opinions about underdog

**KVB** · 01-18-16, 01:33 PM

You need more context. In some markets, underdog plays can be "better."

Produce a score between two teams that can be verified as more precise, or closer to reality, than the the market offers.

It is only then that you can determine whether there is enough value in a play to make it worth the purchase.

**jjgold** · 01-18-16, 02:11 PM

Long term your better off

It's going against general public most of the time

**KVB** · 01-18-16, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Long term your better off

It's going against general public most of the time

That's usually what ends up creating the value, especially for the oddsmakers creating the openers.

**arrgy** · 01-18-16, 03:10 PM

Context is very important. But in general..

Against the spread (getting points) you are better off.
ML you aren't.

ML is good when you add it onto a parlay...

Last night was a perfect example, I took Denver ML on a whole bunch of parlay's which added maybe $30 to the win on a $10 parlay, but when I made the bet the spread was 7.5-8 which I would have lost. That one game which I thought Denver would win basically covered the cost of the parlay.

So yesterday I loved Creighton -5.5 and Denver ML, but I didn't like Denver -7 or more. So instead of paying the juice on a flat bet of Creighton (-110) I simply added the Denver ML parlay. I don't pay juice and I get to add on a game that I knew would win. I did the same thing with Southern Illinois at -4, then combined all 3. I won all 3 parlays and saved myself the juice on all three.

**KVB** · 01-18-16, 03:29 PM

Arrgy, not sure what your definition of "juice" is, most posters don't understand how it works.

If juice to you is simply laying on a single bet, then I guess you saved some.

But if juice is to mean vigorish or commission, like I believe it should and as it does amongst every long term winner I know, then make no mistake, you payed plenty of juice, even extra, when you bought the Denver moneyline, parlay or not.

**arrgy** · 01-18-16, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Arrgy, not sure what your definition of "juice" is, most posters don't understand how it works.

If juice to you is simply laying on a single bet, then I guess you saved some.

But if juice is to mean vigorish or commission, like I believe it should and as it does amongst every long term winner I know, then make no mistake, you payed plenty of juice, even extra, when you bought the Denver moneyline, parlay or not.

Yes, I meant laying on a single bet. Mathematically yes I paid to put Denver on the NL in a parlay over paying Denver ML as a single bet, but I would never make that single bet, and I know its crazy but I will add it to another team for a 2 teamer. In my mind (and it is crazy) the value of the bet is so bad, but I am so confident in winning it that I still get some small value for it.

So in one three team parlay I had two regular -110 bets and Denver at -325 on the ML (I was not going to lay points). $100 won $375 not the true 6-1 I should of received because of the ML.

Bet separately $110 would have won me $200. Then the $375 Denver ML would have won me $100 for a total win of $300, but I paid $20 to make the bet.

So, if I did my math correctly, its $575 to win $300.

or

$100 parlay to win $375, yes I have to win all three bets, however I was so confident in Denver in my mind I only was concerned about two of them that I really had a strong view on anyway. If I won the Denver ML and won one and lost one of the other two bets (if bet separately) I would have made $100, which is the same $100 I was betting anyway on the parlay.