(Coll FB) Notes - 2025

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hey CHUCK hope all is well,
I had okie state str8 up looks like I donated 0.857u last night. Thought for sure they would get it rolling @being home. Tulsa nothing to write home about=very disappointing

Hi, Very. Things are good (except for the OklaSt ticket).

I had a piece of OklaSt, too. Amazing that they can be that bad. Hope Gundy invested well, b/c he figures to be gone soon.

[veriableodds]

Hey CHUCK hope all is well,
I had okie state str8 up looks like I donated 0.857u last night. Thought for sure they would get it rolling @being home. Tulsa nothing to write home about=very disappointing

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more Dogs. 2* each:
*La-Monroe +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*HAWAII +3.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80

2* OKLA ST -11 1.92: 2 to win 1.84
3rd unit on LA-Monroe +7 1.86: 1 to win .86

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* dogs:
*ARMY +1.5 2.06: 2 to win 2.12
...QB Coleman is not injured, Monken benched him.
...Replacement QB Hellums ran the ball 41x at KanSt. Back to Army football.

*Florida +7.5 1.99: 2 to win 1.98
...Ugly, nobody will like it. I give Fla a good-sized edge on Spec Tms at P/K.
...As long as Lagway doesn't gift-wrap it, points should play. MIA-FL getting overpriced. Should play closer to 3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more Dogs. 2* each:
*La-Monroe +4.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*HAWAII +3.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more ugly Dogs. 2* each:
*Coastal Carol +14.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*WASH ST +20 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Iowa -2 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two plays for Wk03. 2* each:
LIBERTY +10.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
South Carolina +12 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

0* (2nd half) Louisiana +10.5 1.97
...Pribula (MIZZ) is playing out of his mind. Mizz up 28 at half.
...I expect the HC to give Pribula two more series. Then get him out of the game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* UCLA -15 1.96: 2 to win 1.92 (FRI play)
...Basis of this play = true level of New Mexico. Lobos off a season where QB Dampier shone. Dampier departed, as did the HC.
...New this year (2025) = HC Eck (from Idaho). Eck has connections to the western FCS schools.
...This is key in how Eck built the roster. By my count thirty players (including QB Layne) have played in the lower divisions in the past.
...So, is this really a top-flite roster? Number looks cheap.
...UCLA beats UNLV in yardage, deserved better. If UCLA can't beat this opponent by margin, it's a huge problem.

Bad results today. Don't want anyone thinking these are good plays.

I'm not putting in the requisite amount of work. And it's showing in my results.

Have a nice wkend, everyone. GL if you're in action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* UCLA -15 1.96: 2 to win 1.92 (FRI play)
...Basis of this play = true level of New Mexico. Lobos off a season where QB Dampier shone. Dampier departed, as did the HC.
...New this year (2025) = HC Eck (from Idaho). Eck has connections to the western FCS schools.
...This is key in how Eck built the roster. By my count thirty players (including QB Layne) have played in the lower divisions in the past.
...So, is this really a top-flite roster? Number looks cheap.
...UCLA beats UNLV in yardage, deserved better. If UCLA can't beat this opponent by margin, it's a huge problem.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3rd unit on Kan St +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

2* Duke +3 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
2* STANFORD +11 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

3rd unit on STANFORD +14.5 1.90: 1 to win .90

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Plays for Wk 02. 2* each:
*Kan St pk 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*MICH -27.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*OhioU +34 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

1* OHIO ST -31 1.96: 1 to win .96. Pure hedge-back. Got the 3-pt move, will take some EV.

