About books and exchanges

LT Profits · 08-03-07, 07:38 PM

The only thing stopping me from playing exchanges exclusively is parlays. If they could somehow find a way to take them, I would never need a conventional book again.

ShamsWoof10 · 08-03-07, 08:00 PM

I agree that the exchange format is the way it should/will be but like LT; I like the little extra's the a book offers now... That's not to say that Exchanges in time won't be able to do that as well...

I recently started playing with matchbook... I am still getting use to it but the prices are better...

tacomax · 08-03-07, 09:46 PM

I see the reasoning but it wouldn't work.

Firstly, balancing the action does not always mean that the book will survive. Maybe they do balance the action but can't make profit on the vig since the cost of running the operation outweighs the revenues generated. That is a combination of underfunding (in the case of a new book) and bad management (in the case of an older book).

Also, the point of a business is to maximise your profits based upon your market. If a book has a big majority of players who bet the chalk whatever the weather and aren't concentrating on line shopping then it's always in the books best interest to give worse lines on the favourites than other books would - they know that in the long run that they will be way ahead as opposed to trying to get balanced action. Even if the favourites had a good winning run, the book will be ahead in the long term. However, if they are doing this then they do need to be adequately funded to cushion them from the variance.

And now onto exchanges. Instead of saying that every book should turn into an exchange, let's just say that the top 5 volume books changed to the exchange format. It wouldn't be the case that the five books would keep their share of the business under the exchange format. Exchanges work best the more people play there and add liquidity - what would happen is that people will gradually move towards one exchange and the other 4 would be ghost towns. Some internet business can run with a small number of customers even when there are huge players in the market - think amazon and any other small book e-retailer. Other internet businesses work best the bigger and more customers they have - think ebay and exchanges. There's a reason that there are hundreds of sportsbooks out there but very few exchanges - and even fewer exchanges that offer good value to the player.

jjgold · 08-03-07, 09:50 PM

Most people bet parlays, books would not get the axtion at an exchange, it wont happen ever.

nikosgr · 08-04-07, 12:27 AM

An exchange has juice of 2-5%.A book has juice of 5-12%.
Not all players are sharp.The big majority are squares, placing a bet before the game, so the game becomes more interesting.This kind of bettor will not even bother to calculate coms in an exchange.He will bet with a well known book that will not steal his money, even with 11% juice.

Dark Horse · 08-04-07, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by tacomax

And now onto exchanges. Instead of saying that every book should turn into an exchange, let's just say that the top 5 volume books changed to the exchange format. It wouldn't be the case that the five books would keep their share of the business under the exchange format. Exchanges work best the more people play there and add liquidity - what would happen is that people will gradually move towards one exchange and the other 4 would be ghost towns. Some internet business can run with a small number of customers even when there are huge players in the market - think amazon and any other small book e-retailer. Other internet businesses work best the bigger and more customers they have - think ebay and exchanges. There's a reason that there are hundreds of sportsbooks out there but very few exchanges - and even fewer exchanges that offer good value to the player.

If books can compete, than so can exchanges. By the same reasoning everyone would play at Pinnacle, and nowhere else. As a bettor I welcome all competition between exchanges or books.

The main reason, in my opinion, that there are many books and only a few exchanges is that exchanges are a relative novelty. How many experienced bettors have you not heard wondering about how to use an exchange? Then ask yourself how many people that have discovered Matchbook would go back to playing exclusively at conventional books? That type of one-way traffic is usually a good thermometer for future development.

About parlays. Ganch has pointed out in another thread that exchanges should be able to offer parlays. To me that isn't really necessary, because you can string together your parlay quality bets, and spread them out over as much time as you like. The idea that a parlay needs to be on simultaneous games is completely secondary to the fact that it's a bet on two or more separate games, played at any time. As to parlay payout, no contest. Exchange wins hands down.

Lucas · 08-04-07, 12:57 AM

what about line moves and middling the house?

bookies often, almost at every match, are polish middlers with +110/+110 or so... when the polish middle hits they are losing big money

experte007 · 08-04-07, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

About parlays. Ganch has pointed out in another thread that exchanges should be able to offer parlays. To me that isn't really necessary, because you can string together your parlay quality bets, and spread them out over as much time as you like.

