I have never invested in almost parlays. Are there any reasons to sign with a book that offers almost parlays? Or are they not worth the hassle? Any feedback would be appreciated. Thanks.
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You mean no one does almost parlays? Wow.Comment -
Post the terms offered for the "almost parlay" and we'll see if you can't do better using some linear combination of round robins.
My guess ... and that is only a guess without any knowledge of structure premiums, is that the almost parlays are likely to be very bad deals.
But post the price list and I'll take a look at it.Comment -
Here it is.
Almost Parlays
Ever win three out of four games in your parlay or get five winners and the sixth one doesn’t come in? Welcome to Almost Parlays where you get paid if you hit them all or if you almost hit them all.
Almost Parlays have become one of the most popular betting propositions for Heritage Clients and they just got better. You can now leave as many “open spots” in your Almost Parlay as you wish and close them throughout the week at your convenience.*
Just another way you get more "bang for your buck" at Heritage Sports.
# OF TEAMS RESULTS WE PAY
3 TEAMS All 3 Win 7 to 2
2 Wins & 1 Loss Push
4 TEAMS All 4 Win 5 to 1
3 Wins & 1 Loss 1 to 1
5 TEAMS All 5 Win 12 to 1
4 Wins & 1 Loss 2 to 1
6 TEAMS All 6 Win 25 to 1
5 Wins & 1 Loss 4 to 1
7 TEAMS All 7 Win 40 to 1
6 Wins & 1 Loss 7 to 2
5 Wins & 2 Losses 1 to 1
8 TEAMS All 8 Win 80 to 1
7 Wins & 1 Loss 8 to 1
6 Wins & 2 Losses 2 to 1
9 TEAMS All 9 Win 160 to 1
8 Wins & 1 Loss 20 to 1
7 Wins & 2 Losses 2 to 1
10 TEAMS All 10 Win 250 to 1
9 Wins & 1 Loss 25 to 1
8 Wins & 2 Losses 3 to 1
7 Wins & 3 Losses 1 to 1
*Open spots must be filled within the week.
A tie is graded as a loss for payout purposes. For example, if you have a 10 team "Almost Parlay" with 1 tie and a loss it is graded as 2 losses. It does not go to a 9 team"Almost Parlay" with 1
loss. This example would payout 3 to 1 using the table above as a reference.Comment -
bet straight the 4 games
3-1 big winnerComment -
Here's a comparison of vig on normal parlays at -110, full round-robins at -110, and almost parlays at the odds you quoted.
<style> ganch { font-size: 10px; FONT-FAMILY: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; } </style> <table border=1><tr><td align=center class=ganch>Size </td> <td class=ganch align=center>Almost Parlay </td> <td class=ganch align=center> Parlay </td> <td class=ganch align=center> Round-Robin </td> </tr> <tr><td align=left class=ganch>3 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -6.25% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -13.03% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -9.97%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>4 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -12.50% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -16.98% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -11.15%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>5 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -12.50% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -20.75% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -12.50%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>6 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -12.50% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -24.36% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -13.99%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>7 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -10.55% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -27.79% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -15.49%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>8 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -7.42% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -31.08% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -17.27%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>9 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -10.55% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -34.21% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -18.98%</td></tr><tr><td align=left class=ganch>10 </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -9.08% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -37.20% </td> <td class=ganch align=right> -20.72%</td></tr></table>Comment -
I need more input.Comment -
What input? All the maths is above..Comment -
I'll note that my analysis above ignores the impact of ties, which could in certain cases have a substantial effect.
As a pathologically drastic example take the case of playing three +3 NFL dogs with an almost parlay. This would increase the vig from 6.25% all the way to 25.21%. Even playing just one +3 dog (and two other spreads at non-integer lines) would more than double the vig, increasing it to 12.98%.
So the moral of the story is, if you're going to be playing almost parlays, in general you should try to avoid doing so at non-integer spreads.Comment