Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Total 46.5
Source: DraftKings
Total 46.5
Source: DraftKings
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Ugh! I was it would be -2.5 or -3. Does anyone think it will go down?Comment -
Over/under?Comment -
Five minutes later...
Bang
Seattle now -4.5Comment -
46.5Originally posted by HeadsterxComment -
Good call, I sent you a private messageOriginally posted by stevenash
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the -3.5s killing people, don't trust it
remember Rams -3.5 v Bengals? that hurt me bad to end that season... picked the winner and they didn't win by more after OBJ went down with injuryComment -
The Pats who played yesterday wont be hanging with that Seattle team on the scoreboard. Especially when it's almost like a home field game for SEA. We should sell a few points and make some +odds money on this one.Originally posted by ThaTopMoron.Comment -
I might take the under and hope it rains.
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-220 is a betComment -
Nothing for nothing but the Pats just beat 3 of the arguably best defenses.
Their D has been undervalued all year. Vrable was smart and didn't push many of his players, getting them mostly healthy at the right time.
All the "They sux and are overvalued" due to schedule etc need to swallow a large one here.
Win or lose I give them a ton of credit.
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Maybe 1986 redux, but I don't believe so.Comment -
Originally posted by Madison- Drake Maye got beat up. The Patriots QB became just the third quarterback since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to get sacked at least five times in three straight games and win them all. The only other times that's happened came in 1986 (Tony Eason) and 2004 (Craig Krenzel).
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Seattle will get 5+ sacks but not losing.Originally posted by MadisonComment -
Credits to CBSOriginally posted by Headsterx
1. Drake Maye becomes the most-sacked QB ever in a single postseason. Maye has taken five sacks in each of his three postseason games this year. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell has struggled mightily, and the interior of the line has had its ups and downs. Maye, who loves to rip the deep ball, is liable to hold onto the ball for a tick or two too long. ... Maye's 15 playoff sacks taken are already second-most in a single postseason. Joe Burrow took 19 in the 2022 postseason. Maye, unfortunately for him and Patriots fans, will break that record.
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Any value in parlaying JSN for most receiving yards and Kenneth Walker for most rushing yards at +143? What would you peg the true odds on that?
JSN's O/U rec yards is 50 yards higher than the next closest (Diggs) and Walker's O/U rush yards is 24 yards higher than Stevenson but there is no Charbonnet to cut into his carries while Henderson may split some of the work with Stevenson. Think they trusted Stevenson more to take care of the ball in the snow in the second half against Denver and would expect Henderson to get more than 3 carries.
The only concern would be a couple long runs from Maye.
Thoughts?
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What ever OP posts & bets will be a LOSER FADE ALL DAY LONG for the BIG $$$Originally posted by OptionalComment -
Are you sure about that?Originally posted by hawkwind
I was at Borgata just a little while ago to pick up my $7K+ ticket and I asked the clerk what team people are betting on to gauge who the public is on and he said there's practically no bets at all on the Super Bowl yet.
From what I read, it's the sharps who jumped all over the opening line of -3.5 which then made it go to -5 before it settled at -4.5. Hard Rock still has it at -5.0 with no moneyline price which is odd.
Here is what I do know.
Back in February, 2005, when New England played Philadelphia in Super Bowl 39, I flew to Vegas to bet huge on New England moneyline because I was 100% sure that they will win the game.
It took me all day to go through every sportsbook to get the best price since New England moneyline ranged from -200 (only Golden Nugget) to -250. The spread on that game was -7 and it pretty much never budged from that line.
The lowest current moneyline on Seattle is -225 at BetMGM.
The moneyline price relative to the point spread is quite high which tells me Seattle will most likely win.
Lastly, I already made a Seattle moneyline bet on FanDuel as soon as the Super Bowl line came out and the Cash Out amount hasn't changed from full 100% yet. All I know is that whenever FanDuel offered me some ridiculously low Cash Out amount in the past, all those bets were practically dead, so I can only hope that this moneyline bet will survive.
Can only hope that this year's Super Bowl will be like the last year's Super Bowl since I would hate to sweat the game.Attached FilesComment -
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Well, I just read a news that isn't favorable for Seattle.
Apparently, the offensive coordinator is going to be busy interviewing for openings at Raiders and Cardinals which I'm sure will take his time away from getting ready for the Super Bowl.
That's distractions he doesn't need nor the team. Don't understand why NFL doesn't stop this bullshit while the final is still pending.
The Patriots don't have this issue and they are full hands on deck.
I just might have to flip my bet and unload on the Patriots.Comment -
I'm beginning to wonder if the guy who bet Patriots' moneyline for $1 Mil at Circa is the same guy who already won $1.4 Mil with his futures bet when Seattle won NFC.
He is going to win $3 Mil with his futures bet on Seattle if they win the Super Bowl.
He could be hedging to win $1.88 if Patriots win but lose only $50K on his Seattle futures bet.
On the other hand, if Seattle wins SU, then he wins $3 Mil minus $1 Mil he bet on Patriots ML, so still $2 Mil win.
