Pavy's Handicapping Theory

[pavyracer]

Before you hammer this post this is just a handicapping theory as suggested by the purpose of this forum. If you don't agree with the theory prove it is not valid with concrete arguments.

Always tease the home team in NFL when the spread is +9 or better on days where the game time temperature is below 40 degrees F.

[Fishhead]

Your saying HOME TEAMS that are getting +9 or more?

[Flying Dutchman]

...Just after a full moon!

[pavyracer]

Your saying HOME TEAMS that are getting +9 or more?

Yes home teams who are getting +9 or more at home.

[onthewhat]

Sounds good to me. Any plays today?

[durito]

what kind of teaser pavy?

[Fishhead]

I'm skeptical, but not going to dish this theory until further investigating it.

[durito]

I'm skeptical, but not going to dish this theory until further investigating it.

Surely you have an NFL database and can tell us the results right now.


Here's a little hint, it's historically profitable, but only because the dogs hit 60% ats on their own. That won't happen going forward.

[pavyracer]

what kind of teaser pavy?

Two team teaser for 6 points. Obviously you have to hit the other part of the teaser with another game irrelevant to this one.

[20Four7]

This year home dogs are not the place to be..... I haven't searched out dogs of +9 mind you.

[pavyracer]

This year home dogs are not the place to be..... I haven't searched out dogs of +9 mind you.

Don't forget the 40 F temperature part of the Pavy theory. A team has to be a dog of +9 or more at home and the temperature has to be below 40 degrees F in an outdoor stadium.

[Flying Dutchman]

what about an indoor stadium?

[20Four7]

you never said an outdoor stadium you just said temp of 40F or below.... now your changing the equation mind you I understood it to be that anyways.

[Flying Dutchman]

Let's see: homer dogs + 9, not a lot of those, and the temp gotta be less than 40 degrees.

You've got maybe 5-6 occurrences of this since gamebooks came out?

yeah, I buy it.

[pavyracer]

Don't hate the player hate the theory. I did not say it occurs often but when it occurs like it did today cash it and don't complain.

[james4512]

i dont know about teasing statistics but teams getting 14 or more points at home this year are 8-1 ATS. Your welcome sammy

[The Seer]

you never said an outdoor stadium you just said temp of 40F or below.... now your changing the equation mind you I understood it to be that anyways.

duh what do u think he posted the temperature for. They aren't gonna have the ac turned up that much.

Pavy, you would have to look at past games in that situation and I think it depends on the home location of the other team, etc. could be something to keep your eye on though.

[pavyracer]

duh what do u think he posted the temperature for. They aren't gonna have the ac turned up that much.

Pavy, you would have to look at past games in that situation and I think it depends on the home location of the other team, etc. could be something to keep your eye on though.

Notice that both Browns and Redskins covered today. Obviously the pool is small but I think a +15 or more home dog (when teased by 6 points) will not lose by that much at home when the weather is below 40 F in an outdoor stadium.

[Chi_archie]

interesting

[Bread]

Man this would be a great question for the Think Tank!

[durito]

I only have temp data back to 2001.

You get all of 7 games that qualify.

Home teams are 3-4 ATS. And 4-3 in a 6pt tease

[pavyracer]

Once the thread is moved from HTT you can't post in it durito. I will not invade your domain if you don't invade mine. I am done with the snobs of HTT. You go now and rub each other for good luck.

[StraitShooter]

Before you hammer this post this is just a handicapping theory as suggested by the purpose of this forum. If you don't agree with the theory prove it is not valid with concrete arguments.

Always tease the home team in NFL when the spread is +9 or better on days where the game time temperature is below 40 degrees F.

[pavyracer]

Don't forget about this tonight. We are 2-0 since last Sunday with Cleveland Browns & Washington Redskins.

Cleveland +10 teased to +16 qualifies as a play tonight. Lets make it 3-0!

[pavyracer]

Pavy's theory about to go 3-0 since the genius mod decided to remove it from the Think Tank.

I just love you all TT guys!

[tullamore]

Pavy who you teasing it with, or are you just buying points>

[pavyracer]

Pavy who you teasing it with, or are you just buying points>

Since this game is on Thursday I teased it with another game on Sunday that doesn't qualify as a play (Saints) but it is allowed when there are no 2 dogs +9 or better at home. Only the came tonight though qualifies as a play in the theory.

[Steeve]

Pavy, just curious: why do you have to tease it? Wouldn't your theory hold up as a straight wager?

[durito]

Once the thread is moved from HTT you can't post in it durito. I will not invade your domain if you don't invade mine. I am done with the snobs of HTT. You go now and rub each other for good luck.

i have 10,000 posts on SBR, and maybe 40 of them are in the think tank

[pavyracer]

Pavy, just curious: why do you have to tease it? Wouldn't your theory hold up as a straight wager?

Well because in order to work you have to get +15 points or better for the dog at home. The idea is no team will go blow out another team on the road on harsh conditions. It's very hard to find games to apply this theory all year long.

[Steeve]

Got it. Thanks for the explanation. I have no experience playing teasers.

What if you added to your theory the opponent's city of origin? In other words, an away team from Houston or Phoenix would be even more likely to lose under your criteria. Follow me? As opposed to the away team being Buffalo.

[pavyracer]

Like I said you need to first find a home dog of +9 or better and then the temperature has to be below 40F in an outdoor stadium. I do not want to make the theory any harder to follow. Keep it simple. No need to add Fourier, Lamage or Picasso mathematical equations in it.

[durito]

7-3 since 2001. 70% isn't profitable

[pavyracer]

Carolina Panthers qualifies as a play today.

If Buffalo Bills moves to 8.5 it qualifies. Right now it is not a play.

[MrMonkey]

I think I have Pavy's theory down and he has been hinting at it? He plays his bets his normal variable size and then puts 1 unit on all the plays from JJ's spreadsheet. The opposite of course! You can't have mash potatoes without some gravy on top. Eh!