(NBA) Playoff bets - 2025 Playoffs

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5* Boston (gm6) +2.5 1.93: 5 to win 4.65
...Injury displacement for Tatum is way too much. I should have been on the Celts last game.
...Consider the players who will be sucking up Tatum's minutes. Going back to last year, Celts had a good bench.
...Compared to other teams, the dropoff from Starter to Bench player isn't nearly as big for Boston.
...I know the season is on the line. That really isn't part of my handicap. I just think the # is absurd.

L - ytd: -2.13/35

[ChuckyTheGoat]

5* Boston (gm6) +2.5 1.93: 5 to win 4.65
...Injury displacement for Tatum is way too much. I should have been on the Celts last game.
...Consider the players who will be sucking up Tatum's minutes. Going back to last year, Celts had a good bench.
...Compared to other teams, the dropoff from Starter to Bench player isn't nearly as big for Boston.
...I know the season is on the line. That really isn't part of my handicap. I just think the # is absurd.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Easy to say now. Maybe the Celtics were the play!

1) I've made this comment about name-players sometimes being overrated. Tatum may apply.
2) Long way to go, but this has to be encouraging for the Kelts. Pressure back on the Knicks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* OKC (gm5) -10 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC hasn't played their best yet. By far.
...Series has been close, 2-2. They're on alert. I expect a sharp performance.
...Feel like Denver's best chance to win another game = Game 6 back @Denver.

L - ytd: +2.87/30

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* OKC (gm5) -10 1.91: 1 to win .91
...OKC hasn't played their best yet. By far.
...Series has been close, 2-2. They're on alert. I expect a sharp performance.
...Feel like Denver's best chance to win another game = Game 6 back @Denver.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* NY KNICKS (gm4) +7 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
...Bought a half-pt. Feel better about the Knicks hanging the +7.
...Home-court should be value in MSG. Especially after such a subpar showing.
...One personnel note: Knicks need Mitchell Robinson to be better to win this series. Not sure that he's 100%.
...Looks like a value Home Dog. Should be a huge Knicks effort. They know this is the pivotal game.

W - ytd: +3.87/29
...Knicks win SU. Big story will be Tatum's health going fwd.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* NY KNICKS (gm4) +7 1.80: 2 to win 1.60
...Bought a half-pt. Feel better about the Knicks hanging the +7.
...Home-court should be value in MSG. Especially after such a subpar showing.
...One personnel note: Knicks need Mitchell Robinson to be better to win this series. Not sure that he's 100%.
...Looks like a value Home Dog. Should be a huge Knicks effort. They know this is the pivotal game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Sometimes but not always chuck

thing is jimmy butler finally showed up in game 3 that is something they need going forward

Will see, John. I was expecting better.

Maybe you can have a word with Kerr. Give him some coaching pointers.

[johnnyvegas13]

The old DUE THEORY?

I can tell you this about the Due Theory. Go back in history and point out the teams in Must-Win situations. A lot of those players can be seen chipping-and-putting seven days later.

Sometimes but not always chuck

thing is jimmy butler finally showed up in game 3 that is something they need going forward

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice win on the dubs chuck

thar is y u take the points

I do think dubs win gm 4 tho

they have to

The old DUE THEORY?

I can tell you this about the Due Theory. Go back in history and point out the teams in Must-Win situations. A lot of those players can be seen chipping-and-putting seven days later.

[johnnyvegas13]

Nice win on the dubs chuck

thar is y u take the points

I do think dubs win gm 4 tho

they have to

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nice chuck I sure hope dubs win tonight

Kuminga very late. We hang the #.

W - ytd: +2.27/27

[johnnyvegas13]

2* GOLD ST +5.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...Curry out again. He's good. But this isn't ideal-age Curry.
...GoldSt was run out last game. Makes them that much harder to back here. Should be good value.

Nice chuck I sure hope dubs win tonight

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* GOLD ST +5.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88
...Curry out again. He's good. But this isn't ideal-age Curry.
...GoldSt was run out last game. Makes them that much harder to back here. Should be good value.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Good win Chuckster…

Thx, pal! W - ytd: +.39/25

[Mac4Lyfe]

1* DEN (gm3) +5.5 1.96: 1 to win .96
...My confidence is luke-warm at best. Just think this is the spot for DEN.

