Another strong NFL weekend for the public...will it ever end???

**bigboydan** · 11-28-05, 12:14 AM

double B, i just made a post on this subject in another thread. like i was saying in that thread.this football season has seemed to be very square friendly. it seems like every 5 years or so. these types of results happen.

**Dead Money** · 11-28-05, 12:23 AM

I wonder if the lines for next weeks games will reflect that vegas is gettin there ass handed to them.

Could be some larger spreads??
We'll see.

**BuddyBear** · 11-28-05, 12:30 AM

Sorry bbd....just got back from out of town...haven't looked many threads over yet.

My guess...a few linesmakers will be getting fired shortly. I mean why make Carolina a -3.5 favorite when you could have opened them up at -6 or -6.5 and the public sitll would have pounded them and even opening Tenn up as DD favorites against a sorry team like the Niners wouldn't have made much difference to the public...only till the end of the week did they move them up to DD. I mean open them up at -10 not -7.

As one linesmakers said recently: "we're pretty much going to need SF to cover every weekend from here on out"

**Senator7** · 11-28-05, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by Dead Money

Could be some larger spreads?

Nope. Most of next week's spreads are a field goal or less. Its going to be pick the winner in the NFL this week.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 02:55 AM

"If luck weren't involved I'd win every one of these."

Momentarily entering Phil Hellmuth mode.

This week was so sick for me. I mean, if Pittsburgh covers tomorrow, I'll still win for the week, but the only three sides I won in the NFL (2-0 on totals) were the Falcons on Thursday, the Jaguars today, and the Dolphins today. I knew the first two were the square side when I bet them (I almost never knowingly bet the square side of games), but still liked them.

On to the sickness:
Thursday
Dallas ML +125 - Absolutely unbelievable that they lost this game. Everyone is focusing on the chipshot field goal they missed late that would have won it, but they should have been winning by double digits already.

Friday
Hawaii +7 - Every call went against them, which is unheard of out there. Most memorable was an absolutely horseshit offensive pass interference call when the Rainbows were about to score. Hawaii simply couldn't find the end zone, even though they moved the ball with ease the whole game.

Saturday
Maryland +3 - Outgained NC St. 277-178, but lost because of turnovers, muffed punts and all kinds of garbage. All of NC St.'s points were off turnovers.

Sunday
Redskins +3.5 -

Bills +4 (push) - no real complaint here, but a push was the worst possible outcome.
Ravens +9.5 -105 - Again, no real complaint, but if you told me the Ravens score 29 points, I'd have been surprised to know they lost the game, let alone the cover.
Jets +1.5 - I'm just trying to figure out why the Saints didn't go for 2 up 20-19, which would have given me a chance. Also, missed FG at the end after a penalty.

**Senator7** · 11-28-05, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by Razz

I knew the first two were the square side when I bet them (I almost never knowingly bet the square side of games), but still liked them.

I don't understand why its square to bet a favorite. I can understand the guys that are laying the chalk with Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Indianapolis every week, but I don't see a square side and a sharp side to a play. I see a right side and a wrong side and I pick the side that I think gives me the best chance to win that particular game. If its the underdog, great. If its the favorite, fine. When Wisconsin came out as a 7 point favorite, I saw that as a gift as I expected the line to be at least 10, probably 13 or 14. I was expecting Jacksonville to be at least a 6 or 7 point favorite against Arizona and I thought I had an early Christmas present at -3. Does this make me square? I had a couple winning underdogs this week too like Mississippi St., Stanford, Texas A&M, and the Dolphins. I didn't bet those games because it was the sharp side of the play. I thought that given the line, taking the points was the correct play and I happened to be right. All this talk about the public blah, blah, blah and squares blah, blah, blah makes me sick. Over the long haul, dogs are going to cover as often as favorites do. Why is betting a favorite a square play and taking the points a sharp play? I'll never understand that. Please don't think I'm picking on you, Razz, but lately there's a lot of people on here that are complaining because favorites are cashing this season and its like its against their religion to bet a favorite because its a square play and its not hip. Its like they'd rather lose the bet by taking the underdog, but take consolation in the fact that they're a superior sportsbettor because they didn't make the square play even though the square play won. One thing I've learned in my sportsbetting career is that moral victories don't put money in my sportsbook account.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 03:59 AM

