Which is better?

Dunder · 12-28-09, 10:43 PM

The ML odds are terrific!

Would be interested to see your own EV comparison/calculation.

statnerds · 12-28-09, 11:09 PM

I took Chi +9 pre-game based on Vikes recent road woes and injuries to Henderson and Williams.

obviously both MLs were of the live betting variety. when Bears went up 3-0 and knowing that 61% or so of teams that score first in the NFL win the game, i figured a +290 ML had plenty of value. I figure anything with over a 40% probability at +290 is a solid play (seeing as how just over 26% on +290 would be +EV), and i had it graded at being 50% just to be conservative and not bet too much on it. kept it at 1.5% of BR.

Minny just kept imploding in the 1st H and the Bears lead just kept increasing. when the Minny ML reached +340 i knew it was time to hedge (which i would never rec unless it was a situation exactly like this one). did no calculation on the hedge bet at all, just knew i wouldn't go wrong taking a profit.

much more happy with the +9 on Chi and the +10.5 on Minny giving me a damn near 3 TD middle.

king · 12-28-09, 11:22 PM

Chi +9 is fine.

MrX · 12-28-09, 11:58 PM

I'm in the same kind of ML situation. Man, are we gonna get screwed when this ends in a draw.

TheLock · 12-29-09, 12:01 AM

+290 ftw

hhsilver · 12-29-09, 12:06 AM

you said "when Bears went up 3-0 and knowing that 61% or so of teams that score first in the NFL win the game" .........

But what is the % when it's a 9 pt dog scoring first with a fg?

statnerds · 12-29-09, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by hhsilver

But what is the % when it's a 9 pt dog scoring first with a fg?

don't know and don't care.

funny how slow the market is to react when teams falter. when teams do well and win a couple games, or even a couple blowouts, America loves them. they can't lose. even after those same teams start to show cracks, as Minny did losing as huge favs to the Panthers, bettors still over-value them. missing Henderson is a huge blow and still people aren't talking about it. and when Williams went down, on a defense that is already suspect in my mind, giving 9 pts on the road? as i stated earlier, capped the game with the Bears covering, so a Chi first score felt good.

and when i explained my two-second EV Calculation on it, that knowing NFL teams that score first win 61% of the time or so, and to get a ML at +290 to +EV i would only need a 26% edge and i figured that one at 50%, i saw tons of value in it. got lucky that Bradley is stupid.

here is what is wrong with the Vikings: People know their game-plan. Even with a Bears secondary decimated by injuries, Bradley insisted on trying to go run heavy in the first half. Bears kept loading up for the run and putting Vikes in passing situations. contrast that with the Pats visiting the Vikes a few years back and Belichick completely abandoning the run against the league's most dominating rush defense. Pats ran the ball a total of 8 times in the first 3 quarters, threw all over the Vikes and pounded them 31-7 at Minny on MNF. unless he stops being a stubborn ass, Bradley and the Vikes will go nowhere in the playoffs.

what is the % when a 14 pt fav scores first with a TD (Saints/Bucs)?

Dunder · 12-29-09, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by statnerds

I took Chi +9 pre-game based on Vikes recent road woes and injuries to Henderson and Williams.

obviously both MLs were of the live betting variety. when Bears went up 3-0 and knowing that 61% or so of teams that score first in the NFL win the game, i figured a +290 ML had plenty of value. I figure anything with over a 40% probability at +290 is a solid play (seeing as how just over 26% on +290 would be +EV), and i had it graded at being 50% just to be conservative and not bet too much on it. kept it at 1.5% of BR.

Minny just kept imploding in the 1st H and the Bears lead just kept increasing. when the Minny ML reached +340 i knew it was time to hedge (which i would never rec unless it was a situation exactly like this one). did no calculation on the hedge bet at all, just knew i wouldn't go wrong taking a profit.

much more happy with the +9 on Chi and the +10.5 on Minny giving me a damn near 3 TD middle.

No argument with your rationale for placing the bets. I was referring specifically to the situation at half-time in response to your question i.e Between the multi-point middle and the ML arb, which was the better position?

Statistically it was easily the ML arb (assuming level stakes) even though the potential (and eventual) profit was less.

G's pks · 12-29-09, 11:22 AM

great thread everyone posting their actual picks hours after the game started...my pick posted the day before..(the over)

MrX · 12-29-09, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

great thread everyone posting their actual picks hours after the game started...my pick posted the day before..(the over)

How exactly does one go about posting their live-betting plays before the game starts?

mcbaseball10 · 12-29-09, 01:10 PM

Everybody should pay attention to somebody like statnerd when he posts. He is giving great information for future use. Regardless of if it helps you in the game he is talking about. We can all gain from using stats that we would have otherwise not known. Statnerd, keep up the good work. It is appreciated by us that look at the games without programs and sophisticated data.

TheLock · 12-29-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

great thread everyone posting their actual picks hours after the game started...my pick posted the day before..(the over)

Anytime a tool shows up in a thread where there is intellectual discussion going on about sports betting, posts like this are bound to happen.

Unreal.

statnerds · 12-29-09, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by Dunder

No argument with your rationale for placing the bets. I was referring specifically to the situation at half-time in response to your question i.e Between the multi-point middle and the ML arb, which was the better position?

Statistically it was easily the ML arb (assuming level stakes) even though the potential (and eventual) profit was less.

sorry, read it wrong.

i forgot i asked it as a question. thought it would be neat if folks concentrated on which scenario was better, instead of the tickets were actually for. unfortunately no one answered the question except for your expansion on it D.

i would love to get some other input from other posters as well.

on the surface it appears that the play giving you the chance at winning both is superior to the ML plays that would finish 1-1 at best and 0-0-2 at worst.

i am far from a teacher at this point, merely a fellow student of learning ins and outs of +EV bets, weighing proper odds or even figuring which positions would be best.

you already gave the answer that the ML Arb was the better position. hopefully we can some other angles or insights into the question.

mcbaseball10-
i am fully of possibly useless info that i attempt to draw on when i need it. happen to work out last night in my favor. i love knowing the stats and math behind the plays Books offer us. if we go in blind or just cause we think the odds are good, we might get in trouble. much like blind betting of teasers as compared to Wong.

i learned long ago that some people come to forums just for action and winners and others come to learn and improve their chances of wining.

G's pks · 12-29-09, 05:39 PM

blah blah blah...post before game stats nerd...

G's pks · 12-29-09, 05:40 PM

let me try... ok bears win in OT... wow...am I cool!

statnerds · 12-29-09, 08:39 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

let me try... ok bears win in OT... wow...am I cool!

G -

3 of the 4 wagers we are discussing here were live-betting options. only one was made pre-game, and at about 8:20 p.m. sorry our dialogue annoyed you so greatly.

you want before game?

yesterday i put 2% of my BR on Falcons -1 at TB....

enjoy

sharpcat · 12-29-09, 09:02 PM

middle worked out great

probably would have passed on hedging with the scalp but sometimes its wise to just take the money

good job regardless!!!!!