Guys, No One will win 60% of the time

[statnerds]

long term

or 59%

or 58%

or 57%

if you are setting a goal of hitting 60% or finding a handicapper that can do it, quit gambling now. your sights are set too high. every capper will have losing weeks, months even seasons.

if you find any capper that can hit 55% over 1,000 plays you had better get our your knee pads.

fukk sharps. they don't hit 60% either, which should be a huge wake-up call. people blindly put so much importance on what sharps think, or play, but don't stop and think they lose ~45% of their bets.

either you can fukking cap games or you can't. if you can, study and improve everyday. if you can't, you sure as shit better find someone that can and for christ's sake learn some fukking money management. sick of seeing threads about guys on tilt and getting crushed and swearing they will quit gambling with some sob story bullshit. it is a grind and if you are betting more than 3% on any play you deserve to be fukking broke, but i don't deserve to hear you fukking whine about it cause you will be making the same mistakes next time as well

sorry

had to be said

[SamsNCharge99]

thanks...I guess

[GiveMeaBJ]

I'm out to prove you wrong. I am hitting 60.00% over my last 91 plays.


Note: I know the odds of me continuing are highly, highly unlikely but you don't have to take the fun out of it.

[smitch124]

Well what they say is if you are hitting over 60% long term you aren't betting enough games....

[nobs]

You're right. Everyone has hot streaks where we think we can do it, but noone can consistently hit even 55%. Anyone who says they do is kidding themselves.

Yes, we will all have runs where we win 35 out of 50, maybe even 40 out of 50, but long term no way anyone tops 55%.

I have been around these forums for over 15 years and there have been hundreds of thousands who claim it but if you track them long enough its amazing how they always end up at 50% and down a lot of juice.

Like Josh Thompson ( he is just the latest ). He came to the board talking about how he was up over 200K gambling over the years, but amazingly when he posts his plays on the board he quickly lost his entire bankroll. LOL. Never heard that before. But dont worry, he only lost 25K when the board was tracking, thats nothing compared to the 200 K he won while there was no tracking or proof.

[whatsgood5]

Agreed, I think 55 is damn near the best you'll find

[jjgold]

Your lucky if you hit 52%

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Well with that attitude, you guys will definitely hit about 50%.

[james4512]

you cant because you go by stats instead of strengths and weaknesses

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

Anyway, i'm above 52, 55, maybe even 60% for the last year and a half.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

try to just put up streaks... when you have the time:

FINAL BLOGNOSTICATION RECORD: NOVEMBER 2009 - DECEMBER 2009
18-5-3. 78.2% CAPPING / + 14.7 UNITS. / + $14,700.00.
12/25 TENNESSEE TITANS -3: LOST -$1100.
12/19 SACRAMENTO KINGS +6.5: WON +$1000.
SACRAMENTO KINGS UNDER 202: WON +$1000.
12/16 MILWAKUEE BUCKS +5.5: WON +$1000.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS UNDER 198: LOST -$1100.
12/15 WASHINGTON WIZARDS +2: PUSH +$0.
12/13 OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER +3: LOST -$1100.
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER OVER 191: PUSH +$0.
12/12 DALLAS STARS +120: LOST -$1000.
12/10 TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/BOSTON BRUINS OVER 6: WON +$1100.
BOSTON BRUINS -175 + TORONTO/BOSTON OVER 6 PARLAY: WON +$2249.
12/9 S.A. SPURS FIRST HALF -8: WON +$1000.
S.A. SPURS -12 WON +$1000.
12/7 UMASS +16: LOST -$1100.
UMASS OVER 154: PUSH +$0.
11/26 DALLAS MAVERICKS +4: WON +$1000.
DALLAS/HOUSTON OVER 200: WON +$1000.
11/24 MONTREAL CANADIENS -135: WON +$1000.
MONTREAL CANADIENS OVER 5.5: WON +$1000.
11/18 FLORIDA PANTHERS +175 WON +$1750.
FLORIDA PANTHERS OVER 5.5 WON +$1000.
11/9 PITTSBURG STEELERS -3: WON +$1000.
PITTSBURG STEELERS UNDER 40: WON +$1000.
11/8 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES +4: WON +$1000.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES OVER 201: WON +$1000.
11/3 MINNESOTA T-WOLVES +8: WON +$1000.

...then when you cool off, take a break from gambling for a minute.

[Sawyer]

I'm %57 after 948 bets. You can check out my record at Fcbet.

%57-58 is possible on the long run but %60 is very hard. However, you'll have %60 months, %55 months and %52 months.. Average should make something between 55-57 if you're a good capper..

[nobs]

you cant because you go by stats instead of strengths and weaknesses

LOL.

[nobs]

Damn and I thought I was a degenerate.

[pimike]

Well I disagree here. I have hit 60% and up for the past few years.

Yes it can be done. However you don't need to hit that high to make money each year.