It's not square to bet a favorite in general. A square bet is someone who the general public is going to think should be favored by much more, or an underdog that they think should be favored (uncommon, which is why most people believe, as you mentioned, that betting a favorite is a square play). Meanwhile, the so-called sharps understand the line, and perceive value going against the public. I don't feel there is a square side to every game. These were what I considered to be the square sides this week:

Falcons
Broncos -
Panthers -
Chargers -
Rams -
Jaguars
Raiders
and, as every week, the Colts

So far, these games are 5-1-1 or 6-1 ATS this week. But, the four with a dash next to them legitimately could have, and except for the Panthers, undeniably should have lost. That's the complaint about this year, and more particularly this week, from me.

**Senator7** · 11-28-05, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Falcons
Broncos
Panthers
Chargers
Rams
Jaguars

Of the games you mentioned, I was on the games listed above. When the lines came out last Sunday night, I did think that most of these teams should have been favored by much more than what they were and that's why I played them. I got Denver at +2 because I thought they should have been favored. They never trailed in the game @ Dallas. I got Atlanta @ -2.5 because I thought they should have been at least a TD favorite. I took the Panthers @ -3.5, but I wouldn't have taken them at -4. I took the Chargers, Rams, and Jags at -3 and saw all of them as gifts. I played these favorites because I thought the line was off and that they should have been favored by more points. They were obvious plays to me. In my opinion, this is line value. Does that make me a square?

On the other hand, I didn't think Notre Dame should have been favored by 17.5 points @ Stanford. I didn't think that Mississippi should have been favored by 3 points @ Miss. St. I knew the Dolphins had a chance to win that game and thought the 7 points against Oakland was a gift.

If a favorite is giving up less points than they should be, there's value in that play. If an underdog is getting more points than they should be, there's value there too. I don't see square and sharp plays. This season, if you're making the sharp play and betting dogs, you're not doing so hot. If you're making the square play and playing favorites, you're sitting pretty well. I'd rather have a nice bankroll at the end of the season making "square plays" than be down money making "sharp plays." People here are complaining about favorites cashing and square plays winning, but the next week they're playing their underdogs and losing again. To me, a square play is not taking favorites when they're playing inferior opponents and not giving up as many points as they should be. A play that wins and makes money is not a square play. Its a pretty sharp play to me because it was the right one.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 04:51 AM

I mean, I know you wouldn't say that after watching the games that the Broncos, Chargers, and Rams were the right sides, and wouldn't bet them again if somehow the week started over. I wouldn't bet on the Ravens again, but the whole point of my post was that I continue to have the right side of so many games, and so many continue to lose. If the Steelers somehow don't cover tomorrow, that would be four consecutive losing weeks in the NFL for me, on the heels of six consecutive winning weeks.
I understand your point about games winning, and a right side and a wrong side. I take plenty of favorites (30-40%), and my biggest play today was a favorite. I would never call you a square (if you remember, I defended you from being exactly that to either raiders or jj a while back - the whole 57% thing). The point is that so many "square" sides continue covering, many in miraculous fashion.

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by Razz

but the whole point of my post was that I continue to have the right side of so many games, and so many continue to lose. If the Steelers somehow don't cover tomorrow, that would be four consecutive losing weeks in the NFL for me, on the heels of six consecutive winning weeks.
I understand your point about games winning, and a right side and a wrong side. I take plenty of favorites (30-40%), and my biggest play today was a favorite. I would never call you a square (if you remember, I defended you from being exactly that to either raiders or jj a while back - the whole 57% thing). The point is that so many "square" sides continue covering, many in miraculous fashion.

I understand your points, even though i have had
the best season i've ever had! Your right about alot
of games that you should of won. I had bets on
San Diego and the Rams,those games i will admit
there was luck invovled especially in the rams game.
San Diego was lucky but i think they deserved to win
that game they were clearly the better team to me. One
thing i think alot of people like you do not understand
is the difference between this season and others are
there is less parody. The good teams are distancing
themselves from the rest of the league and i think
books and alot people that have been losing this
season have been slower to realize this and have paid
the cost.But you have had some very tough beats which i completely understand your frustration i'm sure we all have.But betting teams like the ravens and
the texans there should be some expectation of
the possibilty of blowing a big lead or just playing
awful!!

