I have a figure out a way to hedge my bets to get guranteed 72% of my freeplay amount. Using tomorrow's lines at 5dimes (you can use other sportsbooks' line if you want). You win the challenge if you can make a series of bets that gurantee you payoff of more than 72%. I just took a couple of screen shots of the lines at 5dimes, so i can prove to you tomorrow that i do can get 72% guranteed return, in case you don't believe me. I think this is the best way to spend the free play dollars.
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because the expected return on a 100 dollar free play with no house edge is 50 dollars, so 72% is better than the expected return with no house edge. i think that is pretty damn good.Comment -
Just do 8 3 team parlays all with lines that have zero chance of pushing, i.e. totals of 8.5, 9.5, etc.Comment -
In domes
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This is only true at even odds.
Discounting house edge:- At odds of +257 expected freeplay return is about 72%.
- At odds of +500 expected freeplay return is about 83.3%.
- At odds of +1,500 expected freeplay return is about 94.8%.
As I mentioned in the other thread you started on this topic, you can always receive a risk-free 75% of the notional value of the freeplay by betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 3-team parlay at +600, and a risk-free 76.77% of notional betting equal amounts on every outcome of a 4-team parlay at +1228.3 (true parlay odds).Comment -
theoretically, you're right. if you can find 10 cent lines say -105, -105 for 3 games, then that would be the best way to do it. on 5dimes, i am not sure if can use freeplay for parlays, but i think i can...i have to wait until i bet enough to recieve my next batch of bonus.
i found 3 mlb games with close to even odds at 10 cents lines:
game1: +102, -112
game2: -101, -109
game3: -102, -108
when i do a 3 team parlay with the 3 worst odds (-112, -109, -108), my payoff is x5.99 (bet 1 dollar to win 5.99 dollars)
when i do a 3 team parlay with teh 3 best odds (+102, -101, -102), my payoff is x6.96.
in order to cover all possible outcomes, i need to do 8 different 3 team parlays. so the payoff for the remaining 6 parlays would be between x5.99 and x6.96
if i don't put weights on it, the worst possible outcome would be win 5.99 dollars for every 8 dollars i bet, which is 0.74875, which is pretty close to 75%. now if i adjust the weight a little, my guranteed payoff will be little higher (bet less on x6.96 and more on x5.99 etc), so i think it is possible to get above 75% with guaranteed payoff.
so i think the ideal 3-team parlay method is to find 3 10 cent lines with dead even odds (-105 for all 6 events) and do a 8-3 team parlay.
is that how you would do it ganchrow?Comment -
If you can parlay games at a -105 line set then you can do better than 75% conversion (which assumes 3-team parlays paying off at +600 (a roughly -109.54 line set).
In the example you've given 80.65% of notional can be attained with the following freeplay allocation:(+102, -101, -102) => 11.586%
(+102, -101, -108) => 11.962%
(+102, -109, -102) => 12.091%
(+102, -109, -108) => 12.485%
(-112, -101, -102) => 12.484%
(-112, -101, -108) => 12.894%
(-112, -109, -102) => 13.034%
(-112, -109, -108) => 13.464%
If all games were offered at -105/-105, conversion would be 80.53% (12.5% allocated to each game).Comment -
wow, i was gonna plug it in my excel sheet but since i had to wait about 3-4 more days before i hit the next batch of free play, so i didn't go ahead and calculate it. thanks. you're the math whiz.
sometimes 5dimes has reduced overnight lines for mlb...not sure if i can use that in a parlay...i doubt that i can. the reduced juice lines is only 4 cents!!! i bet i can achieve 90% or higher with that...if parlay with reduced line is allowed.
do you think 80.53% is the best we can do (assuming you can't parlay reduce juice lines)? i think it is pretty damn good.Comment -
yeah, a push is a bitch in parlays...that'll screw up your entire calculation. i think my discovery is not as good as ganchrow's proposed 3-team parlay method. now we can use to on 10 cents lines to get close to 81% of the free play...that is a lot better than my 72%. (i have not tested if 5dimes allow parlay on freeplay)Comment -
Come football season, keep your eyes open for near scalps on bets with the long odds side offered at the freeplay book.
If you could find a +1000/-1100 market, for example, (and if you had the requisite free funds at the -1100 book to complete the hedge), your conversion rate would be 83.33%.Comment
