lmk ill escrow my part.
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I'm not hedging, just spit balling the idea.Originally posted by 2SweeetComment -
i don't have an opinion on the hedge. it can be a $10 wager, or $1000. some people strictly bet to win something, others are willing to accept a possible loss for the thrill. to each his own.
my thing is with misiorowski. he had a 4.36 era coming up last year. it was 3.31 this season heading into may, before he went on his ridiculous tear. and before this tear, his fastball seemed to be sitting in the 98-99 range for the most part. occasionally dipping to 96, or topping 101. lately? he's consistently hitting 101-104. that's absurd and unheard of. and it's sure as hell unrealistic in my opinion to continue. either he's going to get dead arm, or an obvious injury that comes with that power strain. i think his fastball percentage is in the high 40% range, which is a brutal amount for wear and tear.
once he dips back down to the high 90s, and/or has to go with more offspeed action, he's clearly hittable to a degree and not a CY young type. the question is; how long can he gas that arm out for? the rest of june, july, august, september.. that's a big ass time frame. as is, he's not going to have a better WAR than sanchez. he's not going to have as many quality starts. he won't be close with innings pitched.
misiorowski's odds are basically tied in to him being untouchable the rest of the way. i see no possible way that comes close to happening. sanchez can just keep pitching like the way he has been for the past 2+ seasons.Comment -
Sanchez, -180 as a road fave against Washington.
Phils, who are guaranteed to have a ninth inning at bat, are -110 (man-to-man pick 'em) on the run line.
CJ Abrams is back in the lineup, the Natty's have sticks at the top of the order, don't sleep on them.
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Washington jumped Sanchez early and often last night.
Nattys scored four in the first, went up 5-0 before the end of the third inning last night.
The Phillies scored 10 runs later, as they won 10-5, Sanchez takes an ugly, ND 10-5 final win.
Misiorowski slated to start tonight at home v. Cubs.
Miz and the Brews open up as a -260 home favorite.
No thanks, I'll just watch, I can't lay -260 on any regular mid-season game, especially against that Cub lineup.Comment -
105.5 mph?! The Miz takes heat to another level in Brewers win
The kid is a freak.
Watch the first at-bat game, Miz throws six pitches to PCA.
All six for strikes.
Miz starts PCA with a 103 MPH heater, then 104, the third pitch was the record breaker (105.5 MPH)
The sixth pitch made PCA look like a dope. Miz drops in a 90-MPH 'off-speed' job that makes PCA look like a little leaguer.
(First at-bat last night)
Miz did have spotty control problems mid-game; he did walk four, considering that the Chicago lineup is stacked (Swanson is having the best week in the history of nine-hole batters since Scott Brosious), it was still a QS, by no means a clean start.
107 pitches, 69 for strikes, is a pedestrian like 64 percent.Pitching IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA BF Pit Str Ctct StS StL GB FB LD Jacob Misiorowski, W (9-3) 6 2 1 1 4 8 1 1.45 23 107 69 35 17 17 8 3 0
Only three flyballs, and none of them were liners, is impressive.
With the possible exceptions of Steve Carlton, Pedro, Greg Maddux, or Bob Gibson, not one pitcher is going to be flawless 20+ times in a season's worth of starts.
Skeenes was just ordinary again last night, Sanchez didn't have it the other night, and Skubal has been trending downward as of late.
Pitchers like Bob Gibson and Pedro Martinez are once-in-a-lifetime unicorns; not one pitcher is automatic.
I know how hard it's going to be for Sanchez and Miz down the stretch, the opposition is now 'working' the studs, get those PCs up in the mid 70s by the fifth inning.Comment -
Mix with 105+ mph pitches have caused a heat dome for the East Coast.Comment -
Name Tm GS P/ST IP/ST IP ERA HR H BB WHIP OBP AVG SLG SO SO:9IP WAR Jacob Misiorowski MIL 16 92.2 6.2 99 1.4545 5 49 27 0.77 0.2207 0.1436 0.1994 146 13.3 4.5 Cristopher Sanchez PHI 17 95.6 6.5 110 2.1272 8 101 21 1.11 0.2767 0.2382 0.3419 127 10.4 5.1 Chase Burns CIN 16 92.6 5.7 91.2 2.3563 11 70 29 1.08 0.2704 0.2077 0.3561 112 11.0` 4.1
Misiorowski and Sanchez are tied for the league lead in wins with nine.
