comes in. Again, I wouldn't suggest reading too much into this as we can only get hopeful that in this give and take world, this time the plus odds on the spread fail.

    Money is always being steered and the books revealed some cards last night. Any signs of said cards that show up so soon tend to not have a predictive value in a give and take sense...they are more like traps. Money is always being steered and bookmaker techniques play a huge role, but we all know the give and take isn't always immediate, it's why bettors need patience.

    Because the same thing happens, year after year, it is possible to quantify the books behavior, but it must take into account the current market environment when being applied.

    Otherwise we fall prey to the problem I've posted before about models being static, and not dynamic, as they are based only on a universe of past stats that seldom includes context.

    That's where market analysis enters the picture and why the sharp forecast I post is much more dynamic, able to flow through a season of the market.



    edit: I am referencing yesterday's game when talking about today's line.

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...l#post27084992
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  10. #10
    KVB
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    Great, Hamilton scored first. Bring out the sharks.

    At least it seems they came to play and, like I said, if it's BC it would get ugly.This could be a good sign for Hamilton backers.

    Let's see if they can keep it up. I don't like scoring first here...

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  11. #11
    Jayvegas420
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    I love that they scored 1st. Doubled down on BC
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  12. #12
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  13. #13
    packerd_00
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    Which team do you two gentleman pick to win the Grey Cup,I put a bet on the Lions to win it outright,so just curious what your thoughts are.

    Last edited by packerd_00; 07-16-17 at 01:16 PM.

  14. #14
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...I am just avoiding a pass on this game...
    Sometimes when laying a game out for the thread I get tempted to force a play to post. That's not what happened with the last loss, I took the shot I took, but I will try my best not to force any plays that really should be a pass. The words "just avoiding as pass" are inappropriate for me use.

    As the market matures, numbers and metrics will guide us to play or not, and while it may be close one way or the other at times, to say I'm "avoiding a pass" implies that I'm trying to bet where we should be passing.

    For last Saturday's play there isn't a lot of data and I won't say the play was forced, it was a fair loss. I will try to exercise patience and discipline going forward.

    Not sure if too many people are reading this thread and the one before, but I read them, and those words were not fair.

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  15. #15
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by packerd_00 View Post
    Which team do you two gentleman pick to win the Grey Cup,I put a bet on the Lions to win it outright,so just curious what your thoughts are.

    It's tough to tell. I ever like the hot team early but last year Ottawa pulled one out of their asses, so it's tough to tell. As we get some more data under our belts, there are ways of generating potential winner based on money flow.

    For example, last time the GB Packers won the Superbowl I had only one future that year, bought in the early to middle of the season, and it was GB. Early in the season, the Packers failed in any game where a bet was triggered based on the forecast. Whether the bet was on them or not, any game they were involved in, where a bet was triggered based on discrepancy from the line, the bet failed.

    Along with other metrics, that nasty contrarian in me recognized a potential Superbowl winner based on market behavior. To add to the picture, which you should always do around my analysis, the Packers were severely injured and barely fielding a starting squad...things looked dire.

    Let's revisit this question in a few weeks, if I see any abnormal signals or stretched out behavior, I'll be sure to point it out and maybe we'll pull the trigger.

    I said that before about team totals and halftime bets, but its difficult to cover all those markets and write so much. The truth is, good bets can be found across them all.

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  16. #16
    KVB
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    Tonight’s game is the first game we’ve seen where both teams have played four games. The market becomes a bit more mature from here and I think it shows in some of the numbers. The sharp forecast shows Ottawa winning with 24 or 25 points to Montreal’s 20 points.

    The line opened with Ottawa -3.5 with a Total of 50.5 and both lines have moved toward the forecast. The market is getting more mature. Fortunately, the sharp forecast is dynamic and will adjust accordingly.

    We’ve seen the Total rise here of late and that may have something to do with the stacking forecast yielding a 27-27 tie, with Ottawa getting a slight moneyline edge, for a 54 point game.