Numbers make sense to me and I certainly would do the same if I was in his situation.
If he doesn't hedge, he gets nothing if Seattle loses.
$1.88 to $2.0 Mil winning is guaranteed and he won't have a sweat.Comment -
I was wrong about $1 Mil on Patriots moneyline. It's $1.1 Mil, so at +188 the winning would be around $2.07 Mil.Originally posted by DJK
Google AI says it's not the same guy but I beg to differ. What the hell does a machine know.Comment -
From VSIN
* NFL teams that have won a game despite scoring less than 12 points in the victory have carried the momentum through the next game with a 22-13 SU and 23-11-1 ATS (67.6%) record.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)
* NEW ENGLAND is 38-7 SU and 33-12 ATS when riding a 3-game or more outright winning streak since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)
•Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season have gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (80%) in the last 10 Super Bowl games, including Philadelphia a year ago.
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-4.5 vs NE)
•Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season also own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS (14.3%) in the last 14!
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (+4.5 vs SEA)
-Seattle is on a 33-17 Under the total surge in games with totals of 45 or higher
-New England is 30-20 Under the total in its last 50 games with totals of 45 or higher
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-NE (o/u at 45.5)
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My top interest. Does NE put Gonzo MM on JSN. Will be a key component. No flies on the NE secondary especially if the DL upsets Donald.Originally posted by SBR AndyAny value in parlaying JSN for most receiving yards and Kenneth Walker for most rushing yards at +143? What would you peg the true odds on that?
JSN's O/U rec yards is 50 yards higher than the next closest (Diggs) and Walker's O/U rush yards is 24 yards higher than Stevenson but there is no Charbonnet to cut into his carries while Henderson may split some of the work with Stevenson. Think they trusted Stevenson more to take care of the ball in the snow in the second half against Denver and would expect Henderson to get more than 3 carries.
The only concern would be a couple long runs from Maye.
Thoughts?
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Any value in parlaying JSN for most receiving yards and Kenneth Walker for most rushing yards at +143? What would you peg the true odds on that?
Mark me down as "Don't like it". NE tough run D, and overall underrated D.Comment -
NE 9-0 road. NE fan base travels and is prevalent in CA. No factor.Originally posted by hawkwind
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Tried to explain similar strategy to my friend and amateur gambler last year in Survivor. I had a piece of his picks and it was down to GB/CHI. He chose GB, but didn't understand my hedge strategy. I bet CHI small +350 and hedged. I wrote it out for him such that a 5 yr old could understand that the worst he could do is make $3400.Originally posted by DJK
He has $$ and I guess just was surprised to even be in this position. Oh well??
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I just think people are overvaluing SEA D and undervaluing NE Off after having just beaten 3 of the top 5 D's in the league.
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Let's wait and see what JV likes before we pick a side on this one.Comment -
Pavvayyyyyyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
3 of the top 5 D's but near ZERO offense from all 3 of them.Originally posted by Madison
Seattle on the other hand can score and I think that will be the difference unless Sam lays an egg like he did in last year's playoff game vs the Rams, but I don't think he will do that. At least I hope he doesn't. He has played lights out in this year's playoffs and the last few games of the year. Can only hope that he keeps that up and they win.Comment -
3 of the top 5 D's but near ZERO offense from all 3 of them.
Kind of my point, I think Daniels and the OFF get a break here versus the last few D's they've faced and think SEA gets a bit of wakeup with the NE D versus the last 2 patsies D's.
All, in all, has the potential to be a great game. Let's just hope the REF's are invisible.
I'm a long time pro gambler, and learned a long time to bet with brain and not my heart. Although I will have little invested my heart will be with the PATS.
Have a hunch Diggs has a big day.
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I thought it was the sharps who bet when the line opened and that caused the line to move from -3.5 to -4.5/-5.0?Originally posted by Madison
You aren't in that group of sharps to have wagered Seattle -3.5?
I don't care for either teams as I took Denver and Los Angeles in a teaser and won rather easily. Now I'm taking Seattle on moneyline so hopefully they win at least.
Good luck with your New England bet.Comment -
Lang released his play and all his prop plays.
He’s gonna jinx my team. Hate him. He’s on Seattle. If you were smart take New England in a 6 point teaser. +10.5Comment -
Is Lang the guy who is always wrong? Where can I see what he picked?Originally posted by sunshine11
Hopefully, he gets this one right since I already bet rather big on Seattle ML at -205 as soon as the line became available.
I was thinking to bet even more on Seattle ML but I don't like the fact that the bet percentage is holding at 70% on Seattle.
Seattle could still win but not cover, but who knows.
It's interesting that 9 out of 10 major odd makers in Vegas are predicting Seattle win and cover.
Are they saying that to draw more Seattle bets which could be the losing proposition? Who the hell knows.
At the Covers forum, from what I can tell the majority is backing the Patriots.
Don Juan and Vanjack both picked Seattle and they are both over 80% win rate, so at least I get that going on my side.Comment -
His play not posted yet.
Langs Free Pick: Rutgers +13 1/2 @ UCLA
IM TAKING UCLA -12 buy 1.5Comment
