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why do books even offer lines like this
02:00 PM 255105 Silvio Olteanu +5000 o 255106 Paddy Barnes -14000 o
My book has this boxing line up, and if it isnt already bad enough as is, they put a max $100 limit on it. So you could have a chance to win 0.14 cents betting this heavy fav if you like. I mean Silvio doesn't have a chance in hell so it's bascially a bullshit line to even offer.
P.S. they do have mayweather at -650 right now tho.
100 dollar limit is to win I think on the favorite right?
$100 limit on that line means you can bet $100 to win 5k on the dog or 14k to win $100 on the favorite. the line is heavily Vigged, so they make a lot of money, especially if the dog wins.
you would be surprised people do bet it
Staple of big parlays probably
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/20...ier/101326074/
check this one out.
seems Rancier is worth a +5000 inflated odds.
test
that very well could be to win 100, my units are like 10 bucks so I wouldnt know. but i sure as heck not putting up 14k to win 100 no matter how sure a thing it is. For all we know dude might drop a couple hundred g's against himself on silvio to win and tank the fight to collect a nice pay check lol
And that's why they hang the line. They can get action on both sides. Def guys out there that will add that to a parlay or try and make a quick buck on fav and others who will take a shot on big dogOriginally Posted by Underdog5229
Lol. Line on the favorite is definitely inflated but the dog is not. if favorite is -14000, the fair dog line should be much higher than +5000. books make a killing with these monster juiced lines. this line is not a fair line at all.
The vig on a -110 each-of-two line is 4.762%. The bookie aims to win 4.762 from every 104.762 wagered.
The vig on a -14000 +5000 line is 1.252%. The bookie aims to win 1.252 from every 101.252 wagered.
good post.
in other words more lines like this the BETTER chance at value one way or the other. avoid the massive -110 each way stuff you think is such a good deal.
-110 -110 lines aren't bad if you think 1 side is better than a 52.38% chance. 4.762% isn't a particularly high vig. Most UK high-street bookmakers would offer odds of 5/6, (-120) on either side, (9.09% vig). Gamblers should generally get into the habit of working out how big the bookie's vig is so they'll know what is or isn't likely to be value. For example a Premier league game has 3 possible outcomes but generally the vig is about 4.15%. On the other hand if you want to bet with the same UK bookie on the next F1 Grand Prix winner the top 6 in the betting vig is 17.5%. IE the bookie wins 17.5 out of 117.5. Seriously f*** that!
Generally US gamblers will see lower vigs on money lines than they will on handicap betting. The vig is lower on a -130 +110 line than it is on -110 -110. It'll be lower still on -165 +145. The lower the vig % the lower your break even %.
To put a -14000 +5000 line into perspective Wm. Hill are offering -20000 on zero NFL teams finishing 16-0 or +2500 on one or more NFL teams finishing 16-0.
...and you'll have to wait 6 months for your bet to finish.
How did you get 1.252% vig?
If on line is -14000 the no vig line is +14000 on the other side. +5000 seems way off. Or if one side is +5000 the other side whould be -5000 for no vig line. The line they are offering is a way off. I forgot how to calculate the vig% int hese big odds, but please let me know how you got 1.252%
If someone bets $100 on both sides in those odds its 14k to win $100 on one side and $100 to win 5k on the other side. if under dog wins, the books make $9000.
There are 2 basic ways to get the vig %. You can either 1) add up all the % of each possible outcome, or 2) work out how much you would have to wager on each outcome to get the same return no matter which outcome won.
1) On a -110 -110 line each outcome has a % outcome of 100% * stake / (stake + winnings) =100% * 110 / 210, (which is 52.38095%). 2 possible outcomes so 2 X 52.38095% = 104.76195%. You wager 104.76195 to guarantee a return of 100. You lose 4.76195 out of every 104.76195. The vig % is 4.76195.
2) on a -110 -110 line you wager $110 on each side to guarantee a return of $210. Your total stakes are $220. Total stakes divided by returns, (220 / 210), is 104,76195. You lose 4.76195 out of every 104.76195. The vig % is 4.76195.
1) On a -14000 +5000 line the favourite has a % outcome of 100% * 140 / 141, (which is 99.29078%). The underdog has a % outcome of 100% * 1 / 51, (which is 1.960784%). The 2 possible outcome total % is 99.290785% + 1.960784% = 101.25156%. You wager 101.25156 to guarantee a return of 100. You lose 1.25156 out of every 101.25156. The vig % is 1.25156.
2) On a -14000 +5000 line you wager $7140, (calculating 140 * 51) on the favourite to guarantee a return of $7191, (141 * 51). You wager $141, (calculating 1 * 141) on the underdog to guarantee a return of $7191, (51 * 141). Your total stakes are $7281. Total stakes divided by returns, (7281 / 7191), is 101.25156. You lose 1.25156 out of every 101.25156. The vig % is 1.25156.
As a gambler on a -110 -110 line you can expect to lose 4.76195 gross of every 104.76195 which is 4.545454% net of your stakes. I won't argue whether it's correct to call it 4.76195% gross or 4.545454% net. Bookies always refer to it by the gross %.
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