Good win Chuckster…

[Mac4Lyfe]

Nuggets been having slow starts. They need to defend the paint. Not sure I like their zone. BOL Chucky.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* DEN (gm3) +5.5 1.96: 1 to win .96
...My confidence is luke-warm at best. Just think this is the spot for DEN.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Too bad Chuck I really did like the play

I may have even mushed it

No worries, pal. Variance in sports-betting. Par for the course.

[johnnyvegas13]

Too bad Chuck I really did like the play

I may have even mushed it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* GoldSt (gm2) +10.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Curry expected to miss. Think the adjustment is too big.

L. Ytd: -.57/24

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Gl w this tonight

Thx, pal. Like any bet, it's just my best-guess.

[johnnyvegas13]

2* GoldSt (gm2) +10.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Curry expected to miss. Think the adjustment is too big.

Gl w this tonight

[ChuckyTheGoat]

U think ml +410 has any chance here chuck ?

I do, John. I think their rotations will look pretty good. Payton and Looney should log more minutes.

Back when I was betting more, I would play this game as 2* on the spread and maybe 0.5* on the longshot Moneyline.

[johnnyvegas13]

2* GoldSt (gm2) +10.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Curry expected to miss. Think the adjustment is too big.

U think ml +410 has any chance here chuck ?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* GoldSt (gm2) +10.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90
...Curry expected to miss. Think the adjustment is too big.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Pacers ripped their heart out. Game 3 determines the series and I like the Pacers.

Sure did. Props to these players hitting the big shots.

[raiders72001]

Pacers ripped their heart out. Game 3 determines the series and I like the Pacers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* CLE (gm2) -7.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Pacers shot the lights out in Game One. I'm looking for a reversal here. Cavs should be focused.

I can't believe the Pacers won. L - ytd: +1.43/22

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* CLE (gm2) -7.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Pacers shot the lights out in Game One. I'm looking for a reversal here. Cavs should be focused.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*-4/4 on L3 plays. Didn't appreciate the last-second 3 by Clips.
...YTD: -0.22/8, but Nuggets did win Game One.

If you scan up above, 3 ATS plays and 3 series plays: +2.65/13
...YTD: +2.43/21. Back to the green. OKC bet pending (and I like that one).

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*-4/4 on L3 plays. Didn't appreciate the last-second 3 by Clips.
...YTD: -0.22/8, but Nuggets did win Game One.

The ATS plays went cold. But we did get two Series bets home. Will update record after game tonite.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

No real opinion on IND/Cle. From afar, the # looks a little fat. Pacers played well in 2024 playoffs, even w/o Haliburton.

The series vs Boston was deceiving. That could have been 3-1 IND instead of 4-0 BOS.

My primary reluctance on IND is bench-play. Mathurin is back, but I don't like him. Their bench-play looks very mediocre to me, I don't see crushers coming in off the bench.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This does feel like a classic scenario where the refs do everything they can to get this Lakers win at home to extend the series, then the Lakers lose anyway because they're just a worse team. I honestly don't know if the refs can even get them another game, the Wolves simply look way better.

I was not anticipating this before the series btw, I thought Lakers would win. But they've just looked outmatched in a way that refs would have a hard time fixing

Yeah, the Wolves really do have a roster. Not sure why their Reg Sea record wasn't better.

[blankoblanco]

I refuse to bet on Laker filth. But logic dictates that the NBA needs the Lakers to win this one. Lakers 1h is probably a +EV bet, based on ref-bias tonite.

This does feel like a classic scenario where the refs do everything they can to get this Lakers win at home to extend the series, then the Lakers lose anyway because they're just a worse team. I honestly don't know if the refs can even get them another game, the Wolves simply look way better.

I was not anticipating this before the series btw, I thought Lakers would win. But they've just looked outmatched in a way that refs would have a hard time fixing