    With the non-predictive public gauge giving Ottawa a three point win as well, Ottawa is under some pressure again. Remember, last week they didn’t completely fold as they spoiled the favorite with a backdoor splash.

    This is our first issue with a market involving more sophisticated decision makers and it’s difficult to judge the flow of money for the week. On top of that, there are 5 games played in 6 days, with Ottawa playing both tonight and Monday. I have an idea about where this week is headed in terms of the flow of money, but we are still missing some information.

    There are thorny vines all around in this spot. The tightness of the line, on one hand, shows what a gamble the game may be. On the other hand, what better way to pay out the eventual Ottawa moneyline than by intentionally putting more influential money on the sidelines?

    Regardless, last year’s double digit upset champion is getting more than its share of money placed and bets taken on the moneyline and will continue to do so until they pop their cherry.

    It’s a world of give and take, and the rotation can have a real big picture in mind.

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  17. #17
    Smoke
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Tonight’s game is the first game we’ve seen where both teams have played four games. The market becomes a bit more mature from here and I think it shows in some of the numbers. The sharp forecast shows Ottawa winning with 24 or 25 points to Montreal’s 20 points.

    The line opened with Ottawa -3.5 with a Total of 50.5 and both lines have moved toward the forecast. The market is getting more mature. Fortunately, the sharp forecast is dynamic and will adjust accordingly.

    We’ve seen the Total rise here of late and that may have something to do with the stacking forecast yielding a 27-27 tie, with Ottawa getting a slight moneyline edge, for a 54 point game.

    With the non-predictive public gauge giving Ottawa a three point win as well, Ottawa is under some pressure again. Remember, last week they didn’t completely fold as they spoiled the favorite with a backdoor splash.

    This is our first issue with a market involving more sophisticated decision makers and it’s difficult to judge the flow of money for the week. On top of that, there are 5 games played in 6 days, with Ottawa playing both tonight and Monday. I have an idea about where this week is headed in terms of the flow of money, but we are still missing some information.

    There are thorny vines all around in this spot. The tightness of the line, on one hand, shows what a gamble the game may be. On the other hand, what better way to pay out the eventual Ottawa moneyline than by intentionally putting more influential money on the sidelines?

    Regardless, last year’s double digit upset champion is getting more than its share of money placed and bets taken on the moneyline and will continue to do so until they pop their cherry.

    It’s a world of give and take, and the rotation can have a real big picture in mind.

    KVB can i use that on my website i will give u full credit

  18. #18
    KVB
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    Sure Smoke, I've been admiring your latest work, good stuff...

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  19. #19
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Tonight’s game is the first game we’ve seen where both teams have played four games. The market becomes a bit more mature from here and I think it shows in some of the numbers. The sharp forecast shows Ottawa winning with 24 or 25 points to Montreal’s 20 points....
    The goal of the sharp forecast is to offer a prediction of the game that is closer to reality than the line the bookmaker offers. Of course, this is meant over time and many games, but tonight's game hit the mark.

    The market welcomed the more advanced bettors with a bang. The final score was Ottawa 24, Montreal 19.


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  20. #20
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  21. #21
    Jayvegas420
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    The lines appear to be getting tighter, any particular reason for this? KVB might have some better input than myself on this.
    I stayed away from the a Ottawa game last night because I feel the Red Blacks are going to be a huge let down this year & I don't like betting against the champs.
    And also I was working!

    I will not be staying away from tonight's game because I see a trend that won't continue. The Ti Cats haven't covered a spread in regulation in their last 9 tries.

    So tonight I like Hamilton +3 & Collaros has to snap out of it sooner or later.

  22. #22
    packerd_00
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    It's tough to tell. I ever like the hot team early but last year Ottawa pulled one out of their asses, so it's tough to tell. As we get some more data under our belts, there are ways of generating potential winner based on money flow.

    For example, last time the GB Packers won the Superbowl I had only one future that year, bought in the early to middle of the season, and it was GB. Early in the season, the Packers failed in any game where a bet was triggered based on the forecast. Whether the bet was on them or not, any game they were involved in, where a bet was triggered based on discrepancy from the line, the bet failed.

