i am done with the NFL...anyone with me?

**JoshW** · 12-04-05, 04:45 PM

Am in the same spot.

**Brick Tamland** · 12-04-05, 04:46 PM

You got to play nfl because the public action and small edge given on the dog and the under. you just cant ass-ume there is always a play each kiickoff. I had always made big bucks sellin odds back to my buddies in nfl. The bret farves of the league are fackin us this yr.

**onlooker** · 12-04-05, 04:49 PM

Ive been done with the NFL for a few weeks now. Been strictly on Hoops, Pucks and a college football game here and there for sometime now.

I hope the Bowl games are good to us all.

**LGBoots** · 12-04-05, 04:51 PM

Hell of a comeback from Miami, Grabbing the win with 6 secs left

**Senator7** · 12-04-05, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

This is a strange year in the NFL...an anomaly.....parity does not exist anymore in the league. The days where "any team could beat any team" just don't hold true. The bad teams are really really bad. With the exception of a few nice weekends for me (mainly in the early part of the season) it's been rough sleding and I see no reason why it is going to get better.

You hit the nail on the head with the NFL parity issue. It doesn't exist this season like it has in previous seasons. The linesmakers still haven't learned this yet and I'm hoping that they continue to stay blind to the fact. They're so worried about giving too much value to the underdog that they're actually giving too much value to the favorite.

A lot of dog bettors have survived the NFL season by telling themselves that the dogs are "due". The good teams are really good and the bad teams are really bad. When you open all those games with a 3 point spread (Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Minnesota), you're inviting disaster and a pick the winner scenario. A lot of dog bettors just can't bring themselves to play favorites no matter how obvious the play may appear. That seems to be what's going on this football season.

Don't worry about it, BB. You're still a great capper and I'm sure you'll be back in the swing of things come NFL playoff time and bowl season. In the meantime, I'm sure you'll cash in on the NCAA hoops season.

**Brick Tamland** · 12-04-05, 05:01 PM

I respectfuly disagree. each week is a new week and the ats records mean nothin. bookies have to keep a level head and not get scared right before the dogs eventully come in. its like if you are a 50% handicapper and you go threw a losing streak and cut your unit in half. then... when the losses even out you come out to be a 30% capper. you got to keep on going.

**Senator7** · 12-04-05, 05:08 PM

Originally posted by Brick Tamland

I respectfuly disagree. each week is a new week and the ats records mean nothin. bookies have to keep a level head and not get scared right before the dogs eventully come in. its like if you are a 50% handicapper and you go threw a losing streak and cut your unit in half. then... when the losses even out you come out to be a 30% capper. you got to keep on going.

I'm not talking about ATS records or the previous week. I'm saying that they have to be able to evaluate the talent and potential of the teams better. This is where they're getting beat this season. I'm sorry to say, but Minnesota is a better team than Detroit by way more than 3 points. New Orleans should be a minimum of +4 or +6 for most games, especially when facing one of the league's best defenses.

Instead of opening games at 3, why not 3.5 or 4? You can always adjust the line if need be, but at least you're not playing a game of simply pick the winner since few games end up with a difference of 1 or 2 points.

Its not about picking favorites. Its about picking the right favorites. When you've got a favorite of 3 points and they're clearly the better team, that's a pretty obvious play. That's all I was trying to say.

**bigboydan** · 12-04-05, 05:20 PM

i've been done with the NFL for a while now.

i could start to see signs in week 2. thats this NFL season was not gonna be all that great.

**Betman** · 12-04-05, 05:22 PM

This whole talk about how dogs are about to bark reminds me of the guy sitting at the roulette table who wages half of his bankroll on the red spot because the ball has landed on the black spot four times in a row.

It is as if the guy believes that the ball has a memory or a life of its own and will decide to land on the red spot because it is afraid that it might get sued for discrimination for landing so many times on the black spot

There is no such thing as a team due to cover. Every weekend is a new weekend. What happened last weekend is irrelevant. What will happen now is not.

**goldengoat** · 12-04-05, 06:09 PM

i play the favorites usually so I am doing pretty good

I make my calls before I seriously look at the lines cause I do not want to be influenced by the line before I make a call

it is so easy to collect information these days

I have not been in the game very long but maybe the line makers just know their stuff better with so much info and numbers to crunch and it's available in seconds

**BuddyBear** · 12-04-05, 07:26 PM

Thanks for the kind words Senator...i am hanging in there!

**Razz** · 12-04-05, 07:31 PM

Yep, I'm strictly playing NFL totals from now on. Oh wait, Kansas City plays @ Dallas next week? Never mind.

**moses millsap** · 12-04-05, 07:39 PM

The 3 favorites all cover in the late games (don't know how you'd classify Denver/KC, since it was basically a pickem).

**BuddyBear** · 12-04-05, 07:43 PM

another big day for the favorites 10-3 ATS and 12-1 SU

**moses millsap** · 12-04-05, 07:44 PM

It's really getting hilarious now.