Both starters are 9-3,
Miz has started 16 games, and Sanchez has made 17 starts.
Miz leads the league in strikeouts, ERA, K/9IP, WHIP, fewest hits, and home runs allowed.
Sanchez still has the better WAR, but that's been cut by more than half in the past two weeks.
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Sanchez and the Phils are a -227-home favorite tonight vs. Pittsburgh.
I'll pass. The Pirates have been a difficult fade lately.
Go figure, that the Pirates are having much better seasons than both the New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox.
Six games better than Boston, and eight games better than New York.
And the Pirates have been raking all week, scoring 47 runs in their last six games, going 4- 2, without Oneil Cruz in the middle of that order. If the Knicks can win a championship, then why not the Pirates? Those fans are starving, too, for something to go crazy over. Sadly, the Bucco's are buried behind the Brewers, who are stacked, and as much as I hate to say it, the Cubs are also on another tier as well.
At least they're winning.
Oh, not for nothing, the New York Mets payroll is 365 million (est), 61 million of that is Juan Soto's
The Pirates' payroll is 106 million (est)
If Billy Beane were in Pittsburgh, he'd say something like this: "The Mets are outspending us at a 3.5-to-1 ratio, and we have won eight more games. I'm paying 2.4 million per win (43-42), while Mr. Cohen over there in New York City is paying 10.4 million per win (35-50).
I love Billy Beane, and he'd let you know that you're outspending him 3.50 to 1.00 while Billy is spending 4.5 times less per win, but he'll do it diplomatically, without being a jackass.Comment -
The Pirates have been playing horrible the past 3 weeks? This was stealing todays at -1.5 with Sanchize and the Phillies/ I didnt read this earlier. Miz better stay healthy Sanchez isn't going anywhere. It's Miz to lose though. Personally I think Sanchez is a more complete and better pitcher than Miz but Speed sellsComment -
The Pirates are my favorite team, and they should have a much better record if it wasn't for the middle relief. In my opinion, they might have the worst middle relief in the MLB right now.
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Funny you should mention that, growing up, I was a catcher, and as a kid, the two MLB catchers I gravitated towards were Tony Pena and Manny Sanguillen,. I have a low center of gravity like Pena, and I would emulate him behind the plate.
Yeah, I'm not a Pirate fan in the classic sense, but I've always liked them,
I watched the last two games of the Mariners series, where the Pirates won 11-1 and 5-1.
Pitt was raking,
In the Phillies game the other night, Pitt was fortunate that Nola imploded, shame on him, a veteran starter like Aaron Nola should know what to do with a 5-0 lead after three innings.
I've always liked Nola. I'm not ragging on him, but he's finished.
Do you realize Nola has made every rotation start for Philly for seven consecutive seasons?
In 2018 and 2019, Nola started 33 and 34 games, respectively. From 2021 to 2024, he started 32, 32, 32, and 33 games.
He made every start in the COVID-shortened 2020 season as well.
His right arm is spent; he was throwing 3000+ pitches a season, every season for the better part of a decade, there's nothing left, but he went out there every fifth day.
To your point, Pitt needs to address that bullpen.
The team bullpen metrics are at or below league average.
2026 Major League Baseball Relief Pitching | Baseball-Reference.com
Ashcraft and Skeenes, on top of the rotation, are more than fine; Bubba is hit or miss.
Did you see where Skubal and Detroit schooled the Yankees, and their boy wonder, Schlittler
Tigers hit three HRs in the first inning alone, four homers in the first three innings.
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Misiorowski was scheduled to make this start vs. Cincinnati tonight.
Pat Murphy and his coaches pushed him back a day; he'll go tomorrow in the series finale. He's not hurt, I don't know this for a fact, but I'd bet cash the reason is a simple one, the Brewers brass wants to give him an extra day of rest.