**raiders72001** · 11-28-05, 08:33 AM

I got buried Sunday.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 08:55 AM

For what it's worth, I didn't have the Texans, I just feel sick for anyone who did.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

One thing i think alot of people like you do not understand is the difference between this season and others are there is less parody.

You're probably right. Saturday Night Live hasn't been the same since Will Ferrell left.

**raiders72001** · 11-28-05, 09:13 AM

Here's how my day went

I had Hou- gives up a 21 pt lead.

Wash- Up by 10. then goes into OT. FG by either team and I win. Of course SD scores a TD in OT.

SF- Up 14-9 and end up losing by 11.

Hou- Up by 21 and loses and loses in OT but again the only thing that can beat me is a STL TD. You know what happened.

GB- Fumbles at the end of the game setting up a Phil FG and I miss covering by 1/2 point.

Early I though I was going to have a great day and it just fell apart.

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by Razz

You're probably right. Saturday Night Live hasn't been the same since Will Ferrell left.

Was parody the wrong word to use? Looking at Next week
Alot of Underdogs look good to me so far especially
SF! raiders and packers look good too!

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 09:30 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Here's how my day went

I had Hou- gives up a 21 pt lead.

Wash- Up by 10. then goes into OT. FG by either team and I win. Of course SD scores a TD in OT.

SF- Up 14-9 and end up losing by 11.

Hou- Up by 21 and loses and loses in OT but again the only thing that can beat me is a STL TD. You know what happened.

GB- Fumbles at the end of the game setting up a Phil FG and I miss covering by 1/2 point.

Early I though I was going to have a great day and it just fell apart.

Who do you like in tonights game? and hey i love the
chargers but 10.5 pts is too much next week! raiders
look live right?

**raiders72001** · 11-28-05, 09:36 AM

I'm cold so beware but I like Pitt tonight. I'm going to wait as long as possible as this line's going up...............Small play for me on Raiders next week. You are right, that's a lot of points.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 09:37 AM

You were thinking of parity. I was just kidding obviously. I understand what you mean about their being less parity, in that there are some really bad teams. But the midlevel teams, such as the Redskins, are still valuable commodities in situations such as yesterday.

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by raiders72001

Small play for me on Raiders next week. You are right, that's a lot of points.

I'm not getting in the way of the Chargers buzzsaw anymore (At least my two SB futures - Carolina and San Diego - look better after yesterday). The dog does seem to be the way to go in Raider games though.

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Razz

You were thinking of parity. I was just kidding obviously. I understand what you mean about their being less parity, in that there are some really bad teams. But the midlevel teams, such as the Redskins, are still valuable commodities in situations such as yesterday.

Your right parity. Thats how you spell it. Hey I want
to thank you for your pick on East Carolina! I was going
thru the forum early that morning and bet a parlay with
your east carolina to miss st and san jose st..

**Razz** · 11-28-05, 09:47 AM

Please start betting all my picks (Steelers). You have been hotter than hell since you started posting here, and according to you (no reason not to believe you) it's been that way all season.

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by Razz

I'm not getting in the way of the Chargers buzzsaw anymore (At least my two SB futures - Carolina and San Diego - look better after yesterday). The dog does seem to be the way to go in Raider games though.

Razz, If i tell you the two teams i bet on for SB futures
you and everyone on this site will lose all respect for me.

**imgv94** · 11-28-05, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by Razz

Please start betting all my picks (Steelers). You have been hotter than hell since you started posting here, and according to you (no reason not to believe you) it's been that way all season.

Well i dont know id you saw one of my posts
but i have a sweetheart teaser ending with
steelers +22. my sweetheart teaser had
Jags,Seahawks,Chargers,and Steelers all
top 10 teams and getting at least 9pts in every
game. I'll root for you Razz!! You Made me
some money with E.Carolina thanks again man!