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Originally Posted by KVB
Against the line, the forecast was calling for the favorite to win but the underdog to cover in an Over.
Winnipeg led 42-17 in the fourth and with less than a minute to go BC completed the comeback and kicked the winning field goal.
The favorite won, the underdog covered, and the game went Over.
It goes back to what I was posting about with basketball.
"It should be such and such team, but..."
Serious, market moving, and yes Chucky, sharp money was ready to cut into that dinner on a silver platter tonight, but then the moneyline was snatched from their jaws.
Like I said, if I indicate smart money is going a direction, it’s wise to pay attention. That smart money on the Winnipeg spread did get paid, but the upset was a bit too greedy.
Last edited by KVB; 07-22-17 at 12:46 AM. Reason: typo that was bugging me...lol
Kv, just posting my opinion. I've seen a lot of CFL line-moves that don't make sense.
In this game, the key info was BC qb Jennings sitting out. Lulay is surely one of the top 1 or 2 backup QBs in league, so displacement wasn't too much. If the betting mkt was in love w/ Winnipeg, feel like the line would have dipped more toward 3.
Winnipeg an ok team, have had couple close losses. If they fare ok vs Eastern teams, think they get to 8-10 and steal Eastern 3-seed.
It's all good Chucky, I was just letting you know I was reading your posts, and seeing if you were reading mine...
Seriously though, hopefully my posts help make sense of some of those movements. One of the main goals is to gain an understanding of why the market opens where it does and moves to where it closes.
I’ve been using a lot more words to say the same thing you did...
For tonight’s game remember that the line moved from as high as -8.5 all the way down to -4. That’s about as big a move as it’s going to get.
A move to 3 late may have triggered steam action that the books clearly would have wanted to mitigate.
I saw the 8.5. Thought that was a phantom line. I now see that 8.5 was real. So, yeah, I guess the mkt did react to that Jennings info. My bad, on that one.
FWIW, I wish I would have seen the early +8.5.
Saskatchewan has only played three games so far so the sharpest forecast I can make has Saskatchewan winning with 40 or more points to Calgary’s 24 points.
The stacking forecast shows Calgary winning with 33 or 34 points to Saskatch’s 20 points. The public gauge and some unsophisticated numbers give Calgary 33 points as well but tend to give Saskatchewan a few more points. If you’re looking for a total on the public gauge it’s about 55 points.
We’ve got a major split in the numbers here and the sharp forecast has been successful 5 times in a row against the moneyline, and has lost one against the spread that traded as a push until game time close. The Totals for the forecast have alternating wins and losses.
The spread has moved toward the forecast, despite the stacking and public numbers. There is a good portion of public betting, that sees an underdog league with a huge spread and is buying as well. The Total opened between the numbers and has moved away from the sharp forecast.
I’m not going quote my above posts extensively because I’ve already placed a bet. I mentioned before the first game that I had an idea of how the money would flow. After seeing how they’ve brought the action I’ve predicted, I’ve gone in line with that thinking and have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +10 (-105) and +350 over Calgary Stampeders.
For trading purposes similar to last time, I have also picked up Saskatchewan +10 (-110) over Calgary. I’ll explain the multiple entry points in a later post about tracking.
This line is moving and getting costly so I can’t write much more, hopefully if a bettor is following, he or she would have already picked up this play as it was mentioned yesterday.
This upset is fine at +330, +340, etc, as I see it is dropping. If I was entering multiple moneylines, I would buy at +330.
I would consider +10 (-120) but it’s almost better to take +9.5 at reduced vig. I rarely pay -120 for a spread.
Good Luck.
The total in tonight's game has seen the most movement.
Opened at 58.5.
I loved the under until I saw this.
I feel like I missed the line we needed.
Nice to see our 1st BOLD picks in the thread
Last edited by Jayvegas420; 07-22-17 at 04:10 PM.
I hope this bold play hits. For tracking, I'll probably pull the bold plays from the early season thread as well there was a good day and then a loss there. Hopefully that loss on Hamilton from week 4 comes back to us tonight.
Actually, I think that Hamilton loss may be a bold play early in this thread. They'll get tracked either way.
One problem with tonight is that when trying to hide an upset, sometimes it's not best to have it be the game where the sharp forecast shows such a big discrepancy. I suppose if the forecast has hit 5 in a row (increasing some of that streak breaking pressure) and the last time it lost against the moneyline was a Calgary game, we may have chance.
Let's see if we can get some give and take on that level...specifically in regards to Calgary and the forecast performance.
You're right. Hamilton over BC.
I am gonna parlay this game with a UFC fight I have had my eye on.
That Under was a tough one but I think you are right on about missing the line.
I don't fully trust the forecast (OVER) as far as Totals at this point, but I can see where there is pressure on the Under, both in the numbers and by some slightly emboldened streak breakers. I wouldn't be surprised if it went Over or landed somewhere in the middle.
