I want to start by saying that this is an impartial analysis of this game. Though I am a huge Duke fan, I know when to praise them and when to bash them, especially when money is involved. I have bet on Duke twice this year (1-1; won Wake and lost G’town), so I don’t usually bet them because I like to enjoy the game. The verdict is still out on this one because I see value in the play, but again it is UNC. If I bet on this game I will take Duke. Take it as you will. I have been successful on this thread in picking games, but I understand if some of you see this pick as me being a homer. To those people I say BOL on your play. The point of this write up was to give insight into this matchup for those that have not been able to watch as many Duke or UNC games as I have. This was not a “Praise Duke” or “Bash UNC” writeup, but more of an insightful tool that people can use to base their own opinions.
I’m not going to go into the usual home/road splits analysis in this game because everyone knows Duke has played poorly on the road and that UNC has played poorly every game for the last 10-12 games. And I’m sure most people would agree that this is a mismatch, but I don’t think it is as big of a mismatch as some might think and I’m going to tell you why. On paper, this game is a huge mismatch and with the line at 5.5 to an amateur it looks like a gift from the Heavens. But as I have said in previous threads this week, that you can throw records and stats out of the window in games of this magnitude.
The first argument I have heard for this game being a blowout is that UNC’s season is over. They cannot make it into the tourney. I have two retorts to that. First, a win against Duke will go a long way to put the Tarholes names back in the mix for the big dance. Second, say their season is over and chances are shot, a win against your archrival would at least salvage something from this season. The second argument is that Duke is flat out a better team. To this I completely agree. They are better in every facet of the game (especially coaching!!!! Sorry had to take a jab at Ole’ Roy… what a cry baby), except for post play on offense. Duke has better scorers and shooters from the perimeter (not hard to do because UNC has none), and Duke also has a great defense including great team inside defense.
Defense is the first area I see a drastic difference. Duke has played great defense this year aside from a few games where they allowed too many easy buckets (i.e. G’town). UNC, on the other hand, has had no defense to speak of this season. UNC gives up 74 ppg on the season, but in the last 5 games they have allowed 77. In years past this would not be an issue because they had the talent on offense to score in the 90’s and the tempo they played allowed for opponents to get more possessions. This year however that is not the case. In their last 5 games UNC is averaging 69 ppg and it is not like they have been playing defensive juggernauts (Maryland, Wake, and NC St allow a ton of points). Aside from the obvious that UNC has to play better defense to win, I think they could pose a problem with their bigs inside altering shots. Duke is notorious for three point shooting, but this year they have been more of a slashing team that gets to the line. With Thompson, Davis, and Henson, UNC has the ability to make Duke one dimensional.
The next area of concern in this game is the overall matchup problems that will be created. Duke has the advantage on the perimeter when it comes to shooting, but Marcus Ginyard for UNC is known for his lock down defense. He should be able to check Singler for most of the game and make it tough for him to score. As a fan that has watched every game, I know that Singler is one to force shots that aren’t there, so Ginyard’s defense will be an advantage for UNC. The one matchup problem UNC poses is on the inside. They are huge, but missing Zeller does help Duke. Both teams have a big rotation of players that play inside, but UNC has the advantage. Deion Thompson vs. Lance Thomas will be key tonight. Thompson is UNC’s only real threat to score every possession and he has a size advantage over Thomas. Although he has less size, Thomas is a very underrated defender. He has shut down Trevor Booker twice this season which is no easy task. The key in this matchup will be if Thomas can defend without picking up the cheap fouls that he is prone to committing. Ed Davis is underachieving this year, but he could have a big game tonight. Duke has the Plumlee brothers inside, but neither one of them have seemed to master the art of blocking out. Zoubek is a nonfactor for me because he is a waste of a 7’ body, although he is good for about 4 offensive boards a game. Henson is probably UNC’s most athletic player, so between their three main bigs, they have the advantage. Rebounding will be huge in this game. UNC must outrebound Duke to have a chance because it is tough for them to hit 60% of their shots, and if Duke outrebounds they will win going away.