Setting up a dream match-up between Chase Burns and Miz, if you like pitching, and I love pitching, that game is a must-see, appointment TV.
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The top five major league leaders in the SP WAR metric all pitch in the National League.
Miz (2) Burns (3)
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very interesting 1st half. my dark horse (wheeler) has climbed all the way towards the top. sanchez took a big ding getting lit up by the royals. misiorowski's arm is tired.
sanchez: 11-4, 14 qs, 2.62 era, 1.19 whip, 127.1 ip, 10.2 k/9, 5.4 WAR
wheeler: 10-1, 11 qs, 2.13 era, 0.89 whip, 93.0 ip, 10.5 k/9, 4.8 WAR
misiorowski: 10-4, 12 qs, 1.62 era, 0.76 whip, 111.0 ip, 13.5 k/9, 4.2 WAR
sanchez has the most wins, quality starts, innings pitched and WAR.
wheeler has the best record, best quality start percentage and 2nd best WAR.
misiorowski has the best era, whip, k/9 and 4th best WAR.
i'm still expecting my original view to happen. misioroski's innings will be cut down either by team decision or injury. he's given up 4 HR and 8 runs (4 earned) in his last 2 starts, followed by arm fatigue. he's not expected to start against the marlins either when they come back from the break. saw this article a couple weeks ago..
However, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand is predicting that the Brewers will make a decision with Misiorowski that, while reasonable from a team and health perspective, would be a huge hit to his Cy Young chances this season.
"Jacob Misiorowski is a Cy Young favorite in the NL, but he's already thrown 104 innings, leaving him only 25 1/3 away from last season's career high," Feinsand writes. "The Brewers figure to monitor his innings during the second half, so the idea of him getting anywhere close to 200 seems far-fetched."
Feinsand is predicting that the Brewers will limit Misiorowski's innings this season in the second half after the All-Star break as a way to keep him healthy.
If they do so, and he falls well below 200 innings, as Feinsand is predicting, then it will be very difficult to win the NL Cy Young Award.
Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies has made 18 starts in 2026; Misiorowski has made 17 so far. Sanchez leads all of MLB with 117 innings, while Misiorowski has 104 innings. That's 13 innings difference already, and that gap might widen.
Even though Misiorowski might have a better ERA (1.47 right now, best in MLB), if Sanchez can lower his 2.00 ERA a little further, while having north of 200 innings pitched as he did a year ago with 202, then his Cy Young chances would increase.
This might be a tricky situation for the Brewers, as on one hand, seeing Misiorowski win the NL Cy Young would be incredible, but it might come at great risk, since he'd need to throw a lot more innings than he's ever done before.
He will beat that 129.1-inning career-high he set a year ago, as he's already up to 104 innings pitched this season, with all of July, August, and September to still go.
But reaching 200 innings, which Sanchez is sure to reach if he's healthy, might not happen based on this prediction from Feinsand.
Milwaukee being careful with Misiorowski's innings makes sense from a health perspective, but it could significantly hurt his NL Cy Young odds.
This will be a very interesting storyline to monitor as the 2026 season rolls along, and as the innings count for Misiorowski increases with each start.Comment -
That's some quality analysis. Q: Do you hold a ticket on Wheeler?Originally posted by dxpWhere's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Originally posted by dxp
Nice write-up.
Astute post.
Source: FanDuel
7/9
Attached FilesComment -
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Miz likely wins it but the latest injury is a concern as well as a bit of regression.
Zach Wheeler at +2500 seems like a heck of a value.
Skenes and Sanchez have fallen off the past month or so.Comment -
i'm not a futures type bettor, but i dropped 50 on sanchez (+550) and 50 on wheeler (+2500) just because the odds are so whacked out. after yesterday's game, the odds on wheeler went from +2500 to +1600. i'm curious if anything will appear 'off' tomorrow, or if we see a significant drop in velocity next start with misiorowski.
Status Day-To-Day
1 day ago
Misiorowski (arm) is expected to resume throwing Tuesday but won't make a start next weekend against the Marlins in the Brewers' first series coming out of the All-Star break, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.Comment -
You spotted Wheeler in this thread about three weeks ago.Originally posted by dxp
As I like to say (and I say a lot of things), "Good eagle eye, Scout"
Props.