    Along with other metrics, that nasty contrarian in me recognized a potential Superbowl winner based on market behavior. To add to the picture, which you should always do around my analysis, the Packers were severely injured and barely fielding a starting squad...things looked dire.

    Let's revisit this question in a few weeks, if I see any abnormal signals or stretched out behavior, I'll be sure to point it out and maybe we'll pull the trigger.

    I said that before about team totals and halftime bets, but its difficult to cover all those markets and write so much. The truth is, good bets can be found across them all.

    Cheers mate its very much appreciated,ill definetly keep tabs on it and get back to you as the season gets deeper in.

  23. #23
    Otters27
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    on the home dog at +3.5 for tonights game

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  24. #24
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    The lines appear to be getting tighter, any particular reason for this?...
    I keep mentioning that the market will get more sophisticated with sharper decision makers and market movers entering the market after four games were under our belts...

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    Tonight’s game is the first game we’ve seen where both teams have played four games. The market becomes a bit more mature from here and I think it shows in some of the numbers...
    I think this is a big part of it and those market efficiency theorists would point this out as efficiency in action. But we know that the books can put whatever line they want, exploiting the idea of efficiency...



    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...This is our first issue with a market involving more sophisticated decision makers....


    ...The tightness of the line, on one hand, shows what a gamble the game may be. On the other hand, what better way to pay out the eventual Ottawa moneyline than by intentionally putting more influential money on the sidelines?...
    Remember, it helps to look at the markets through different lenses. It’s one of the ways we can determine a good bet from a mistake, regardless of whether the bet won or lost.

    It can also help explain some of the things that occur on the field. We probably should have taken Ottawa to win based on that analysis above, but the time of season prevented me from pulling the trigger for this thread.

    I’m still not sure what level of risk I want to take for bold plays in this thread. Right now it’s the same as before, save a few early season risks. I can still remember BC killing us early season with aggressive trades and only getting it back because of the corner the market was backed into on a winning Total play.

    That multiple entry point trading on a single issue can get volatile….lol. I think the analysis could go the whole season without a bold play, just looking at the forecast, but I think the trading analysis is helpful for any bettor willing to read through it.


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  25. #25
    KVB
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    Both teams tonight have only played 3 games to this point but the sharpest forecast I can make gives Edmonton the win with 33 or 34 points to Hamilton’s 16 or 17 points. The line hasn’t moved much off of 3, and Pinny is adjusting the price towards the forecast. We’ve seen everything from 2.5 to 3.5 in trading. The Total opened early at 54.5 and has moved towards the forecast.

    The stacking forecast is very close, with a few more points, with Edmonton scoring 36 points to Hamilton’s 17 or 19 points. The public gauge makes it more like a 6 point game with a total in the high 50’s.

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...Look not only for BC success, but Hamilton to look terrible as well. If so, there will be a future opportunity as the “I told you so” public will likely be emboldened and ripe for the taking...
    Hamilton, with a couple of exceptions in the metrics, is sitting in virtually the same situation as the last game with BC, including the closer and higher scoring public gauge. That game was the third biggest blowout this season.

    The line once again is suspiciously low and the contrarian in me does want to take Hamilton again, to be a part of the give and take. But not only does it feel like, but some metrics indicate that it is a chase style wager.

    I mentioned that I had an idea of where the money would flow this week and it includes a Hamilton failure tonight. I believe the market is hiding an upset and have seen indications that the books are tooling through their techniques to reach an end goal.

    I’ve posted about cycling through market mechanics to reach an upset in the past. Some readers may remember a 10 point upset I had posted with the Detroit Lions in Seattle. Techniques had been cycled through and it was time. Instead of 1st and goal on the 1 yard line to win the game, a bad call regarding a ball batted out of the end zone resulted in Seattle getting possession and winning the game. The NFL later acknowledged the error. It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.

    Also, when posting every NBA playoff game this year, some readers may remember a market prediction that favorites would be coming in over the short term. The favorites covered something like 10 of the next 12 games over many days.

