Jacob Misiorowski NL Cy Young +340

[stevenash]

The rest of the world is catching up to the MLB geeks to the fact that this kid was born with a lightning rod for a right arm.

His first 20 pitches Saturday night were 100 MPH+
In six May starts, he allowed just one run (0.27)




6-2 Overall, 12 games, all in starts, averaging 14 k:9 IP ratio, 1.65 ERA, 0.78 WH/IP ratio

+340 (as of 5/28 DK) is value +. +200 would still be a value.
The feeling here is that by July 4, his Cy Young odds will be bet down to +180

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The rest of the world is catching up to the MLB geeks to the fact that this kid was born with a lightning rod for a right arm.

His first 20 pitches Saturday night were 100 MPH+
In six May starts, he allowed just one run (0.27)




6-2 Overall, 12 games, all in starts, averaging 14 k:9 IP ratio, 1.65 ERA, 0.78 WH/IP ratio

+340 (as of 5/28 DK) is value +. +200 would still be a value.
The feeling here is that by July 4, his Cy Young odds will be bet down to +180

I think you're right. Guy is really trending up.

[stevenash]

^
He's an innings eater too (by today's standards)
In this day and age of the relief bullpen, elite inning-eating starters are considered unicorns.

Brewers *should* make a deep October run this year; they can compete with LA, SD, and Philly in a best-of-seven NLCS.

Brews have the right balance of arms and sticks, and the NL Central race will be good all summer long.



Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski produces historic month of May

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nash, I think you're on to something. I think it's a +EV bet.

I've rarely seen a Pitcher who is improving at this rate. The MPH is truly un-precedented.

Spoke to a friend who met Mis. Said that he's pretty grounded. Seems to be in the right setting w/ this Manager. I'll be rooting for the Brewers. And I'll be rooting for your bet!

[Art Vandelay]

Welcome aboard boys! Fun team to watch and Miz is almost unhittable right now - Harrison not far behind btw...! Cheers to a Cy Young winner in Brewtown

[dxp]

he's an awesome young pitcher. personally though, i think he has very little to no chance to win the CY this year. his pitch count is frequently pushing the limit around the 6th-7th inning. and that's with him dominating and giving up only a handful of hits/walks. he hasn't been able to go deeper than 7 in his career yet.

sanchez has already raced past everyone with a 4.3 WAR, after leading all pitchers last year with an 8.0 WAR. burns and mis have a 3.0 so far as the next closest NL pitchers. realistically, the only way to beat sanchez this season is if he gets hurt. skenes was so off the charts last year that he was able to jump him. mis can't do that though, at least not yet.

[stevenash]

he's an awesome young pitcher. personally though, i think he has very little to no chance to win the CY this year. his pitch count is frequently pushing the limit around the 6th-7th inning. and that's with him dominating and giving up only a handful of hits/walks. he hasn't been able to go deeper than 7 in his career yet.

sanchez has already raced past everyone with a 4.3 WAR, after leading all pitchers last year with an 8.0 WAR. burns and mis have a 3.0 so far as the next closest NL pitchers. realistically, the only way to beat sanchez this season is if he gets hurt. skenes was so off the charts last year that he was able to jump him. mis can't do that though, at least not yet.

We agree, Sanchez is the front runner, and rightfully so. His WAR is a full win ahead of Miz.
I was fortunate that Sanchez fell to me in the sixth round; you could tell he was on the cusp of a breakout season.
Just look at his efficiency numbers from '24-'25, and he's exceeding '26 expectations (to date)

Miz never really snuck up on the hard-core MLB enthusiasts; that heater of his was touted when he was a sophomore in HS.
His K rate was off the charts last season, too. He's been a strikeout artist since he was ten years old; his problem was the BB: 9IP ratio was high, wicked high. All of a sudden, he's gone from a 5 BB per 9 IP ratio and 12 K per nine innings pitched to 14 per 9 K ratio, and less than 2.5 BB per nine innings pitched. Nobody, unless you're his personal pitching coach, could have seen *that* kind of progression.

And yes, to your other point as well, Miz has already missed time due to a creaky knee, and flame-throwers that toss 100 MPH heat-seeking missiles 20+ times a game usually don't have a Major League shelf life longer than eight years, give or take.
If healthy, IF healthy, Miz's ceiling is atmospheric.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting MIZ should be a +140 favorite to win the Cy Young Award, not as long as Sanchez and Chris Sale are in the league. Chris Sale keeps on doing Chris Sale things, and he's getting overshadowed by the young guns.
What I am saying is, at +340, there's value.

What Mason Miller is doing out of San Diego's bullpen this season is jaw-dropping as well.
I'm fine with a closer winning a Cy Young Award, but (IMO) that closer needs to be head and shoulders above the best starting pitchers for the season.

