NCAA Trend that has been rock steady

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 67195

    #1
    NCAA Trend that has been rock steady


    I'm positive I'm not the only one to pick up on this.
    I'm aware that several of our basketball savants here either wager on or pay attention to game totals.

    The 2H *over* totals have been covering at an alarming rate for the past few months.
    I don't feel ike cracking open Excel, so I'll fact-check myself on this later, but by 'covering at an alarming rate' I would estimate that at least 60 percent of the 2H totals have gone over the posted number, two-thirds is a bit of a stretch, it wouldn't shock me, however, if it's 62 - 64 percent.

    To my point.
    Of the 14 games so far today, only the SDSU/USU and the Harvard game failed to reach 70 2H points.
    (I don't believe that Harvard has played a game with 70 combined points in any half since your pal Nasher had a full set of hair, when the Triceratops grazed in my daddy's backyard for plants and grass, that game is hardly what you classify as an 'one-off.'

    The 2H totals from the other twelve games were all 70+ combined, most of those being mid to upper 70's.
    Both the Fla and the Howard games saw 84 total 2H points. That Arky game had 110 total 2H points (25 in OT, but still)

    Of the fourteen aforementioned games, throwing out the two lows (SDSU and Harvard) and the two highs (The Arky and Howard games), and using just the ten 'middle' games, that works out to a ten-game average of (rounding up 76 points)
  • S0BRiquet
    SBR Hustler
    • 05-01-24
    • 85

    #2
    This is of interest to me because I make a similar bet every year, or at least I try to but often miss out. Anyway, a good bet to make is on the very first game every year, as far as I know always an #8 vs #9 game.
    Bet the UNDER in 1st Half.
    THis works out well but I do not have any hard data to support. What I will say is that quite often it is a dull game at least in 1st Half. One factor I haven oticed is that neither team gets alot of support from it's fan base so it feels a bit boring once the feeling of Tourney kicking off fades away. It is an early start which does not help players esp if they are coming in from west coast(East Reg seems to be first game majority of times). As a rule the fan bases doesn't seem to show up for this game and instead you have the fans of #1 seed dominating the auditorium which, again, does not work in favor of 8/9 seeds. Maybe it makes sense that fans don't want to drop big bucks for expensive weekend being that if their team wins Round 1 game, the #1 Seed awaits them - - just a guess.

    Last point is that over last few decades, this is also in large part an eye-test sort of deal. The majority of them are not tidy games. A ton of missed shots, to include layups and stupid fouls and missed opportunities in general. As a rule they are not pleasant games t
    watch IMHO. There have been a few that finish nicely and bring some drama but that may work in favor of the bet you are suggesting.
    Comment
    • Optional
      Administrator
      • 06-10-10
      • 63792

      #3
      Originally posted by S0BRiquet
      This is of interest to me because I make a similar bet every year, or at least I try to but often miss out. Anyway, a good bet to make is on the very first game every year, as far as I know always an #8 vs #9 game.
      Bet the UNDER in 1st Half.
      THis works out well but I do not have any hard data to support. What I will say is that quite often it is a dull game at least in 1st Half. One factor I haven oticed is that neither team gets alot of support from it's fan base so it feels a bit boring once the feeling of Tourney kicking off fades away. It is an early start which does not help players esp if they are coming in from west coast(East Reg seems to be first game majority of times). As a rule the fan bases doesn't seem to show up for this game and instead you have the fans of #1 seed dominating the auditorium which, again, does not work in favor of 8/9 seeds. Maybe it makes sense that fans don't want to drop big bucks for expensive weekend being that if their team wins Round 1 game, the #1 Seed awaits them - - just a guess.

      Last point is that over last few decades, this is also in large part an eye-test sort of deal. The majority of them are not tidy games. A ton of missed shots, to include layups and stupid fouls and missed opportunities in general. As a rule they are not pleasant games t
      watch IMHO. There have been a few that finish nicely and bring some drama but that may work in favor of the bet you are suggesting.
      ChatGPT says this (beware of trusting the numbers 100%)



      Give me a list of ncaa march madness first round #8 v #9 games and results over the last 5 years. I would like to also know the first half betting total for each game and if the score was under or over it.