Betfair offers parlays on some events.

remmy358 · 08-04-07, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

Just some thoughts.

If books would always balance the action, they would always be ahead, their own money would never be at risk, and they could always pay promptly. So, if this is true, books that can't pay on time didn't balance the action. That means they're gambling. And if you didn't get paid, chances are they lost your money by betting with it.

Which makes me wonder why more books don't change to the exchange format. Exchanges, such as Matchbook and Tradesports, always pay promptly. Why? Because the action is always and automatically balanced. They couldn't care less who wins or loses. The commissions are flowing in regardlessly. Isn't that the whole idea behind bookmaking, if done correctly? And exchanges reap these benefits without any of the bookie's headaches!

Exchanges are the purest form of bookmaking. Our money is safe, pretty much by definition, plus the juice is lower. What's not to like? Old habits die hard, but I could definitely see the end of the dark ages of bookmaking, as the exchange format becomes the new standard. The only problem for bigger bettors - liquidity - will solve itself as more and more players make the move from book to exchange.

or maybe this is similar to your theory that 9/11 was caused by the US govt...fuxed up.

why can't people realize that no book is going to fail because "the players made them broke". they fail for other reasons, such as poor mgt, owners that gamble themselves personally and blow all company profits, etc.

BOOKS WILL MAKE ENOUGH MONEY OFF OF JUICE & COMPULSIVE GAMBLERS, THEY WILL NEVER TRULY GO OUT OF BUSINESS IF THEY ARE RUN PROPERLY.

ShamsWoof10 · 08-04-07, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by remmy358

or maybe this is similar to your theory that 9/11 was caused by the US govt...fuxed up.

This type of thinking makes a woman's look rational... He thinks it's nuts for the govt. to cause 9-11 BUT AT THE SAME TIME believes someone at a higher level could have planted explosives... With Marvin Bush being the head of the security company of both towers.... let me guess you think Osama put those in too right...? From a cave no less... Talk about duuuhhh... I mean come on how hard can it be to just walk in with a bunch of explosives to the WTC and plant them...?

Originally posted by remmy358

why can't people realize that no book is going to fail because "the players made them broke". they fail for other reasons, such as poor mgt, owners that gamble themselves personally and blow all company profits, etc.

Well... go open a book and we'll get a sh*t load of arb and middle players to play with you and let's see how long you stay around...

Originally posted by remmy358

BOOKS WILL MAKE ENOUGH MONEY OFF OF JUICE & COMPULSIVE GAMBLERS, THEY WILL NEVER TRULY GO OUT OF BUSINESS IF THEY ARE RUN PROPERLY.

Pinny. does not give -104 juice because they make money with juice... THEY ARE USUALLY ON THE RIGHT SIDE.. Ever heard of Pinny leans..? Ever heard of Cris leans..?

remmy358 · 08-04-07, 01:29 PM

you are a known SBR clown and jerk off, and i refuse to comment on anything you say with the exception of this post.

ShamsWoof10 · 08-04-07, 01:34 PM

I wish you would refuse to comment period since your comments make no sense.... As usual criticism is the likely come back... It usually is when someone DOES NOT know what they are talking about...

This is coming from someone who thinks "freedom of speech" means if you don't like it then leave... We've got a few of those around here...

Dark Horse · 08-04-07, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by remmy358

or maybe this is similar to your theory that 9/11 was caused by the US govt...

A bit of a stretch, Remmy, but we're open to all options. Still, if I may be so bold, could I suggest that you open your own thread about the link between exchanges and 9/11? That way, we can stay on topic here.

abacus30 · 08-05-07, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by Dark Horse

A bit of a stretch, Remmy, but we're open to all options. Still, if I may be so bold, could I suggest that you open your own thread about the link between exchanges and 9/11? That way, we can stay on topic here.

remmy358 · 08-05-07, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by abacus30

sorry, i forgot that SBR posts stay 100% on topic and never deviate