The same applies to strict DH's that rarely fielded a position.
No primary DH has ever won an MVP. Frank Thomas went back-to-back, but as a primary 1B back in the day, he later became a full-time DH. Edgar should have won MVP in '95 as a primary DH, but the old-school voters have trouble voting for DHs for MVP.

The only difference of opinion we have here (and it's not major) is in this day and age of the bullpen back game, no pitcher averages more than 6.6 innings per start (Sanchez 6.6), Miz averages 6.0 full innings per start, and as I stated earlier, 6 innings per start in this day and age is considered 'an innings eater.'

Side by side, both pitchers have appeared in 12 games, all as starters.
Miz and Sanchez are 1-2 in strikeouts (108-95)
Sanchez has thrown 79 innings, Miz 71.
MIZ's ERA of 1.65 and 0.79 WHIP is comparable to Sanchez's stellar 1.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP

It's like, what do you prefer, the Ferrari or the Lamborghini?

Thank you for your astute post.
Best of luck going forward.

[stevenash]

Miz last night. 7 IP 0 ER (1 run allowed on an error), for all intents and purposes, seven 'scoreless' innings.
8 K, 4 hits allowed, and 3 walks.
The walk rate is inching up just a tad, not at an alarming rate, though.

Sanchez's last start (Wednesday night) was equally impressive
7 IP 1 ER 8 K 4 hits allowed, 1 walk

Take away two walks, and those two pitching lines are identical.
As previously stated, I'm not suggesting Miz is a stone-cold lock to win Cy Young, what I am saying (IMO)
is +340 is super value.

100 games left to play, I'll post some detailed analytics after all the Sunday games are completed.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nash, your info is good. Money-line Dog bettors get a good feel for value.

Your post is spot-on. If you feel like Miz true odds = 1/3, then +340 is printing $$.

[stevenash]

When I write up an analytical comp piece, I'll usually qualify my post by saying "Depending on what metric you use..."
Meaning some analysts place a higher premium on one category over another.

I've always been big on the WH/IP ratio. The opposition cannot score a run if you keep them off base.
WAR is (aka WARP, and VORP before that) a sabermetric used to determine the value of a player vs. any replacement player (position by position)

As of 6/8, Sanchez's value is 4.7 wins more than any replacement starting pitcher, if Sanchez were to go on a 30-day DL, which is tops in the NL.
Miz, 3.4 wins second best in the NL
Miz's ERA of 1.46 is the league's best. Sanchez's ERA is 1.50, second best.
A 0.04 difference in earned average is what we like to call at work a statistical dead heat.

Miz, on the other hand, is the league leader in keeping batters off base.
Miz has allowed just 63 total walks and hits in 78 innings of work (0.808 WH/IP), Sanchez, 89 total walks and hits allowed in his 86.3 innings of work (1.089 WH/IP)

As I like to say, "Depending on the metric you place a premium on...."
I'd say, all things considered, Sanchez has a slight edge over Miz after 13 starts, 64 games, by no means a demonstrative edge.
Both pitchers go every fifth day; they'll get 19 more turns to settle this.






Not for nothing, I love a high-volume strikeout artist, but I don't think a high SO: IP ratio should carry that much weight.

Crash Davis thinks strikeouts are boring and fascist; he thinks groundballs are more democratic.








As expected, Miz's odds for Cy Young have plummeted from +340 to +200 in a week.
I don't like to tie up a lot of cash for four months while riding out a futures prop.
I did manage a 50-dollar ticket last Wednesday at +320. I believe anything over +300 is gone, that ship has left the dock,

As per Doug Greenburg, up the road here at ESPN, Bristol.

The NL Cy Young race has gotten very interesting. Reigning winner and preseason favorite Paul Skenes is now fourth on the odds board at +950, with Cristopher Sanchez (+135) and Jacob Misiorowski (+200) emerging as the favorites after brilliant performances in May.

[dxp]

i understand your value angle, but it's just not there in my opinion. it's based on way too many factors. the main one being, sanchez getting hurt. misiorowski has no real chance unless that happens. then he would have to fight off a handful of pitchers in his radius. being such a hard thrower, he's also more susceptible to dead arm or an occasional erratic outing, which he cannot afford in the slightest. and one would think the brewers would like to limit his overall innings to a degree as the year goes along.

sanchez already has pitched 13.1 more innings because he can go deeper. he has 3 more quality starts. his WAR is significantly better. his ERA+ is better. he has a complete game shutout. he very well can be considered the best pitcher in baseball. misiorowski is nowhere near that.

ultimately, the value sits on 3 parts. one, something negative happening to sanchez. two, misiorowski continuing to be unhittable while having no restrictions. three, the rest of the limited pack that surrounds him not stepping up at all. only one of those seems realistic to me.

