Help on Kelly Calculator- I am getting 0 as my profit & expected growth(pic inside)

[MichaelC]

SBR Points reward to whomever can help get this figured put for me.

[IMG][/IMG]

[MonkeyF0cker]

Would be nice if you could actually see anything in the image. If you're getting zero, it's probably because you've entered something with negative expectancy.

[20Four7]

If you click on the image you'll see a bigger version.

1st why have you entered a kelly multiplier of 9?

Your first bet has a win probability of 68 % that corresponds to approximately -210 the odds you are getting is -250 = -EV. Your second bet has a 48% probability at odds of +100 again = -EV. Your 3rd bet has a win probability of 60% which represents approximately -150 and your getting -190....... you get the picture.

I stopped there because it's obvious if you have quantified your edge you got no clue what that represents on the ML. If you don't understand where the probability and ML's lie I doubt if you have your edge set correctly either.

[MichaelC]

If you click on the image you'll see a bigger version.

1st why have you entered a kelly multiplier of 9?

Your first bet has a win probability of 68 % that corresponds to approximately -210 the odds you are getting is -250 = -EV. Your second bet has a 48% probability at odds of +100 again = -EV. Your 3rd bet has a win probability of 60% which represents approximately -150 and your getting -190....... you get the picture.

I stopped there because it's obvious if you have quantified your edge you got no clue what that represents on the ML. If you don't understand where the probability and ML's lie I doubt if you have your edge set correctly either.

I took the Money Lines from 5dimes..and compared them to expected computer win odds from sportspunter.com

This is how I came up with my inputted stats. Everything matched up between the two sites...

[20Four7]

Your not understanding me. If that's the expected win percentage and the odds out there that's fine. Nothing wrong with that input. But it means you have all -EV bets. I only went through the first 3 because they all had negative expectations.

Take your first bet, you said it had a 68% chance of winning. That means your break even point is approximately -210. If you are giving -250 if you win 68% of the time and lose 32% of the time you lose money. Punch in -190 on that line and see what happens. Whooooo you will have a positive expectation and you'll be given a bet size.

There is nothing wrong with the calculator YOU NEED to understand the correlation between probably and the moneylines. If you think that betting something at -250 with a 68% chance of winning is a good bet, you sir are a bookies wet dream.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hmm. The mobile version won't allow the higher resolution image to be displayed on my iPhone. That's fairly annoying.

[smitch124]

There are several bets that are -EV and with the Kelly multiplier of 9 you end up very broke not just broke...

[MichaelC]

Here is why I ran it....I had never played with a Kelly Calc. before this simulation and read that ACB teams were 61% to win at home. I wanted to try and see the outcome if someone was to bet every home team this weekend, since they ALL ended as favorites, even the one as the small dog in my simulation.

[20Four7]

If you bet them all at the odds you list in the long run if the numbers are correct you will lose money. That doesn't mean you won't make money this weekend, but if you bet this week over and over and if the probabilities are close then it's not a good proposition.

[1st and Ten]

Would be nice if you could actually see anything in the image. If you're getting zero, it's probably because you've entered something with negative expectancy.

A degree of civility today Focker