(NBA) Playoff bets - 2025 Playoffs

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Props to IND. Lost this one.
*L = -2. ytd: -2.98/45

Win. Gm = +4.55/5
...YTD: +1.57/50

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL to everyone in action. Win or lose, enjoy the game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

Adding: 1* OKC -7.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Total of five units on this game.
...Feel like public-opinion is way too lopsided. Public Dog may get toasted.
...Love the OKC defense. Think they put the kibosh on IND in the deciding game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

*Was driving around. Listened to ten minutes of sports-talk radio.
...I'm convinced OKC is the right side for Gm 7.
...The talking-heads love IND. They're fascinated and love the +8.
...Sports-hacks are usually on the wrong side in this situation.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4* OKC (gm7) -8 1.91: 4 to win 3.64
...Pacers off a great home win. McConnell was incredibly good. Re-peatable?
...Think the perspective is now tilted too much toward IND. -8 = at least two points of line-value IMHO.
...If you go back far enough in the NBA history, Game 7 on home-court mattered. The atmosphere would sometimes suffocate the opponent. Deep in the playoffs, home-chalk normally holds.

Just my opinion. GL to anyone in action.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

Props to IND. Lost this one.
*L = -2. ytd: -2.98/45

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL, Getch. Appreciate the post.

Two things:
1) I know people love playing those parlays. Books know this, too.
2) Does anyone ever contemplate the correlation element to multiple scoring Overs? IE, if Turner is scoring, that means Nesmith can't score that bucket.

[Getch13]

Game 3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND (gm2) UNDER 108.5 pts 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC is a great Def team. They emphasize it.
...Looking for the Pacers to cool off a little. Taking team-total Under.

Was close but it does Win. ytd: -.98/43.

OKC should be back on course. At least I hope so.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

^
Yeah, they struggled to get to 111 on Thursday. I smell regression.

That's what I think, Nashy. OKC put two guys on the All-Defense teams (top 10).

Not many teams play defense like them in 2025. Expecting a strong effort.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, they struggled to get to 111 on Thursday. I smell regression.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* IND (gm2) UNDER 108.5 pts 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC is a great Def team. They emphasize it.
...Looking for the Pacers to cool off a little. Taking team-total Under.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ot sure I like this play

i could see okc in 7

Thx for the note, John. We shall see. IND has momentum for sure.

Like Chris Berman used to say: "THAT'S why they play the games."

[johnnyvegas13]

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

Ot sure I like this play

i could see okc in 7

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

2* (Adjusted Series Line) OKC -1.5 games 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...If I win this, can effectively get back to Break-even.
...Been thinking about ways to bet on OKC. Think this is +EV. My simulation rates this as a 56% type of play.
...OKC has championship defense. IND doesn't.
...Recency-bias tilted to IND. Don't think they beat CLE if CLE is full-strength. Too many CLE injuries.
...IND shot the lights out in Gm1. Effective FG% won't be tilted that way in one more game this series.
...Barring an injury to SGA or Holmgren, still think this series is all-OKC. People still doubt them.
...The Haliburton heroics have been impressive. But that wears out sooner than later.

[johnnyvegas13]

Hi, Johnny. Hope all is well:

1) Been some upsets. So, I don't necessarily agree w/ that.
2) Specifically talking about my picks. Definitely missed a few good picks, just by being lazy.
3) I'm not working as hard this year. And it reflects in my (lack of) pick quality.

Hope the summer is treating you well, Johnny. Wishing you Good Health and Big Bank.

Have a nice summer chuck

see ya in about 3 months …

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Been mostly a lame playoffs

Hi, Johnny. Hope all is well:

1) Been some upsets. So, I don't necessarily agree w/ that.
2) Specifically talking about my picks. Definitely missed a few good picks, just by being lazy.
3) I'm not working as hard this year. And it reflects in my (lack of) pick quality.

Hope the summer is treating you well, Johnny. Wishing you Good Health and Big Bank.

[johnnyvegas13]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

Been mostly a lame playoffs

[actiondan]

budding dynasty, that seems to be the consensus. i think nba has had a new champ for 8 straight seasons
.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

ytd: -1.89/42. Mostly lame picks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Future play: 2* OKC to win the West 1.71: 2 to win 1.42
...I've been chirping about this one. So, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
...Rising star team. So much reluctance b/c they have not done it yet.
...Good team chemistry, ego-less group. I think the resistance out West is < people think.

