Pretty small slate of games....a few championship games (uncompetitive at best) and a few rivalry games but that's it for next week in NCAAF.
I'll start with WVU/SFU
Had S.Florida won I would have hammered W.Virginia but this is a game that I won't touch. WVU is clearly the better team but with their BCS bowl bid locked and S.Florida choking at Connecticut...really not much here other than SFU playing for a bowl bid. Most SFU players thought this game would be for a BCS invite...instead now SFU is playing for a bowl bid hoping to land in something like that Bed Bath and Beyond bowl or some junk like that. My recommendation here is to lay off but line should move in WVU favor.
LSU/Georgia....both teams struggled this weekend but came out with SU victories. Very tight matchup here as refelcted in the line. Game is neutal but being played in Georgia but crowd should be split 50/50 or slight edge with Georgia fans. LSU's defense is legit and so is Georgia's but edge goes to LSU. Both QBs relatively solid...very close game here I see. But one thing that sticks out is the way in which Auburn really handled Georgia down in Athens is still very salient to me. To me LSU's defense is the key and they are better than Georgia's. I already locked in LSU.
Play: LSU -2 (-109) @Pinnacle
Colorado/Texas....Big 12 championship games in the past have had a ton of upsets. COL was here last year and got throttled and I'd like to think they remember that. They have a capable offense and I figure 2-3 TDs by CU should cover this spread and if they can hold UT to a few fgs instead of TDs they should come though...but UT has been an ATS covering machine this year and it seems like bookmakers can't make the spreads high enough for them. Spread seems really high though considering it was 28 for TXAM and COL hammered them and now it's 28 against TEX on a neutral site. May take a shot with CU but no way I would lay -28 in a championship game.
Lean: CU +28 but will wait for the closing number
That's it for now...any thoughts observations???
I'll start with WVU/SFU
Had S.Florida won I would have hammered W.Virginia but this is a game that I won't touch. WVU is clearly the better team but with their BCS bowl bid locked and S.Florida choking at Connecticut...really not much here other than SFU playing for a bowl bid. Most SFU players thought this game would be for a BCS invite...instead now SFU is playing for a bowl bid hoping to land in something like that Bed Bath and Beyond bowl or some junk like that. My recommendation here is to lay off but line should move in WVU favor.
LSU/Georgia....both teams struggled this weekend but came out with SU victories. Very tight matchup here as refelcted in the line. Game is neutal but being played in Georgia but crowd should be split 50/50 or slight edge with Georgia fans. LSU's defense is legit and so is Georgia's but edge goes to LSU. Both QBs relatively solid...very close game here I see. But one thing that sticks out is the way in which Auburn really handled Georgia down in Athens is still very salient to me. To me LSU's defense is the key and they are better than Georgia's. I already locked in LSU.
Play: LSU -2 (-109) @Pinnacle
Colorado/Texas....Big 12 championship games in the past have had a ton of upsets. COL was here last year and got throttled and I'd like to think they remember that. They have a capable offense and I figure 2-3 TDs by CU should cover this spread and if they can hold UT to a few fgs instead of TDs they should come though...but UT has been an ATS covering machine this year and it seems like bookmakers can't make the spreads high enough for them. Spread seems really high though considering it was 28 for TXAM and COL hammered them and now it's 28 against TEX on a neutral site. May take a shot with CU but no way I would lay -28 in a championship game.
Lean: CU +28 but will wait for the closing number
That's it for now...any thoughts observations???
