hedging baseball totals

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  • rob
    SBR MVP
    • 08-23-06
    • 3007

    #1
    hedging baseball totals
    I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
    Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
    I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
    Does anyone have any data on this?
  • AC1318
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-09-06
    • 6712

    #2
    Originally posted by rob
    I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
    Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
    I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
    Does anyone have any data on this?
    I doubt you will find 2 point gaps on totals

    also some totals at times are -130 which would begin to add up if this side loses
    Comment
    • Arilou
      SBR Sharp
      • 07-16-06
      • 475

      #3
      You can look at Pinnacle's buy/sell options to get a rough idea of what numbers are worth.
      Comment
      • pico
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 04-05-07
        • 27321

        #4
        playing the middle is an art...i have no clue how to do it, and i bet if you want to try, it'll take you a while before you figure out a good system.
        Comment
        • spliff
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-16-06
          • 547

          #5
          Originally posted by rob
          I've wondered about this for some time as the situation seems to come up fairly frequently.
          Today, on the Tor/SF game, I have one book that has the total at 8 -110 and another that has it at 7.5 -110. Is this worth playing opposite sides at each book? What is the probability of the total of this game being 8?
          I'm guessing that it may not be a long term profitable play, but I would think that a similar circumstance with odd numbers - particularly 7 or 9 - may be profitable.
          Does anyone have any data on this?
          I would bet everything I own that this will never be profitable over the course of 3 days, much less long term.
          Comment
          • 20Four7
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-08-07
            • 6703

            #6
            While I don't have data on this I think it wouldn't be profitable as the others have said. One hit on 8 (or whatever the number is) will take a toll on all the small winnings.

            Now betting on an over 7.5 early (if you believe it's too low) and trying to cover later with an under 8.5 or 9 if you think it will get there is a different story. Trading lines like that can be profitable or can get you burnt real quick.
            Comment
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