is this assinine?

Ganchrow · 08-06-07, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by Crayzee

take two of your favorite plays in anny sport (prefer a reguler -55 or even money bet not a high money line bet)

bet #1 if win/tie to the opponent of #2

bet #2 if win/tie to the opponent of # 1

if it splits you win 2 and lose 1

if both win you win 2 and lose 2

if both lose you lose 2 anyway

i've thought about trying this forever but never have

any thoughts other than i'm a retard?

I'm not following your question here.

Could you clarify?

Crayzee · 08-06-07, 11:45 PM

hypothetically your two best bets of the week are

dallas -3 over ny

new england -7 over miami

instead of just making 2 straight bets on both

you make the following 2 if win/tie bets

dallas if> miami

new england if> ny

if both dallas and new england win you basically break even/lose vig

if dallas and new england split

you win both ends of 1 if bet and lose the other bet

if both lose you lose the same as you would have lost any way

i guess i should ask is theer a greater percentage of going 1 and 1 on 2 given bets

or winning both

losing both is a moot point because you would have lost the same amount anyway

Justin7 · 08-07-07, 12:13 AM

Crayzee,

Your logic is hard to follow.

An "If" bet is basically a parlay bet. Unless you have a very strong play, parlays are best to avoid (you pay more juice, and lose money quicker).

If you want to compare it to betting both teams straight up, do a table with your idea and a normal straight bet. It's always good to look for new ideas, but in this case... But in this case, there might be better ways to make more money from good plays (like using reduced juice).

Ganchrow · 08-07-07, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Crayzee

hypothetically your two best bets of the week are

dallas -3 over ny

new england -7 over miami
-snip-

It should be immediately apparent that this is not a good strategy for an advantage better insofar as if the player's two best plays win, he loses money.

But let's add some specific numbers.

Let's say that the player estimates his win probability on his Dallas and New England plays to be 55% (for the sake of we'll leave out pushes) and that he's able to bet either game at -110. This implies an edge of 55% * 100/110 - 45% = 5% on each bet.

Assuming he bets one unit on each game straight up, his expected value will be 2 × 5% = +0.100 units.

<style> .ganch { FONT-SIZE: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: right; } .cganch { FONT-SIZE: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: center; } .lganch { FONT-SIZE: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; text-align: left; } </style> <table> <tbody><tr> <td class="lganch">outcome</td> <td class="cganch">probability</td> <td class="cganch">straight result</td> <td class="cganch">IF result</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="lganch">DAL win, NE win</td> <td class="ganch">30.25%</td> <td class="ganch">+1.818</td> <td class="ganch">-0.182</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="lganch">DAL lose, NE win</td> <td class="ganch">24.75%</td> <td class="ganch">-0.091</td> <td class="ganch">+0.818</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="lganch">DAL win, NE lose</td> <td class="ganch">24.75%</td> <td class="ganch">-0.091</td> <td class="ganch">+0.818</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="lganch">DAL lose, NE lose</td> <td class="ganch">20.25%</td> <td class="ganch">-2.000</td> <td class="ganch">-2.000</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="lganch">Expectation</td> <td class="ganch"> 100% </td> <td class="ganch">+0.100</td> <td class="ganch">-0.055</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="ganch"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
In other words, using the proposed IF-bet structure, the advantage player's expectation would actually turn negative. So for a player who likes money, betting in such a manner would indeed be rather asinine.