Scheyer/Smith vs. Drew/Graves is another matchup of interest. I combined the 4 because the defensive matchups will change during the game. Scoring wise Duke takes this one as well. Also, Drew has hands like two left feet and has turned the ball over a lot this season without much scoring production. Graves is the Tarholes one deep threat. Though a threat, he has not shown consistency to hit shots. Smith has been awesome this year in every phase of the game. He is too quick to face guard to closely, but if you play off he is shooting 44% from three. As always with Duke, outside shooting will be key, and these two guys will have to lead the charge. I mentioned Singler vs. Ginyard earlier, but I want to touch on it again. Ginyard is having to play a bigger role on offense this season, which in my opinion has hurt his defense just a tad. What makes this matchup even more in UNC’s favor is Singler’s struggles in shooting the three this year. By not shooting the three with any consistency, Ginyard will be able to play off and take away his driving ability. Singler must knock down a few jumpers early to keep Ginyard honest.
Consistency, this has been a term lacking from everyone’s vocabulary when talking about Duke. This brings up my next area of concern. Which Duke team will we see? Will we see the same inconsistent (or consistently bad, whichever way you want to look at it) road team, or the team that has dominated at home? Man-to-man, if Duke plays their game there is no reason they lose this game because their talent overwhelms UNC’s talent. But…. As we all know, Duke has been bad on the road. Most of the poor play has stemmed from allowing easy baskets by committing turnovers. Scheyer has not been himself on the road. He has struggled with his shot at some points and he has turned the ball over. He will be the key to tonights game. He must shoot the ball well, take care of the ball, and check Graves on defense and not allow him to get an open look. If he does this then Duke has a great chance to take this game by double figures.
The last area of concern is the Rivalry itself. Like I stated several times above: it does not matter what these teams records are. Both teams will come out with intensity, the Dean Dome will be buzzing, and nerves will be high. This is the game that both teams have circled since the schedule was released. While the air has been sucked out just a bit by UNC’s performance as of late, it is still Duke vs. UNC. What most people, me included, consider the best rivalry in all of college basketball, and some consider one of the best rivalries in all of sports. UNC will be ready. Duke will enhance their chances of victory if they can come out hot and get a lead early.
I expect Duke to come out with a lot of energy than they have in the last few road games. With this increased energy will com increased nerves for both sides. Whichever team overcomes the early jitters first will win this game. Also, if this game is close in the end and Duke has the lead they have the advantage in FT shooting and can stretch their lead. Last time I checked they were number 1 in the nation in team FT shooting. My lean is Duke -5.5, but not as easily as some are thinking.
Best of luck to all tonight (unless you are on UNC ML ), and I hope this helped some people out.
Oh yeah..... AND TO HELL WITH UNC!!!!!
I’m not going to go into the usual home/road splits analysis in this game because everyone knows Duke has played poorly on the road and that UNC has played poorly every game for the last 10-12 games. And I’m sure most people would agree that this is a mismatch, but I don’t think it is as big of a mismatch as some might think and I’m going to tell you why. On paper, this game is a huge mismatch and with the line at 5.5 to an amateur it looks like a gift from the Heavens. But as I have said in previous threads this week, that you can throw records and stats out of the window in games of this magnitude.
The first argument I have heard for this game being a blowout is that UNC’s season is over. They cannot make it into the tourney. I have two retorts to that. First, a win against Duke will go a long way to put the Tarholes names back in the mix for the big dance. Second, say their season is over and chances are shot, a win against your archrival would at least salvage something from this season. The second argument is that Duke is flat out a better team. To this I completely agree. They are better in every facet of the game (especially coaching!!!! Sorry had to take a jab at Ole’ Roy… what a cry baby), except for post play on offense. Duke has better scorers and shooters from the perimeter (not hard to do because UNC has none), and Duke also has a great defense including great team inside defense.
Defense is the first area I see a drastic difference. Duke has played great defense this year aside from a few games where they allowed too many easy buckets (i.e. G’town). UNC, on the other hand, has had no defense to speak of this season. UNC gives up 74 ppg on the season, but in the last 5 games they have allowed 77. In years past this would not be an issue because they had the talent on offense to score in the 90’s and the tempo they played allowed for opponents to get more possessions. This year however that is not the case. In their last 5 games UNC is averaging 69 ppg and it is not like they have been playing defensive juggernauts (Maryland, Wake, and NC St allow a ton of points). Aside from the obvious that UNC has to play better defense to win, I think they could pose a problem with their bigs inside altering shots. Duke is notorious for three point shooting, but this year they have been more of a slashing team that gets to the line. With Thompson, Davis, and Henson, UNC has the ability to make Duke one dimensional.