      In the NCAA March Madness men's tournament, #8 vs #9 matchups are historically the most even first-round pairings, with #9 seeds holding a slight 83–77 overall lead since the tournament expanded in 1985.


      The following table provides the games, final results, and first-half (1H) scoring data compared to estimated betting totals from the last five tournaments (2021–2025).

      NCAA First Round #8 vs #9 Matchups (2021–2025)
      2025 (8) UConn vs (9) Oklahoma 67–59 24–27 (51) 68.5 Under
      (8) Louisville vs (9) Creighton 75–89 34–49 (83) 69.5 Over
      (8) Gonzaga vs (9) Georgia 89–68 48–27 (75) 71.5 Over
      (8) Mississippi St vs (9) Baylor 72–75 32–37 (69) 65.5 Over
      2024 (8) Utah State vs (9) TCU 88–72 43–37 (80) 70.5 Over
      (8) Nebraska vs (9) Texas A&M 83–98 44–58 (102) 68.5 Over
      (8) Florida Atlantic vs (9) Northwestern 65–77 (OT) 20–19 (39) 67.5 Under
      (8) Mississippi State vs (9) Michigan State 51–69 24–31 (55) 64.5 Under
      2023 (8) West Virginia vs (9) Maryland 65–67 30–32 (62) 66.5 Under
      (8) Iowa vs (9) Auburn 75–83 26–31 (57) 72.5 Under
      (8) Arkansas vs (9) Illinois 73–63 37–26 (63) 67.5 Under
      (8) Memphis vs (9) Florida Atlantic 65–66 35–31 (66) 71.5 Under
      2022 (8) Boise State vs (9) Memphis 53–64 19–38 (57) 63.5 Under
      (8) North Carolina vs (9) Marquette 95–63 53–25 (78) 66.5 Over
      (8) San Diego State vs (9) Creighton 69–72 (OT) 37–30 (67) 55.5 Over
      (8) Seton Hall vs (9) TCU 42–69 21–30 (51) 62.5 Under
      2021 (8) Loyola Chicago vs (9) Georgia Tech 71–60 30–25 (55) 58.5 Under
      (8) LSU vs (9) St. Bonaventure 76–61 31–22 (53) 67.5 Under
      (8) Oklahoma vs (9) Missouri 72–68 26–30 (56) 65.5 Under
      (8) North Carolina vs (9) Wisconsin 62–85 24–40 (64) 66.5 Under
      Note: Betting totals are estimated based on closing lines from historical databases. 1H scoring results reflect only the first 20 minutes of play.
      Attached Files
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      Comment
      • INVEGA MAN
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-30-08
        • 6796

        #4
        Unders made a killing in these games
        Comment
        • S0BRiquet
          SBR Hustler
          • 05-01-24
          • 85

          #5
          Optional - thx for posting that - I tried Googling old school and far more difficult than one would think, Meanwhile I'm going to pushback on using ChatGPT et al., as I am one of those AI alarmists. Not a fan ultimately = we were doing fine without and now the downside is scary. Yes I'm going big picture versus a sports based thing or any other fact-finding pursuit
          BTW folks - just want to emphasize that I brought this up based on FIRST GAME of Tournament fwiw. There are two 8-9 games that I would not touch for Under - forget who off top of my head - but will bet OhSt/TCU 1st Half UNDER.
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 67195

            #6
            Genrallyspeaking, first-round games tend to go under the posted halftime, second-half, and game totals.
            Naturally, there are exceptions to every rule, but these games tend to be tight; it's usually the second weekend when the pace picks up.

            I'm going to track the early games.
            Two early-game totals (Duke/Sienna and Wisconsin/High points) have dropped by two full points since 9 am.
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