(IMO)
The best way to make money in this game is by spotting sleeping dogs right before they trend through the roof.
That's easier said than done. On top of everything else, you need to be a visionary to succeed. Very few do succeed; the ones that do have raked in beaucoup bank.
Rarely do you hear from or about them.
They don't want or need the publicity.
The ones you do hear from rarely succeed.
They will tell you how great they are, though.
I call them touts; touts are scum, they're scummy people.Comment -
ditto. thread exists because you saw the value in misiorowski. i didn't even think he would make it this far as part of the top 3, let alone be the favorite. whether you cash out, hedge or let it ride.. it was a great find and share.Originally posted by stevenash
You spotted Wheeler in this thread about three weeks ago.
As I like to say (and I say a lot of things), "Good eagle eye, Scout"
Props.
(IMO)
The best way to make money in this game is by spotting sleeping dogs right before they trend through the roof.
That's easier said than done. On top of everything else, you need to be a visionary to succeed. Very few do succeed; the ones that do have raked in beaucoup bank.
Rarely do you hear from or about them.
They don't want or need the publicity.
The ones you do hear from rarely succeed.
They will tell you how great they are, though.
I call them touts; touts are scum, they're scummy people.
just as a fan of baseball, i feel like every game these 3 guys start now are basically going to be mini playoff matches with how they'll jockey for position in the CY race.Comment -
Rooting for you guys. Hope you cash:
*Miz was certainly value early.
*Wheeler looks like a solid Value bet now. Teams are very cautious w/ young arms (like Miz) nowadays.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Rooting for you guys. Hope you cash:
*Miz was certainly value early.
*Wheeler looks like a solid Value bet now. Teams are very cautious w/ young arms (like Miz) nowadays.Comment -
NewsOriginally posted by JAKEPEAVY21
Jul 17, 2026, 9:53 AM
Misiorowski (arm) is likely to make a start during next week's series against the Mets, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports.
ANALYSIS: Misiorowski had some right arm fatigue following his July 7 start in St. Louis, preventing from taking his final turn in the rotation the Sunday before the All-Star break. The Brewers elected to extend Misiorowski's rest by not scheduling him to start this weekend versus the Marlins, but he's in line to take the ball early next week. Between the bout with arm fatigue and a career-high innings pace, Misiorowski's workload will likely be monitored carefully by the Brewers in the second half.Comment -
Jacob Misiorowski -220 vs. NY Mets (Peralta)
Is Miz on a pitch count?
Sanchez and Philly -150 vs. LA (Sheehan)
Both Milwaukee and Philly are home favorites.
Terrific night for hardball for the seamheads.Comment -
Miz only went 4 innings last night. He did not start many games last season and the injury and usage(they might want to limit his innings in 2nd half) are valid concerns. I feel like his odds to win will continue to shrink as they handle him with kid gloves in the 2nd half, leaving the door wide open for someone else to win.
I like Sanchez and think he is a very good starter but my money is on Wheeler finishing ahead of him in the Cy Young vote this year. Wheeler is more dominant and gets more strikeouts while Sanchez pitches to more contact. Sanchez has also had a handful of outings where he has been hit hard. The one thing about Wheeler that concerns me is that he missed the beginning of the season coming off an injury and has 6 fewer starts than Sanchez.Comment -
Wheeler is going tonight vs the Dodgers. He could get hit hard but a gem here could boost his chances some.Comment -
Sanchez made Ohtani look awful last night.Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21Comment -
Your Royals made Sanchez look like batting practice a few starts ago....9 earned runs.Originally posted by stevenashComment -
Nasher, rooting for you and your Miz future but it seems like they are really going to handle him with kid gloves in the 2nd half? If he makes all(even most) of his remaining starts, you are in a great spot. If they shut him down for a prolonged stretch or limit his innings/pitches every start(4 innings and 65 pitches last outing), it opens the door wide open for someone else to steal it.
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^
This is what I think, JP.
The Brewers and Pat Murphy are all in it to win it.
I personally think Murphy is, without a doubt, the most underrated manager in MLB.
