NFL Totals thus far.

[stevenash]

Through the first seventeen NFL games (including last night's under 48.5), unders are now 13-4 (77%) vs. the posted total.

77 percent is just not sustainable.

Seventeen games is a small sample size; however, I'm expecting a trend reversal to the over in a couple of weeks, if not next week, the reason being that most teams rarely play their starting skill position players in the exhibition games, and the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses to start the season.

[ddittie]

I feel like the totals are just higher than normal?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Through the first seventeen NFL games (including last night's under 48.5), unders are now 13-4 (77%) vs. the posted total.

77 percent is just not sustainable.

Seventeen games is a small sample size; however, I'm expecting a trend reversal to the over in a couple of weeks, if not next week, the reason being that most teams rarely play their starting skill position players in the exhibition games, and the defenses are usually ahead of the offenses to start the season.

Good info, nash. A few things come to mind:
1) The Kickoff rule is crap. You don't generate the same holes when the blocking is static.
2) The kickers are now amazing. Teams know they USUALLY have three points in the bag. So, why risk an INT?
3) Defensive coordinators have great intel. They watch film and scout out opposing QBs (especially young QBs). They are creating tricks to force QBs into mistakes. There just aren't that many plays to be had.

Just my two cents.

[Madison]

DEF always ahead of Off early. Later in the season (after injuries etc) Off catches up and likely catches up or exceeds.

[T100]

I feel like the totals are just higher than normal?

was posting about this WK 1. books were inflating those lines slightly due to a few reasons... notably the high pre-season scores, public betting early in the season(usually worth a point or 2).
It`s not like we have Elways or Mannings out there.

[stevenash]

was posting about this WK 1. books were inflating those lines slightly due to a few reasons... notably the high pre-season scores, public betting early in the season(usually worth a point or 2).
It`s not like we have Elways or Mannings out there.

To expand on your astute points (did you see what I did there)?

The average, casual football bettor feels much more comfortable betting a total 'over' rather than an under, and the books are fully aware of the public's wagering preferences, so some (not all) of the Indie shops will tweak their lines up a tad.