ive heard the pinny lines are what the number should be..so for example if pinny has the mets -155 and i find them at -145 at another book, if i bet the better line will i end up being aherad in the end. The question then becomes, at what point is a line considered advantagious enough to bet it, points or money line?
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A scalpable Pinnacle line can be a good way to recognize lines with positive expectation. That would mean you are getting +147 on the comeback at Pinnacle and another book has a slow-moving line. You could bet that blindly and feel good about it. Playing Pinnacle's opinon on the runlines has worked well in the past too.Comment -
Assuming the pinnacle line is the correct market price, is it possible to determine your exact expectation for any given bet at a non-pinnacle site? (perhaps Ganchrow can answer this)Comment -
My suggestion? Run an experiment. Decide in your mind what exact criteria you want to test - then place a couple hundred imaginary bets and see how it works out.
If it's going well, start backing it with real money. If it's going badly, then you have learned something.
I mean, asking the question here isn't going to hurt but if you want an answer you can sink your teeth into, run an experiment.Comment -
< edit for thread pollution >Comment -
For any given bet also covered by Pinnacle, the answer is yes.
(However if Pinnacle is offering an alternative total line on a particular game only as high as up say 195, but your book is offering it up all th way to 200, there's not necessarily going toi be any way to determine an exact valuation by first principles alone.)
Hopefully my introduction to expectations and theoretical hold will provide some explanation.
Please let me know if this helps and if you have further questions.Comment -
Just the leans themselves will lead to a meager existance chasing best value in slow movers. And you will be competing with every other similar minded person. Get some sign up bonuses, and park one screen on Pinny and have those sloth books ready to fire. Some books will invalidate bonuses on steam chasing so that could factor in. Also, variances will fluctuate wildly. You must stay the course and not tilt. If you had Pinny you would be best served scalping. Short answer, yes, but not enough to quit your day job.Comment -
If you can find an Arb out there in Tennis and Pinnacle is the favourite, have a couple of units on the outsider with the other book because more often than not the outsider will win. Trust me with this one, Pinnacle are very well connected when a player is going to throw a game or is injured.Comment -
Yup, better question might be which sport will show the best returns using a Pinny lean. I would put tennis, golf near the top, NFL near the bottom. MLB the most opportunities.Comment