It's Saskatch over Calgary but I made the same mistakes all week. I kept typing Hamilton/BC for the Hamilton/Edmonton game, and the same for the Winnipeg/BC game.
We need more teams, it's driving me nuts...
sure bro
solid thread
who wouldn't want to take advice from a guy living off of $7 per day
sign me up for the super system
It's war Rudy and the bullets are flying. There may have been a gameplan, but there is no super system. There's a sharp forecast, a lot information and how you use them both.
If you do any handicapping, use the analysis alongside your work to hopefully pick up few more winners or take you off of some losers.
We're calling scores and predicting how games are played in here using the evidence given, it may be too much for you.
yea, you guys are clearly doing solid work in here broIt's war Rudy and the bullets are flying. There may have been a gameplan, but there is no super system. There's a sharp forecast, a lot information and how you use them both.
If you do any handicapping, use the analysis alongside your work to hopefully pick up few more winners or take you off of some losers.
We're calling scores and predicting how games are played in here using the evidence given, it may be too much for you.
please teach me the yards per game again...i had no idea that the worse defense you played the more yards you would expect to gain
do you come up with this on your own??
I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.
Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.
Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.
what do you want to bet that you haveI have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.
Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.
Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.
this is what i love
throwing shit on the wall and seeing what sticks
what do you want to fukkin bet
On the stampeders ML tonight
don't fukkin runI have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.
Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.
Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.
you can apologize or we can move forward
your move
Rudy
pull the trigger and get it over with already
this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable
This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library
nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long
without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now
You don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.
You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.
As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.
Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.
That's the last thing I'll say about it.
very weird you act like death is some huge grieving thing 1 day and the next you tell someone to kill himselfRudy
pull the trigger and get it over with already
this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable
This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library
nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long
without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now
Rudy
pull the trigger and get it over with already
this has to be an act , nobody is this miserable
This is either an act or you are posting from a prison library
nobody is this angry in their personal life and makes it this long
without killing someone else and going to prison or offing themself by now
I win againYou don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.
You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.
As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.
Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.
That's the last thing I'll say about it.
too easy with you sbr losers
I have no idea what you're talking about. I never wrote anything of the sort, ever, in any post or thread in all of posting.
Looks like Rudy made the list as another poster who doesn't read before posting.
Good Luck kiddo but no need to post bullshit, no need to compromise your integrity like that.
laughing face is a good come back when you know you are wrongYou don't read before posting Rudy. I won't waste anymore time with you.
You are wrong about what I've posted and the proof is that you won't be able to find anything like that. I've only posted about the use of means and medians and may have used yards and points as an example, but you probably didn't read all of that either.
As usual at SBR, you are wrong. I've noticed you like to use drinking as an excuse to be confused and wrong.
Take your attention seeking drama elsewhere, it interrupts the educational experience.
That's the last thing I'll say about it.
you and I both know I forgot more than all you have learned
Rudy's just busting balls, it's what we do here.
I'm heading to a free concert tonight and will not be watching games but I'll fukkin bet ya Ruder!
You pick it.....150 points.
I'd go all in with ya for $7 but I don't wanna go broke or break any rules.
What do you like in the CFL Rudy?
You wanna go against KVB & take Calgary -10????
You view everything in this manner
no matter what someone says or does you could see the worst in it
you gotta be single , no way a woman would be around this person everyday
unless she's confined to a dark room with chains
Everything in life is a disastrous conspiracy to you and nothing is fun
or you don't have any originality so all you can do is spread diatribe
in hopes to get a bad reaction out of somebody or ruin their spirits
if even for a second , it's like a needle in your arm
Damn bro it's impossible not to respond to you anymore
you can't go 5 minutes or multiple posts without reverting back to hating
your own guts and someone elses
and death is "some huge grieving thing" but some people
gotta go before they explode and hurt somebody innocent
message board is a message board but the internal profile I'm seeing in you
is that of someone capable of letting their inner turmoil cross over into
the path of some innocent victim one day
You need a exorcism, like yesterday
To clear up for thread, the lesson was about means and medians not about levels of defense and offense.
That lesson was basic math and Rudy was confused about it then, that's why he remembers it.
I've never posted anything about a poor defense leading to anything for that team.
I laugh because Rudy buries himself, but I don't think being drunk is a valid excuse.
you a poet bro?
means and medians...in what roadways, not in offense and defense??To clear up for thread, the lesson was about means and medians not about levels of defense and offense.
That lesson was basic math and Rudy was confused about it then, that's why he remembers it.
I've never posted anything about a poor defense leading to anything for that team.
I laugh because Rudy buries himself, but I don't think being drunk is a valid excuse.
you know what this forum is about?
very weird post, I was expecting something worse from you
C'mon rudy, we're running outta time!
Tatdy called my bluff last night and took 150 points from me. I need those points back.
Put down the bottle for 3 mins and let's make a bet!
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