    I bring these past points up because they show some of the thinking process I’m going through here and some of the indicators I am noticing.

    It most certainly could be Hamilton’s time tonight and it would seem non trader like of me to not try again after BC beat them last game. But there’s more than just even give and take, there’s patience, and metrics to indicate the level of patience.

    If we see this small favorite come through tonight the market, in my opinion, is getting a little dirty for the knowledgeable traders. Sure, the public may be enjoying the high life, but those contrarians are getting taken.

    I said in that post about BC and Hamilton that money is being stacked, and I’m not so sure a settlement is tonight.

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  26. #26
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    J:

    I've got one for u to contemplate. How likely is the Western #4 to flip over to East in playoffs?

    They have to be CLEAR of Eastern #3, not in tie. Good chance it happens. East look incredibly soft this year. Eastern champ might not be > .500, especially w/ Ott/Ham off to slow starts.

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  27. #27
    Jayvegas420
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    After watching Hamilton struggle last night, it's not only possible but likely, especially considering Ottawa's stunted start.
    In another thread I mentioned that Red Black's under 12.5 season wins was the lock of the year.

    This was another very sharp line where only the late bettors, at +3.5 got paid.
    I pushed at 3.

    Probably a silly question but....are these lines openning sharp or has the public action been moving the line closer to efficiency?

  28. #28
    jjgold
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    Jay seems like a lot of under dogs are winning

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  29. #29
    Jayvegas420
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    That's the trend so far JJ.
    You think that's gonna hold up or are we gonna see the favorites start to step up?

  30. #30
    Otters27
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    on the over tonight game
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  31. #31
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Jay seems like a lot of under dogs are winning
    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    That's the trend so far JJ.
    You think that's gonna hold up or are we gonna see the favorites start to step up?
    Some data...

    Against the closing line, the favorites have won 7 out of the last 10 games and dogs have covered the spread in 5 of those 10 games. Against openers we've seen a push and a pick 'em in those 10 games.

    There's only been one upset in the last 6 games, and there hasn't been one this week.

    I mentioned above that the market was hiding an upset; I think it's still the case.

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  32. #32
    KVB
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    Winnipeg has only played three games so the sharpest forecast I can make gives British Columbia the win with 30 points to Winnipeg’s 28 points.

    The stacking forecast gives BC 30-31 points to Winnipeg’s 24 points. The non-predictive public gauge also gives BC 30 points to Winnipeg’s 27.

    As for the Total, once again we see the line split between the stacking numbers and the sharp forecast. The early line had BC -8.5 and it has dropped to -4.5, towards the forecast.

    It’s more than just the numbers guiding market movers that moved the line.

    I have strong indications and had them since before the line came out that this game would be the underdog covering the spread. These metrics will be followed by strong market moving money regardless of how many games are under a team’s belt.

    For me, indicators like these are considered “mandatory bets” but history shows that the first time these bets arrive in the CFL, they are no good. While there is a definite edge in the metrics, the context matters. In a dynamic sense, this about weeding out the losing bets.

    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    ...I mentioned that I had an idea of where the money would flow this week and it includes a Hamilton failure tonight. I believe the market is hiding an upset and have seen indications that the books are tooling through their techniques to reach an end goal...
    I should have been a little more specific in the quote above as I was mostly speaking about the Hamilton winner, which failed. I say “mostly” because things change a bit depending on whether the favorite covered or not.

    Anyway, I have been watching closely since last week’s game results and I recognize that the books use some of these metrics, as part of that cycle.

    The books opened this line closer to the stacking forecast and must have known there would be bets on Winnipeg. The public likes them, the sharp forecast shows it, and some of the strongest predictive metrics across all the sports markets are in play as well.

    Last time the numbers agreed with BC scoring over 30 points they took down the Hamilton contrarian money. But last time a team had such agreement at the 31 point level Edmonton was splashed by a late Ottawa cover, but that was last week, and that’s a form of settlement itself.

    Specifically with BC, beating Hamilton was exploiting a few techniques to draw money on the underdog, and therein lies a need for market settlement.