Hurry up Baseball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[nobs]

You guys are deluded.

[statnerds]

I'm %57 after 948 bets. You can check out my record at Fcbet.

i don't know if i should say share that shit or ask what the fukk fcbet is....

[DeluxeLiner]

Your lucky if you hit 52%

matchbook

[Masu485]

Mathimatically it's possible to hit even 100% although the odds are more likely that you'll hit around 50. Still NOTHING is mathimatically impossible here, and not everyone will have to play so many games to eventually even out at 50. Some people can be lucky and hit 60% over two seasons.

[xxdjstriderxx]

proper bet sizing > w-l record

[harlee71]

I just try and do my best!

[JohnAnthony]

I want this guy to post moar.

[statnerds]

you cant because you go by stats instead of strengths and weaknesses

Sorry i missed this first time. good one. where would you start when you know that in the NFL teams that win ITS,

Win SU 69% and

Win ATS 64%

[lakerboy]

proper bet sizing > w-l record

[MJT1212]

PROPER BET SIZING WILL HAVE YOU WINNING MONEY, **** W-L

I'f I go 1-20 but bet 1000 on the 1 win and 10x19 on the other games I'm still doing GREAT. I know that is obsurd but you get the picture, by just doing 2 units on stronger bets and 1 on lesser will have you winning a great deal of money at 50 Percent W-L.

Agreed Strider

[WileOut]

This depends on a few variables. If you bet like a madman then no you wont hit 60%. But I know of one person who is 1-0 in his lifetime betting sports, 100% win percentage, and is up 30k.

Those people who bet few games can obtain percentages like 60% all the way up to 100%. If you bet everyday then you have to hope for 54-55%.

[Sawyer]

Winning percentage is a little bit overrated in my opinion.

It's not very important.

Of course, you can pick %60 or even %70! If you're playing on odds like -500 or -700, LoL!

You can hit %60-70 but you may not make any money..
On the other side, you can make nice profit even with a %40 winning percentage if the odds are good..

So what matters most is the Total Profit you made in the end

PS: But it's very very hard to make %60 ATS (US Sports) on the long run.

[statnerds]

good shit guys. thought i would just write it here instead of starting a new thread about money management. flat betting will not maximize your profit. but chasing or doubling down will leave you broke sooner or later. but everyone will have a losing streak at some point and you have to avoid ruin so let's keep those bets small in relation to our BR fellas.

[jayc88]

Well I disagree here. I have hit 60% and up for the past few years. Yes it can be done. However you don't need to hit that high to make money each year. Hurry up Baseball!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

but not on -110 spreads
forget about it, it is impossible to hit 60 % on spreads

[milwaukee mike]

i think winning percentage is ridiculously overrated.
with bonuses all you have to do is hit 50% to make a lot of money in the long run.

it's as simple as this:
with bonus whoring and cross betting, after a million bets, you have a 100% chance of being way ahead
without bonuses, after a million bets you have a 99%+ chance of being behind

i'm not sure why almost every single sports bettor/handicapper doesn't understand this or even if they do understand it, they waste so much more time capping games than they do getting bonuses.

[Fishhead]

The facts are if one can hit a mere 53%, they will be rich beyond their dreams............THESE ARE THE FACTS.

[SBR_John]

Cappers can not hit 60% because they bet too many plays. Think about it; in theory if you could cap and only play games that given the line you have a 60% chance of winning then it is possible to win at a 60% clip. But it may not be as profitable as 56% because the amount of plays that you can find that have a 60% chance of winning are rare. Of course you need a capping model and the ability to pass on an entire card if no plays meet the model criteria. Most guys force a play if they can't find one through their capping filter. These plays are juiced coin flips that will negate good solid capping work. Hence; dont bet too many plays, dont force it. Dont bet on juiced coin flips.

[pimike]

John has called it

To many guys are betting games for ACTION control you're plays.

[maersksealand]

long term

or 59%

or 58%

or 57%

if you are setting a goal of hitting 60% or finding a handicapper that can do it, quit gambling now. your sights are set too high. every capper will have losing weeks, months even seasons.

if you find any capper that can hit 55% over 1,000 plays you had better get our your knee pads.

fukk sharps. they don't hit 60% either, which should be a huge wake-up call. people blindly put so much importance on what sharps think, or play, but don't stop and think they lose ~45% of their bets.

either you can fukking cap games or you can't. if you can, study and improve everyday. if you can't, you sure as shit better find someone that can and for christ's sake learn some fukking money management. sick of seeing threads about guys on tilt and getting crushed and swearing they will quit gambling with some sob story bullshit. it is a grind and if you are betting more than 3% on any play you deserve to be fukking broke, but i don't deserve to hear you fukking whine about it cause you will be making the same mistakes next time as well

sorry

had to be said

Whoever bet more then 3 games a week will never make money. Enough said.

[JohnAnthony]

Whoever bets more then 3 games a week will never make money. Enough said.