He had success on the D1 level (Notre Dame and Arizona State)
He brought that D1 player-focused approach style of managing to Milwaukee, and the team is loving it.
Since you can't tell Miz to dial back the velocity, I think the coaches (and Murphy) will have him on an inning pitched/pitch count until Milwaukee clinches a post-season spot in September, then Murphy may rest him the last two weeks of the regular season.
That seems like the logical approach: preserve the arm.
The Brewers are stacked, pitching-wise
The Brewers have the best starting pitching in MLB (using team ERA as the go-to metric in this example)Season Tm G ERA H ER HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG Total MIL 101 3.36173001 398 190 61 155 579 0.21272047 0.282882011 0.360769641 Total LAD 102 3.40282686 452 214 74 157 552 0.216267942 0.277777777 0.371770334 Total DET 101 3.54896907 444 204 56 151 494 0.227809132 0.290518449 0.375577219 Total SEA 102 3.60102157 517 235 72 133 576 0.233830845 0.281802864 0.383536861 Total NYY 100 3.63494051 465 215 67 170 539 0.231804586 0.296246042 0.384346959 Total TBR 100 3.65700809 440 201 66 126 436 0.235168359 0.288461538 0.39230358 Total CLE 102 3.747785 504 235 76 194 545 0.239089184 0.304422498 0.400853889 Total BOS 99 3.87719298 480 221 62 163 497 0.245649948 0.309369202 0.394063459
And their bullpen is top four.
Season Tm ERA H ER HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG Total BOS 3.08783166 304 125 39 123 347 0.225018504 0.294314381 0.353811991 Total NYY 3.09005629 291 122 33 132 334 0.221461187 0.299729364 0.342465753 Total ATL 3.14120782 298 131 38 126 364 0.217042971 0.286750164 0.340859431 Total SEA 3.53164557 286 124 26 121 299 0.24465355 0.32408102 0.363558597 Total MIL 3.54545455 335 156 39 165 403 0.228357191 0.308671922 0.357191547 Total SDP 3.66458658 378 174 46 167 427 0.237139272 0.315114333 0.372020075
Point being, the staff isn't Misiorowski, and four guys named Mo.
That staff is deep.
The Brews can skip two Miz starts and not miss a beat.
And the lineup is deep as well.
I do have a small WS future Brewers +1200, which I bought with the Miz futures ticket.Comment -
^^
Agree about Murphy, what's not to like? The guy is a really good manager and the brewers organization continues to win with whoever they put on the field. They exceed expectations year in and year out. I'd love to see them make a deep playoff run.
As you know, I can't stand the Dodgers but how on earth is Yamamoto such long odds for the Cy Young? He is another that seems to have value at more than +2000?
I'm seeing Wheeler is currently +750 at BOL...congrats to those that got him at silly odds as you will have a sweat the rest of the season.Comment -
Good stuff, Nash. I'll be rooting for MILW. I sometimes feel like it's Dodger overload.Originally posted by stevenashWhere's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
YIKES!
Overnight line posted
Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers) -350 Kyle Freeman (Rockies) DK
I don't care if it's Bob Gibson vs. The Bad News Bears
I don't lay -350 on any regular-season late July MLB game.
If the unthinkable happens and, say, Miz turns the ball over to the bullpen with a 3-1 seventh-inning lead, and the Rox get 3 scratch runs late, well, needless to say, you're screwed.
You paid -350, and even though you got that rock-solid performance you overpaid for, you're still out -350, and even if you win your next three straight bets, you're still - .5* (1/2 unit)
If I were to use Miz today, it would only be in a two-team money parlay with another ace.
For example, Miz -350 and a -180 two-team money line parlay pays 1.01 (even money)
-350 on a standalone wager is bankroll suicide.
The only way I'd consider laying -350 is if the Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, is toeing the rubber against the Little League tee ballers.
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^^
Miz's usage and pitch count today should tell a lot as far as their plan on handling him in the 2nd half.
He should get a lot of K's today as the Rockies strike out more than most teams.Comment -
MizOriginally posted by JAKEPEAVY21
9+ Ks -109
10+ Ks +151
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