The next area of concern in this game is the overall matchup problems that will be created. Duke has the advantage on the perimeter when it comes to shooting, but Marcus Ginyard for UNC is known for his lock down defense. He should be able to check Singler for most of the game and make it tough for him to score. As a fan that has watched every game, I know that Singler is one to force shots that aren’t there, so Ginyard’s defense will be an advantage for UNC. The one matchup problem UNC poses is on the inside. They are huge, but missing Zeller does help Duke. Both teams have a big rotation of players that play inside, but UNC has the advantage. Deion Thompson vs. Lance Thomas will be key tonight. Thompson is UNC’s only real threat to score every possession and he has a size advantage over Thomas. Although he has less size, Thomas is a very underrated defender. He has shut down Trevor Booker twice this season which is no easy task. The key in this matchup will be if Thomas can defend without picking up the cheap fouls that he is prone to committing. Ed Davis is underachieving this year, but he could have a big game tonight. Duke has the Plumlee brothers inside, but neither one of them have seemed to master the art of blocking out. Zoubek is a nonfactor for me because he is a waste of a 7’ body, although he is good for about 4 offensive boards a game. Henson is probably UNC’s most athletic player, so between their three main bigs, they have the advantage. Rebounding will be huge in this game. UNC must outrebound Duke to have a chance because it is tough for them to hit 60% of their shots, and if Duke outrebounds they will win going away.
Scheyer/Smith vs. Drew/Graves is another matchup of interest. I combined the 4 because the defensive matchups will change during the game. Scoring wise Duke takes this one as well. Also, Drew has hands like two left feet and has turned the ball over a lot this season without much scoring production. Graves is the Tarholes one deep threat. Though a threat, he has not shown consistency to hit shots. Smith has been awesome this year in every phase of the game. He is too quick to face guard to closely, but if you play off he is shooting 44% from three. As always with Duke, outside shooting will be key, and these two guys will have to lead the charge. I mentioned Singler vs. Ginyard earlier, but I want to touch on it again. Ginyard is having to play a bigger role on offense this season, which in my opinion has hurt his defense just a tad. What makes this matchup even more in UNC’s favor is Singler’s struggles in shooting the three this year. By not shooting the three with any consistency, Ginyard will be able to play off and take away his driving ability. Singler must knock down a few jumpers early to keep Ginyard honest.
Consistency, this has been a term lacking from everyone’s vocabulary when talking about Duke. This brings up my next area of concern. Which Duke team will we see? Will we see the same inconsistent (or consistently bad, whichever way you want to look at it) road team, or the team that has dominated at home? Man-to-man, if Duke plays their game there is no reason they lose this game because their talent overwhelms UNC’s talent. But…. As we all know, Duke has been bad on the road. Most of the poor play has stemmed from allowing easy baskets by committing turnovers. Scheyer has not been himself on the road. He has struggled with his shot at some points and he has turned the ball over. He will be the key to tonights game. He must shoot the ball well, take care of the ball, and check Graves on defense and not allow him to get an open look. If he does this then Duke has a great chance to take this game by double figures.
The last area of concern is the Rivalry itself. Like I stated several times above: it does not matter what these teams records are. Both teams will come out with intensity, the Dean Dome will be buzzing, and nerves will be high. This is the game that both teams have circled since the schedule was released. While the air has been sucked out just a bit by UNC’s performance as of late, it is still Duke vs. UNC. What most people, me included, consider the best rivalry in all of college basketball, and some consider one of the best rivalries in all of sports. UNC will be ready. Duke will enhance their chances of victory if they can come out hot and get a lead early.
I expect Duke to come out with a lot of energy than they have in the last few road games. With this increased energy will com increased nerves for both sides. Whichever team overcomes the early jitters first will win this game. Also, if this game is close in the end and Duke has the lead they have the advantage in FT shooting and can stretch their lead. Last time I checked they were number 1 in the nation in team FT shooting. My lean is Duke -5.5, but not as easily as some are thinking.
Best of luck to all tonight (unless you are on UNC ML ), and I hope this helped some people out.
Oh yeah..... AND TO HELL WITH UNC!!!!!