when i'm looking for value in a game. i look at stats and trends mainly. but, i will as i look into a game i'm capping very closely. i will look at scheduals, injurys, flight times, hot and cold players and, line movement. i'm kind of curious what some of you other posters look for when your capping a game.
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how do you find out flight times of teams? haha that is deep but a good analysis
to look for value.. id see the injuries of course and how the stars been doing lately.. and Experts opinions/other peoples picksComment -
I don't pay much attention to trends. I'm very big on power ratings and I have my own that are a composite of other ratings that I respect. I also look at injuries and line movements. I also look at situations and circumstances as well. For example, after Nebraska beat Colorado yesterday, I really thought Iowa St. would come out and beat Kansas by at least a touchdown. Unfortunately, that didn't happen. Another situation that I really like is home underdogs in rivalry games. I don't pay much attention to schedules and I don't believe in the bounce theory or that teams are looking ahead.Comment -
Matchups are the key and understanding the dynamics of each particular team are most important, IMHO. I'm not much of a trends guy either, it is a huge advantage to be able to watch the games as it adds a greater depth to the natural side of capping, instead of relying solely on technical analysis, where the stats are often misleading.Comment -
great thread dan...in football, I look at weather (especially in games in Nov.), whether or not is a home or away game, the surface (grass or turf), stadium (most are outdoors, but some are indoors), injuries (this is huge, ND tonight...Stovall injured, Fitzpatrick injured--and I still bet them, why I ask?...lol), coaching (this is huge in both college football and college basketball)...who a team played last, who and where they play next (in football, I'm a believer a team can't get upf for a game 3 weeks in a row...meaning, they may take a week off against an inferior opponent and not cover-see Fresno tonight vs. Nevada), in hoops I look at: are they coming off of a long road trip, or did they just get back from Maui or Alaska and now they've got to play a team with fresh legs)...QB is huge in football, as is having a good kicker and a good defense...trends definitely play a roll as well...some rivalry games are always close, some teams play well at home and stink on the road, and some teams just have other teams numbers...it's all of this info. that I combine with "feel" when picking a game...Comment -
I'm with Owned. I feel good about a wager when I saw those teams play each other. Some teams or players perform differently against certain teams or on certain fields.
But I end up capping an awful lot based on stats and trends anyway.
MaxComment
