Are the books getting drilled in baseball this year?

imgv94 · 07-16-07, 02:01 AM

Is that why all the forum cappers seem to be winning?

jjgold · 07-16-07, 05:58 AM

Most books don't take much action on bases, books don't lose

Way too many compulsive gamblers betting the Yankees and books raking it in.

bigboydan · 07-16-07, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Is that why all the forum cappers seem to be winning?

Thats a good question really. I've noticed that some posters that always seem to play "the obvious" (AKA chalk sniffers) having career years in baseball this year.

WileOut · 07-16-07, 12:49 PM

I'd be willing to bet that the rate of favs winning has been close to the same this year as in years past. The reason why I say that is there's not a lot of teams on pace to win 100 games. That means the good teams are having about an average year.

RickySteve · 07-16-07, 02:15 PM

You're seeing a combination of two things mostly. First, a very small sample size. Second, the "sharp" strategy of betting home dogs, once a solid way to play, is overrepresented in today's market.

BigBollocks · 07-16-07, 02:45 PM

BBD I'm not so sure at all that the favorites are doing that well. Many of the teams with superior records at this point have been underdogs the majority of their games as a matter of fact. I used to take a little action and know many books, and from what I understand they're having an excellent year. I'd be curious what led you to say that as the numbers would seem to say otherwise.

The Yankees getting killed units-wise has probably helped greatly also as JJ alluded to...

imgv94 · 07-16-07, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Thats a good question really. I've noticed that some posters that always seem to play "the obvious" (AKA chalk sniffers) having career years in baseball this year.

Yeah just about every phucker on therx is ahead at least 40 units..

bigboydan · 07-16-07, 04:31 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

Yeah just about every phucker on therx is ahead at least 40 units..

I don't doubt that one bit.

wrongturn · 07-17-07, 02:40 PM

If my calculation is correct, for the period of 4/1-7/16 in years 1999-2007, according to the numbers from Covers, this year's favs (excluding toss-up games) did the best. If you bet all the favs, you only lost about 18 units. Clearly if betting with matchbook, it will be some kind of profit I guess. Year 2006's favs also did well (-19 units). The worst are year 2004 (-108 units) and 2000 (-109 units).

For the dogs, the month of June this year was accutally pretty good. So far July was pretty bad though.

ShamsWoof10 · 07-17-07, 03:32 PM

Good posts guys and good points... I agree that when teams like the Yankees and other public favorites lose that helps the books most...

freebie · 07-17-07, 09:05 PM

everyday someone on covers writes up a good bye thread.