Winner. OKC goes 12-4 out west. Are they on the verge of becoming a dynasty?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

W - ytd: -.31/37

Pacers come from way back and win it.

0-3. Missed it by THAT much. ytd: -3.31/40

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Minn (gm5) +9.5 1.75: 2 to win 1.50
...I'm buying one full-point. I know this isn't good strategy.
...Just feel like MINN will hang w/ Gobert, Conley et al. Good defensive team, season on the line. They don't lose by DD too often.

One other angle on MINN. They got blown out in the first two road games.
...Easy for people to take confidence in OKC @Home. Will chalk that up as a trend.
...People hate Gobert. That ignores the fact that he's a very good player. Expecting a great effort from MINN here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NBA) 2* Minn (gm5) +9.5 1.75: 2 to win 1.50
...I'm buying one full-point. I know this isn't good strategy.
...Just feel like MINN will hang w/ Gobert, Conley et al. Good defensive team, season on the line. They don't lose by DD too often.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

(NHL) Bonus play = CAROLINA (gm5) 2.08: 1 to win 1.08

[ProSportsEdge]

Any bets I make for Series or Individual games. I'll post here.

Thx to Johnny, Nash and any others for their posts.

Crazy to think he’s gone. That Colts era really was something special. RIP Jim.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

SHAI MVP well deserved award

Yeah, props to SGA! We talked about this in the pre-season. Wish I would have bet him to win MVP, +320 hits.

[challenges999]

SHAI MVP well deserved award

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My plays have been lame. Think I missed out on a few good spots just by being lazy.

2* IND Pacers (gm1) +4.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Knicks off a huge win. They knocked off def-champ Celtics. Now over-hyped.
...Pacers have the mental edge of wearing out the Knicks last year. More of the same here.
...One subtle matchup edge. I still don't think Mitchell Robinson is 100%.
...Knicks need more from Robinson. Knick bench is just not that dynamic.
...I give the bench edge to IND. I will take the points. Expect it to be close, pts can play.

W - ytd: -.31/37

Pacers come from way back and win it.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Quote of the year.
"You don't have to bet every game, betting on the NBA is suicide (and he's right).

-Jayon McIntyre

I mostly agree w/ that. I did have some NBA success last year. Sharp #s, but there are sometimes personnel angles for profit.

[stevenash]

Quote of the year.
"You don't have to bet every game, betting on the NBA is suicide (and he's right).

-Jayon McIntyre

[ChuckyTheGoat]

My plays have been lame. Think I missed out on a few good spots just by being lazy.

2* IND Pacers (gm1) +4.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...Knicks off a huge win. They knocked off def-champ Celtics. Now over-hyped.
...Pacers have the mental edge of wearing out the Knicks last year. More of the same here.
...One subtle matchup edge. I still don't think Mitchell Robinson is 100%.
...Knicks need more from Robinson. Knick bench is just not that dynamic.
...I give the bench edge to IND. I will take the points. Expect it to be close, pts can play.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

i genuinely NYC knicks would have still won even though TAtum never got injured

Maybe so. Doesn't make my pick look any better. My pick got destroyed.

[challenges999]

5* Boston (gm6) +2.5 1.93: 5 to win 4.65
...Injury displacement for Tatum is way too much. I should have been on the Celts last game.
...Consider the players who will be sucking up Tatum's minutes. Going back to last year, Celts had a good bench.
...Compared to other teams, the dropoff from Starter to Bench player isn't nearly as big for Boston.
...I know the season is on the line. That really isn't part of my handicap. I just think the # is absurd.

i genuinely NYC knicks would have still won even though TAtum never got injured

[challenges999]

Jokic has been tremendous this season. He’s clearly the MVP but they’ll give it to SGA. Murray may not be healthy and that will be huge in this series. Kawhi came back and looks healthy. A healthy Kawhi is scary and Harden is playing very well. To see the Nuggets come out as favorites and now their dogs tells me that LAC is the play. BOL bro, it’s going to be a crazy playoffs. Might be the best NBA playoffs ever. A lot of parity in the league.

for me anyone you eliminates the other in this series deserves the MVP cause Shia has also been really good you might argue that jokic is better but still...