Adding: 2* Clemson -3 1.92: 2 to win 1.84. Too early to swing the line that much. -3 looks cheap.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sandwich game? Good luck on your action, Chuck

I don't question your angle, Jake. I know this looks like a stupid bet. My OKLA support:
1) Mateer looks legit. Much better QB play than what they had last year.
2) Ten starters back on DEF. Think Venables has the scheme just right.
3) Temple off two walkover games. UMass just lost to Bryant.
4) Temple's biggest weapon last year was kicker Trujillo (63-yarder). He's gone.
5) Line move across 24 is pretty key. 24 lands quite often. Feel like line should be 3 pts higher.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

2* Oklahoma -23.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92

Sandwich game? Good luck on your action, Chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* Oklahoma -23.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 155 App St -1 1.90: 2 to win 1.80

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Plays for Wk 02. 2* each:
*Kan St pk 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*MICH -27.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*OhioU +34 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

3rd unit on Kan St +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

2* Duke +3 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
2* STANFORD +11 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Plays for Wk 02. 2* each:
*Kan St pk 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*MICH -27.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
*OhioU +34 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1st Half plays. 1* each:
341 Ole Miss -5.5 1.93: 1 to win .93
355 Bowl Gr +13.5 1.93: 1 to win .93
368 FLORIDA -10 1.82: 1 to win .82
375 North Carol -7 1.88: 1 to win .88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 382 SO ALAB +13 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 341 Ole Miss -9 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two added units:
408 NEW MEX ST +5 1.94: 1 to win .94
...Low-profile game. Number is not necessarily sharp. Very strange to see Tulsa as 5-pt Road Fav.

372 HAWAII -7 1.96: 1 to win .96
...Bows back on the island. They'll be comfortable. Should be a nice bounce back spot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 365 WestVA -3 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* 388 VA TECH -1 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...Take a perspective on how this matchup looked b4 start of 2024. VANDY was as a big HD.
...Commies shocked the Hokies behind Pavia. Fast forward to this season.
...Hokies played South Carolina pretty even (on the stats). Gave up an 80-yard Punt Return TD, which was big.
...Line looks to be too short. Give me the Hokies in a win-and-cover spot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding another unit on:
*MISS ST +7 2.00: 1 to win 1.00
*NEW MEX ST +3.5 2.03: 1 to win 1.03

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Brief writeups on these plays:

*Okla St: Can't get any worse than 2024. Oreg QB Moore may struggle w/ accuracy against real teams.

*Miss St: Shapen comes off injury, should improve the Miss St offense. ArizSt looks to be over-hyped sans Skattebo.

*New Mex St: Just a Home Dog play. Line flipping over 3 looks good. Tulsa's win last wk was versus a re-built roster.

*FlaIntl: I'm showing my disdain for Allar. FlaIntl showed some Rush game last week. Asking Allar to win by > six TDs.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* 234 NORTH CAROL +4 1.94: 1 to win .94
...Just an action play. Responding to massive line-move.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* 317 FlaIntl +42.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* 408 NEW MEX ST +3.5 1.94: 1 to win .94

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two plays:

2* 357 OklaSt +28 1.99: 2 to win 1.98

2* 398 MISS ST +7 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arch Manning: "Time to put away the anointing oils"?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Weber St +27.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...Not really buying this line. James Madison roster has been ravaged over L2 years.
...New QB = Sluka (who played under Chesney at Holy Cross). Debacle at UNLV. Is he really a TOP qb?

1* OREGON ST +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94
...This line has bounced all over the place. Don't really get it.
...Cal had a ton of roster movement. So, I'm taking this price.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A couple added units:
*Port St +43.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
*IOWA ST -14.5 1.87: 1 to win .87

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Three added-board plays for today. Each 1*:
*IOWA ST -15.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Just think the # is too short. South Dakota had an OT poached. He's now starting at Cincinnati.

*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. T

*Portland St +43.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Massive #. Team they lost to (TarletonSt) might be pretty good.
...BYU off a good year. QB situation a mess after Retzlaff dismissal.

*Northern Ariz +30 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Lumberjacks are ranked #19 in FCS. Return their All Conf QB.
...Sun Devils off a Home Run year. They lose RB Skattebo, who is irreplacable IMHO.