Fade the #5 seeds
Power conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference championship game are 67-18 SU and 48-35-2 ATS (57.8%)
Qualifying plays: First Round
Michigan, Connecticut, Houston, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Mid-level favorites of -3.5 to -7.5 have struggled, going 49-32 SU but 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016 in the first round.
Qualifying plays: First Round
AGAINST Louisville, St Marys-CA, Texas Tech, UCLA, Kentucky Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites 07-9 SU and 65-51 ATS (56%)
Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites have been successful, going 107-9 SU and 65-51 ATS (56%)
Qualifying plays: First Round
Michigan State, Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Houston, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Florida, Alabama, Connecticut, Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona
• First Four teams not seeded 16th that survived their opening opponent have gone 19-7 Under the total (73.1%) in their last 26 first round games
Qualifying plays: First Round
UNDER Howard-Michigan, Texas-BYU, Lehigh/Prairie View-Florida, SMU/Miami, Ohio-Tennessee
#2 seeds are 16-26-1 ATS (38.1%) since 2005 when favored by 17 points or more.
Conversely, since 2007, #2 seeds when favored by less than 17 points are 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%)
Qualifying plays :
AGAINST Purdue, Houston, Iowa State, Connecticut
The last 31 #3 seeds to play in first round games are 29-2 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%)
Qualifying plays :
Gonzaga, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State
Of the last 33 #8-#9 matchups, 21 have gone Over the total (63.6%).
Qualifying plays :
OVER the total in TCU-Ohio State, Utah State-Villanova, Saint Louis-Georgia, and Iowa-Clemson
In the last four NCAA tournaments, #7 seeds are 12-4 under the total (75%)
Qualifying plays :
UNDER: Santa Clara-Kentucky, Miami-Missouri, St. Mary's CA-Texas A&M, UCLA-UCF
- #5 seeds: just 40.9% ATS over last 16 tournaments
- Favored by 6+: 34.5% ATS
- #12 seeds: 76.5% ATS surge
- Double-digit favorites: 56% ATS
- #1 seeds laying 25+: 59% ATS
- Big Ten vs mid-majors: 85% ATS
- MEAC teams: 25% ATS in this round
Power conference schools that lost SU and ATS in their conference championship game are 67-18 SU and 48-35-2 ATS (57.8%)
Qualifying plays: First Round
Michigan, Connecticut, Houston, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Mid-level favorites of -3.5 to -7.5 have struggled, going 49-32 SU but 35-46 ATS (43.2%) since 2016 in the first round.
Qualifying plays: First Round
AGAINST Louisville, St Marys-CA, Texas Tech, UCLA, Kentucky Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites 07-9 SU and 65-51 ATS (56%)
Since 2016, first-round double-digit favorites have been successful, going 107-9 SU and 65-51 ATS (56%)
Qualifying plays: First Round
Michigan State, Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Houston, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Florida, Alabama, Connecticut, Virginia, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona
• First Four teams not seeded 16th that survived their opening opponent have gone 19-7 Under the total (73.1%) in their last 26 first round games
Qualifying plays: First Round
UNDER Howard-Michigan, Texas-BYU, Lehigh/Prairie View-Florida, SMU/Miami, Ohio-Tennessee
#2 seeds are 16-26-1 ATS (38.1%) since 2005 when favored by 17 points or more.
Conversely, since 2007, #2 seeds when favored by less than 17 points are 22-8-2 ATS (73.3%)
Qualifying plays :
AGAINST Purdue, Houston, Iowa State, Connecticut
The last 31 #3 seeds to play in first round games are 29-2 SU and 20-11 ATS (64.5%)
Qualifying plays :
Gonzaga, Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State
Of the last 33 #8-#9 matchups, 21 have gone Over the total (63.6%).
Qualifying plays :
OVER the total in TCU-Ohio State, Utah State-Villanova, Saint Louis-Georgia, and Iowa-Clemson
In the last four NCAA tournaments, #7 seeds are 12-4 under the total (75%)
Qualifying plays :
UNDER: Santa Clara-Kentucky, Miami-Missouri, St. Mary's CA-Texas A&M, UCLA-UCF