MLB Underdog system

Mudcat · 07-22-07, 08:01 AM

#1 sure sounds wrong to me. (I'm assuming that when you say No bets on teams with odds greater than +150 you mean that bets of +160, +170 etc. are out.)

There was a time not long ago where if you just bet blind on EVERY dog over certain odds (as I recall, it was +140 for the National League, +180 for the AL) you would make money.

(The angle was slightly more complicated than that. It was only for games where the odds had stayed the same or improved since the opening line.)

That angle worked for years. It slowly became less effective and I abandoned it a few years back. But it's hard to imagine that things would have swung to a point where NEVER betting a dog over +150 would be the rule.

As for the other two, I don't know. #2 seems like there might be some logic to it (although I expect it would often be in conflict with #1). I'm not sure exactly what criteria you would use to define a "top 25 pitcher" but that could be worked out. To my way of thinking, you'd also have to define if you were betting opening lines or lines that have improved since openers or some other definition.

It might be worth testing for a couple hundred "imaginary" plays and see if the results warrant backing it with real money.

underdog · 07-22-07, 08:23 AM

Mudcat,

#2 would be defined by the ranking as determined by the ERA. favored pitchers within the top 20(within their league) would disqualify that game as a play.

As far as the +150, it would be for those dogs that had not exceeded the line by a few hours before game time with the line travel not leaning in the direction that it would exceed that.

jjgold · 07-22-07, 10:36 AM

There is always trends that works if you keep looking that is why I disregard them, every day you can find winning trends but once you start betting them they go bad.

MrX · 07-22-07, 10:42 AM

Any system that uses ERA as a criterion for pitchers to avoid betting against is HIGHLY suspect right from the start.

ronniejamedio · 07-22-07, 02:32 PM

betting

Hard to say what works this year. for dogs or favs on the road, I usually try to look for the game that the roadteam would win. for example backs in cubs- first day webb pitching would of been the one to take but they lost. cubs looked good yesterday but lost. angels-twins, angels looked real good first two but lost, twins looked good today and are down 3-1 at moment. or cinn-fla, cinn looked real good today with a good pitcher against a bad pitcher and are on the verge of losing. in other words good pitchers on the road against a lesser opponent have been bad picks this year : /

curious · 07-22-07, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by ronniejamedio

Hard to say what works this year. for dogs or favs on the road, I usually try to look for the game that the roadteam would win. for example backs in cubs- first day webb pitching would of been the one to take but they lost. cubs looked good yesterday but lost. angels-twins, angels looked real good first two but lost, twins looked good today and are down 3-1 at moment. or cinn-fla, cinn looked real good today with a good pitcher against a bad pitcher and are on the verge of losing. in other words good pitchers on the road against a lesser opponent have been bad picks this year : /

Got it, I will now start betting all games where a good pitcher on the road is facing lesser opponents.

Just Kidding