    It sure looks like its Winnipeg’s time and it’s being handed to us on a silver platter. I’m not sold here. I speculate that it’s the last ditch effort for the market to absorb upset moneyline bets before paying a 10 point underdog tomorrow with Saskatchewan and Calgary.

    The sharp forecast has been successful against the moneyline for both games so far this week and 4 games in a row. Make no, mistake there are big time bettors who have generated metrics, independent of anything written above that will get them to counter the forecast here; again, trying to weed out the losers.

    I’m passing on what appears to be an advantage play on Winnipeg. This goes back to whether or not I should post bold plays or just stick with the forecast analysis here. Many things could be taken from my analysis. For example, if I am right, a safe two pick parlay would be BC to win with Saskatchewan to cover.

    This week’s set up and last night’s result show a clear path for me and it almost seems too obvious. Once again looking over my shoulder, it will be interesting to see if passing on Winnipeg tonight will be a wise move. After all, those big time bettors know what they’re doing and I myself deemed it a “mandatory bet.”

    Readers will remember that regardless of whether I put a play in bold or not, if I mention where sharp money is going, where big time bettors are looking, or even where advanced metrics are being confirmed by line movement, to take notice and pay attention.

    Remember, we are following the money. Ninety percent of SBR would agree to follow money, but has no idea what that means. I’m trying to help define that for readers.

    If all else fails, just follow the forecast. If Winnipeg goes up early and then loses the game, but covers the spread, you’ll know what happened…lol.

    It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.

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  33. #33
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jayvegas420 View Post
    ...In another thread I mentioned that Red Black's under 12.5 season wins was the lock of the year.

    This was another very sharp line where only the late bettors, at +3.5 got paid.
    I pushed at 3.

    Probably a silly question but....are these lines openning sharp or has the public action been moving the line closer to efficiency?
    That was a very good call with the Ottawa line, but it isn’t won yet…lol....

    To answer the question, we’ve seen both things occur. Ottawa got there first win with a line that opened “sharp” sidelining big bettors and showing little line movement.

    But tonight’s game traded at 8.5 and 7.5, before moving down several points.

    Regardless of the night, the books know that they’re doing.

    That brings me to the next point about sharp lines and movement. If we use the commonly known theories and assumptions about an efficient market, then the amount of movement tells us about the efficiency or sharpness of the line, with the closer being the sharpest as it was massaged by the sharpest bettors before game time.

    But we know that books intentionally open lines off and even fail to move other lines, despite the action booked. We know that the books take a position.

    The line is not meant to be a prediction of the score. I’ve posted a few times that a line is sharp if it accomplishes the bookmaker’s goal. From the line, the books can use circumstance and movement to reach that goal.

    If every sharp forecast I had was the same as the market, then the books goals would likely be to get those decision makers to pass or gamble. So yes, in that sense, the player’s tolerance helped decide the “sharp” line.

    I strongly urge against the thinking that a line is sharp because the end result was so close to it. That may be what makes the forecast sharp, but it doesn’t work that way with offered lines. The book doesn’t try to predict the score of a game; they try to set a line that gets equal or enough action for the issue.

    A line is sharp or not before the game ever begins, and that doesn’t change regardless of the result. Likewise, an advantage bet is good or not regardless of the result. Sure a loss can reveal a mistake in the process, but that mistake was made before the game began.

    This doesn’t mean the books know all and the line is always sharp. But it does mean it is very often sharp. A typical March Madness week would show lines that aren’t always sharp. The books aim for certain action, but the public can sometimes push those line way out of whack.

    Winning bets across all sports are often generated by countering the over indulging public, even if that public sometimes gets paid.

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  34. #34
    ChuckyTheGoat
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    Jay, props on the OTT und 12.5. What book was that?

    Geez, they'd have to virtually win out for that to lose.

    Re: CFL opening lines + line-movements, I just don't think there's a lot of CFL sharp$$. Lines move, but not necessarily on sharp action.

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  35. #35
    Fidel_CashFlow
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    The Official Thread

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