[ProSportsEdge]

i understand your value angle, but it's just not there in my opinion. it's based on way too many factors. the main one being, sanchez getting hurt. misiorowski has no real chance unless that happens. then he would have to fight off a handful of pitchers in his radius. being such a hard thrower, he's also more susceptible to dead arm or an occasional erratic outing, which he cannot afford in the slightest. and one would think the brewers would like to limit his overall innings to a degree as the year goes along.

sanchez already has pitched 13.1 more innings because he can go deeper. he has 3 more quality starts. his WAR is significantly better. his ERA+ is better. he has a complete game shutout. he very well can be considered the best pitcher in baseball. misiorowski is nowhere near that.

ultimately, the value sits on 3 parts. one, something negative happening to sanchez. two, misiorowski continuing to be unhittable while having no restrictions. three, the rest of the limited pack that surrounds him not stepping up at all. only one of those seems realistic to me.

Fair point. Misiorowski has looked great, but Sanchez already has the edge in workload and consistency. Too many things need to go right for Misiorowski to catch him.

[stevenash]

Do you fade the Miz later tonight at home, vs. Philly?
Brewers -260

Personally, I don't lay -260 on any MLB game.
If there is a regression, does it begin tonight?

I can get the Philles right now at +220
Hmm

[stevenash]

Complete game, one hit, 15 SO, shutout.
A masterpiece.

J. Misiorowski(W, 8-2)

9.0	1	0	0	0	15	0	95-74	1.34
9.0	1	0	0	0	15	0	95-74

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Complete game, one hit, 15 SO, shutout.
A masterpiece.

J. Misiorowski(W, 8-2)

9.0	1	0	0	0	15	0	95-74	1.34
9.0	1	0	0	0	15	0	95-74

Miz is coming up huge. Very few starts in L120 years w/ 15+ K and 0/1 Hits Allowed.

Don't want to jinx the guy. But Miz is white-hot. Is an injury coming?

[ProSportsEdge]

Miz is coming up huge. Very few starts in L120 years w/ 15+ K and 0/1 Hits Allowed.

Don't want to jinx the guy. But Miz is white-hot. Is an injury coming?

He's been unreal lately. Hopefully it's just a hot streak and not one of those cases where people start worrying about injury every time a pitcher dominates.

[stevenash]

I caught for a dozen years.
When I caught for Union, which was a D2 school back then, D3 now,
We had a kid who threw in the mid-80s, Dennis Oz.
A kid who could throw mid-80s back then was considered a flame-thrower.
I caught Denny. I cannot imagine catching a 104-mph heater.

I checked out the boxes around 9 pm last night.
I noticed that Miz had 7 k after three innings.
I had to watch that on the desktop.

The kid was electric.
Not only electric, but Miz was Greg Maddux-like efficient.
95 pitches, 74 were strikes, that's 78%.
Not a pitch was wasted.
A master class in efficiency.

That was one of the greatest pitched games I've seen since Randy Johnson.
Truth.

[Capybara]

I was so happy with my Ohtani Cy Young play at +1600 that I did early in the season.

Now I may as well pitch it into the trash, because it's over and The Miz wins.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

He's been unreal lately. Hopefully it's just a hot streak and not one of those cases where people start worrying about injury every time a pitcher dominates.

Pro, this guy's trajectory blows my mind. Have a friend who met him. By all accounts, very low-key guy who plays it cool.

[stevenash]

Through 6/14

Sanchez averages 6 2/3 innings and 96 pitches per start, through 15 starts
Misiorowski averages 6 1/3 innings and 91 pitches per start, through 14 starts.

Sanchez's WAR is still a full win better than Miz's; that gap has narrowed since last week, though.
Miz's ERA is a half run lower than Sanchez's and allows three fewer baserunners per nine innings.

Miz has a realistic chance of winning the pitching triple crown.
(SO, Wins, ERA)

Miz is the league leader in K's, ERA, and tied for the lead in the league with eight wins.

Aaron Ashby is 9-0, in 30 relief appearances (one spot start) for the Brewers, and will not qualify, unless he manages to pitch the required 162 innings

[stevenash]

Miz goes tonight (6/19) vs. Atlanta.
Brewers (Misiorowski) -168 as a road favorite.
That's an interesting game; the Braves have some sticks, and they know how to use them.

Sanchez, whom I like as well, is a bulldog. I like alpha dogs, goes to work tomorrow (6/20) vs. NYM.
There's no overnight line there as of yet, but you have to think the Phils should be around -200, give or take.

Current Cy Young odds.
If one likes Sanchez, one might want to send it in now at +220, if he throws a gem Saturday, +220 will look like super value.


