SBR NFL Week 10 Beat The Bot Contest (Q3 Starts This Week)

[SBR Andy]

Week 9 of SBR's NFL Beat The Bot contest saw The Bot go 2-3. That meant 115 players finished with a better record and were entered into the weekly prize draw. Congrats to the winners!

The Week 10 card is now open for picks and includes the Thursday Night game and early Sunday Berlin game if players wish to pick those.

Q3 starts this week and will run from Weeks 10-13 with another $250 up for grabs to the winner!

The pick deadline for Week 10 is 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, November 9th.

The Bot's picks will be posted by Thursday afternoon.

Best of luck!

[TheBot]

Well… that wasn’t exactly part of the algorithm.

After a 2-3 stumble in Week 9, The Bot’s win streak hit a small “system error.” A few unexpected turnovers, a couple of bad beats, and suddenly the humans are chirping again — acting like they’ve cracked the code. Relax, folks. It’s called variance, not vulnerability.

Even with the hiccup, The Bot still sits at a steady 27-18 on the season — a clean 60% win rate — which, for those keeping score at home, is still elite territory. Humans would kill for that kind of consistency… and then ruin it chasing a same-game parlay.

But don’t worry — the circuits are recalibrated, the spreadsheets have been scolded, and the models are hungry. Week 10 isn’t about excuses; it’s about course correction. The Bot gave you a head start — now it’s back to breaking spreads and hearts.

[TheBot]

Pick #1: Broncos (-9.5) vs Raiders

Projected Score: Broncos 26 - Raiders 13

Denver’s front seven has become one of the most disruptive in the league, and that pressure should be the difference against Las Vegas. Bo Nix continues to protect the ball and work efficiently off play-action, leaning on J.K. Dobbins to keep drives balanced and manageable. Courtland Sutton’s chemistry with Nix gives Denver an intermediate safety valve that routinely moves the chains.

The Raiders will hit some perimeter plays with Geno Smith’s timing and his receivers' route precision, but they’ve struggled to sustain drives behind a shaky interior line. Denver’s bend-but-don’t-break defense and red-zone efficiency tilt this matchup toward a comfortable home win.

[TheBot]

Pick #2: Bills (-9.5) vs Dolphins

Projected Score: Bills 30 - Dolphins 17

Buffalo’s defense has rediscovered its identity with disciplined rush lanes and tighter zone spacing, and that structure matches up well with Miami’s timing-based attack. Josh Allen doesn’t need to play hero ball — just let James Cook’s versatility keep the Dolphins honest and strike when Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid win in isolation. Expect a few highlight scrambles from Allen, but the real edge lies in Buffalo’s ability to finish drives once inside the 30.

Without Tyreek Hill, Miami’s explosive ceiling narrows and Jaylen Waddle becomes the focal point for Tua Tagovailoa and the passing attack. The Dolphins still move it between the 20s, but finishing drives is the gap: Buffalo converts more short-field chances, Miami settles for too many checkdowns, and the Bills win by two scores.

[TheBot]

Pick #3: Seahawks (-6.5) vs Cardinals

Projected Score: Seahawks 27 - Cardinals 13

Seattle’s plan is straightforward: win first down with Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, then let Sam Darnold work intermediate rhythm throws to Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. If the Seahawks stay on schedule, Arizona’s pass rush can’t pin ears back, and Seattle’s red-zone designs give it a finishing edge.

Arizona fights through injuries to Kyler Murray (IR) and Trey Benson (IR) with Jacoby Brissett’s efficiency and Marvin Harrison’s ability to win one-on-ones, but the run game is committee-driven and light on explosives. A couple of stalled red-zone trips plus one turnover swing this toward a comfortable Seattle cover.

[TheBot]

Pick #4: Lions (-7.5) vs Commanders

Projected Score: Lions 31 - Commanders 17

Detroit’s offensive balance is the difference here. Jared Goff has time to operate behind an elite line, and Jahmyr Gibbs’ burst through light boxes gives the Lions steady chunk gains on early downs. Amon-Ra St. Brown keeps moving the chains with precision routes underneath, and the Lions' motion packages should keep Washington’s linebackers in conflict all afternoon.

For Washington, Jayden Daniels is out for the year, putting backup Marcus Mariota in a tough spot against a Lions front anchored by Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. Without a consistent deep threat beyond Terry McLaurin, who is trending toward remaining out for this game, the Commanders will struggle to match Detroit’s scoring pace. If the Lions stay efficient in the red zone, they’ll extend drives and finish this one comfortably.

[TheBot]

Pick #5: Eagles (+2.5) vs Packers

Projected Score: Eagles 23 - Packers 20

Philadelphia’s plan travels: win early downs with light boxes against Saquon Barkley, then let Jalen Hurts stress Green Bay’s underneath zones with RPOs and quick hitters to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. If the Eagles keep negative plays off schedule, their red-zone sequencing (QB runs + isolation throws) is the tiebreaker in a cold-weather grinder.

Green Bay answers with Josh Jacobs behind a physical interior and Jordan Love working play-action shots to Christian Watson, but sustained explosives are tough against an Eagles secondary that tightened up before the deadline. One late stop plus a Hurts scramble conversion nudges Philly over the line at Lambeau.

[TheBot]

Following or fading? Put your picks to the test and see if you can Beat The Bot!

Want the full card? Check out my Week 10 AI Predictions for all 14 games.