**acw** · 12-04-05, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by Senator7

You hit the nail on the head with the NFL parity issue. It doesn't exist this season like it has in previous seasons. The linesmakers still haven't learned this yet and I'm hoping that they continue to stay blind to the fact. They're so worried about giving too much value to the underdog that they're actually giving too much value to the favorite.

A lot of dog bettors have survived the NFL season by telling themselves that the dogs are "due". The good teams are really good and the bad teams are really bad. When you open all those games with a 3 point spread (Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Minnesota), you're inviting disaster and a pick the winner scenario. A lot of dog bettors just can't bring themselves to play favorites no matter how obvious the play may appear. That seems to be what's going on this football season.

You are 1000% correct!

**pats3peat** · 12-04-05, 09:03 PM

Originally posted by Betman

This whole talk about how dogs are about to bark reminds me of the guy sitting at the roulette table who wages half of his bankroll on the red spot because the ball has landed on the black spot four times in a row.

It is as if the guy believes that the ball has a memory or a life of its own and will decide to land on the red spot because it is afraid that it might get sued for discrimination for landing so many times on the black spot

There is no such thing as a team due to cover. Every weekend is a new weekend. What happened last weekend is irrelevant. What will happen now is not.

people on NFL team's are real and have memories

**Illusion** · 12-04-05, 09:16 PM

I need the Raiders and the under tonight. I took a beating today thanks to Green Bay, so if I lose tonight I'm probably done betting the NFL.

**freebie** · 12-04-05, 09:53 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

Every week I (and a lot of us on here) keep saying this is going to be a dog weekend and the dogs are ready to bark and so on. It's not happening guys. There is no reason to believe it will happen next week or the week after and so on.

This is a strange year in the NFL...an anomaly.....parity does not exist anymore in the league. The days where "any team could beat any team" just don't hold true. The bad teams are really really bad. With the exception of a few nice weekends for me (mainly in the early part of the season) it's been rough sleding and I see no reason why it is going to get better.

Thankfully, NCAAF and NCAAB (where parity still exists) have kept me afloat and helped keep me in the green (barely).

I am going to take the rest of the NFL season off...wait till the playoffs and look at those matchups and see if there is any value in those games.

In the meantime, there are more than enough games in NCAAB to keep me busy.

Best of luck guys.

Buddybear

:0000016:

Why do you guys always have to bet on dogs week in and week out? If favorites looks good, bet on it.

Winning is winning.

**Senator7** · 12-04-05, 10:05 PM

Originally posted by freebie

Why do you guys always have to bet on dogs week in and week out? If favorites looks good, bet on it.

Winning is winning.

Great post. I agree 100%.

**Illusion** · 12-04-05, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by freebie

Why do you guys always have to bet on dogs week in and week out? If favorites looks good, bet on it.

Winning is winning.

I would rather get points than lay them any day of the week.

**bigboydan** · 12-04-05, 10:14 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

another big day for the favorites 10-3 ATS and 12-1 SU

sick isn't it double B.

**freebie** · 12-04-05, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Illusion

I would rather get points than lay them any day of the week.

If I can lay $100 to win $200-400 moneyline that would be great.

If I can't then I'll just win it $100 for $100

As long as my winnings add up at the end of the week. I have a solid income

**mad** · 12-05-05, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by Senator7

Its not about picking favorites. Its about picking the right favorites. When you've got a favorite of 3 points and they're clearly the better team, that's a pretty obvious play. That's all I was trying to say.

Spot on Senator. Point in case, Redskins 3 point favourites against the struggling Rams - no Bulger. Now this week, 3 point favourites against Arizona???????????? Ari-flippin-zona, come on. A field goal in it, don't think so. Taken the skins already tyvm.

**Max Levine** · 12-05-05, 06:58 AM

After losing most, if not all, of my money on sundays following successful college picks, I decided a few weeks ago to play 2-3 NFL games top from now on. Even then, I can't go 2-0.

Yesterday, I got TB but lost Denver and the Under in Miami. If I had been contented with betting CFB all season long, I'd have plenty to bet on pucks.

Max

**Quarm** · 12-05-05, 07:15 AM

i dont understand some of you guys, it never has been that easy in the NFL...why didnt you ride with Indy for example?
Oh i remember...their defense sucks, can they win with offense only? Told you that this is BS some weeks ago...

**raiders72001** · 12-05-05, 07:27 AM

It's been a strange year in the NFL. Books are getting killed and most of the good forum players are right there with them.

**jomar** · 12-05-05, 12:27 PM

I usually bet dogs but have noticed myself betting more favorites this year. yesterday, for example, I had Minny, Jax, TB, Giants and Wash. the only dogs I took were Houston and Buffalo. needless to say, it was a great week.

I agree with some of the earlier posts, if I can get a team that is obviously the better team and have to give 3 or less, I'm hitting it every time. I hate laying more than 3, but some of these are easy at -2 1/2 (Min, Jax this week) playing some of the absolute worst teams in the league.

we'll see what happens this week, I'm not going to bet favorites because they're coming in, each week is its own week.

**pags11** · 12-05-05, 05:26 PM

I stopped betting the NFL 3 years ago...too frustrating...