Blindly betting every MLB dog?

[thecomebacker]

I don't think it's a good idea.

[runnershane14]

For the record guys, I just answered a question because it did not take me very long to get the answer. I do not believe in blind betting either.

[JoshW]

Blindly betting anything usually doesn't work out. At the same time, if you aren't very good at picking winners, which most aren't sometimes blind betting very small can be fun just for the action.

[rob11234]

I remember reading in Playboy that betting on home dogs has actually been profitable over the last 50 (that's right, 50) years. Yes, I do get it (partially) for the the articles.

[IrishTim]

No blind system will work - you'll lose money. Moving to Player's Talk...

This thread should have ended here.

[EXhoosier10]

pick a team, watch all of their games, and after a month or so, combined with a bit of knowledge about who they are playing, pick a side

[HighFreq]

What people have said here is not true. You can make money by betting blindly, however the rate of return can be very low. The key is to find biases in the models used to generate point spreads. One well known bias is that many mathematical models can not represent really bad teams accurately (Nets, Nationals, etc). There is a reason why the NJ Nets are 28-37-1 ATS. You can bet against the Nets ATS and will likely make money. Are you guaranteed to make money? Of course not, but it is likely.

The only problem is the line movement. The market will usually move the line to erase any bias. And some sportsbooks will adjust the spread against this. But if you jump on the lines early, you can turn a profit. Will you become rich doing this? Unless you are betting large amounts to make the rate of return worth it, probably not. And it still is betting, there is always the chance you will lose.

Resources (some examples):

Gandar, John, et al, " Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 995-1008, September. 1988.

Gray, Philip K & Gray, Stephen F, " Testing Market Efficiency: Evidence from the NFL Sports Betting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1725-37, September 1997.

[HighFreq]

I should also mention that this is ATS and not on the money line and therefore more applicable to basketball and football than to hockey or baseball which typically use -1.5 goals and -1.5 runs as standards.

[PistolPete13]

Let me add some parameters that can help. I did not develop this, but it can reduce the losers and improve the underdog winning % to 50% +. At 50% or higher, you will undoubtedly make money. Eliminate teams on 3 game or more losing streaks (Streaks are a huge part of the game, especially bad teams staying on losing streaks). Eliminate teams who are +155 or more (+150 is the highest). Finally, eliminate teams facing a top 10 or 15 pitcher (Top pitchers will more often win, obviously).
Obviously, you will be playing less games, but your success rate will certainly increase.
Playing blindly is not advised, but these ideas may help.