Source: ESPN/DK

• Jacob Misiorowski – -140 (Brewers) – 15-strikeout complete-game shutout in Milwaukee’s first win of the series boosted his standing ESPN.
• Cristopher Sanchez – +220 (Phillies) – Struggled in Brewers’ second win, dropping from +145 earlier in the season ESPN+1.
• Dylan Cease – +290 (White Sox) – Still a strong AL contender, but not in the NL race ESPN.
• Jacob deGrom – +750 (Mets) – Veteran ace with strong track record ESPN.
• Shohei Ohtani – 12-1 (Dodgers) – Despite injury to Aaron Judge, Ohtani remains a top NL name

[Headsterx]

If he wins tonight, this would give him a big boost for CY.

[stevenash]

Miz returned to planet Earth last night.

The Braves worked the kid, which is the only way to beat him.
Atlanta had a brilliant plan going into the game, as I mentioned, they worked him.

Miz ran into a bases-loaded jam in the sixth inning that Houdini couldn't get out of, gave up a deuce, and that was that.

Date

Team

OPP

ERA

IP

H

R

ER

HR

BB

SO

NP-S

AVG

WHIP

19-Jun

MIL

@ ATL

1.45

6

5

2

2

0

1

7

91-65

0.146

0.75

Sanchez goes later today vs. NY Mets
Philadelphia (Sanchez) -188 NY Mets

[Headsterx]

I’m seeing Sanchez shutting down the Mets and making it a close race again.

[dxp]

i cringed when i saw the phils were going to face misiorowski. that game turned out exactly the way i expected it. i'm impressed he's been able to go so deep and continue to ball at such a ridiculous level this month. i keep waiting for his arm to fall off.

another horse coming from the back is wheeler. missed the first month of the season, but has been his typical self since coming back. 5th in WAR despite only having 10 starts. 8 are quality. 2.01 era/0.85 whip. those 5-6 missed starts have cost him big time. great chance at a 2 or 3 finish though if he's healthy all year.

[stevenash]

Sweet.
Fox Sports has the Philly game tonight.
So much better than watching it on the big screen than on the desktop.

[stevenash]

i cringed when i saw the phils were going to face misiorowski. that game turned out exactly the way i expected it. i'm impressed he's been able to go so deep and continue to ball at such a ridiculous level this month. i keep waiting for his arm to fall off.

another horse coming from the back is wheeler. missed the first month of the season, but has been his typical self since coming back. 5th in WAR despite only having 10 starts. 8 are quality. 2.01 era/0.85 whip. those 5-6 missed starts have cost him big time. great chance at a 2 or 3 finish though if he's healthy all year.

I've always loved Nola, but I hate to say, he's cooked.

I'm watching Chris Sale throw a gem, too, then the Brewers got two earned runs, and it looks like Chris Sale is going to be another hard-luck loser.

Three absolute studs go tonight.
Skeenes and Peralta go head-to-head vs. Sanchez.

[stevenash]

Miz, Chris Sale, Skeenes, and Sanchez all gave up two earned runs or less;
Sale gave up zero earned runs. '

Only Sanchez earned the win.
The Phillies gave Dirty Sanchez eleven early runs, and he knew how to handle it.

[stevenash]

This is what I'm thinking.
Hedging off my Miz +320 wager, buy some Sanchez at +280 (FD)
Guaranteeing a profit of at least 80 cents on the dollar.

After all, the business of business is business, right?

[2Sweeet]

Unless you have a ton of money on this why hedge? Miz is clearly winning this barring injury. I'd wait til you can get higher odds on Sanchez. He may be +500 in a Month. Its down to a 2 man race and you are way ahead.

[dxp]

Unless you have a ton of money on this why hedge? Miz is clearly winning this barring injury. I'd wait til you can get higher odds on Sanchez. He may be +500 in a Month. Its down to a 2 man race and you are way ahead.

[stevenash]

Cy Young poll: New leader in loaded NL race; AL favorite solidifies standing

[2Sweeet]

LOL you think I give a flying **** what that article says? If Miz stays healthy its his

[2Sweeet]

Boo your ass its not like its a 10/1 shot. Its +340 why Hedge when you are in the lead? Dumb ask anyone who really gambles. I had a +1800 Michigan NCCAB for a ton I didn't hedge until the Final 4. And it cost me. I'm a gambler and I don't believe in helping the book. Its Nashers money so it's up to him. Scared money never wins though. +340 isnt a long shot at all why make the bet if you are Hedging in the lead? Unless he bet 10k on this it makes zero sense.

[2Sweeet]

Nasher if you really are going to Hedge I'll buy the piece you are Hedging with Sanchez and pay you his Odds if he wins. I win you do the same with what I buy with Miz. **** giving the money back to the book.