Ignorant Question but anyways (Justin, Think Tankers)

[TPowell]

Team A opens up at -4
Line ends at -5.5
Line never was higher than -5.5 until close to gametime.

Would you not bet the +5.5 100% of the time because it was the best line out there???

[tullamore]

Team A opens up at -4
Line ends at -5.5
Line never was higher than -5.5 until close to gametime.

Would you not bet the +5.5 100% of the time because it was the best line out there???

you still need to figure out your edge.

[BadBeatBodog]

The 'best line' was -4. How much of an edge do you have with +5.5 when the closing line is +5.5?

[RogueScholar]

Of course, if you're betting a team for a reason and not just blindly line shopping you always take the bet with the most possible winning outcomes at the lowest vig.

[jayc88]

if the line closed at +5.5 -110, there is no value betting the 5.5

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

Of course, if you're betting a team for a reason and not just blindly line shopping you always take the bet with the most possible winning outcomes at the lowest vig.

The bet with the nmost possible winning outcomes is always the underdawg so how can your statement be true

[BadBeatBodog]

if the line closed at +5.5 -110, there is no value betting the 5.5

That's not necessarily true and I think my post implied that. If you are handicapping a game and +5.5 represents value you bet it 100% of the time. What the line closes at, and whether or not you got the 'best line,' doesn't affect if you have an edge (assuming your model is accurate). If you have a perceived edge you bet it.

[Dunder]

Not sure I follow your logic. It is the best line out there for a reason i.e. all of the money is on the other side.
The closing line is just about the best reflecton you will get of true probability and I would say with a good degree of confidence that blindly betting against the weight of money would produce results slightly <50pct.

[BadBeatBodog]

Not sure I follow your logic. It is the best line out there for a reason i.e. all of the money is on the other side.
The closing line is just about the best reflecton you will get of true probability and I would say with a good degree of confidence that blindly betting against the weight of money would produce results slightly <50pct.

Is this in response to my post? Of course the closing line is most accurate but that doesn't mean it's 100%. This is a hypothetical situation with a one-game sample. I believe there are people out there with models who can at least occasionally find an edge over a closing line.

[Dunder]

Is this in response to my post? Of course the closing line is most accurate but that doesn't mean it's 100%. This is a hypothetical situation with a one-game sample. I believe there are people out there with models who can at least occasionally find an edge over a closing line.

No, it was is response to the OP who asked whether it was viable to bet the +5.5 100pct of the time.

[BadBeatBodog]

OK gotcha. I think I misunderstood the point of the OP. Of course it's great to get down on the 'best line,' but when the 'best line' is equal to the closing line there is no inherent edge.

Best line =/= inherent edge

[jayc88]

That's not necessarily true and I think my post implied that. If you are handicapping a game and +5.5 represents value you bet it 100% of the time. What the line closes at, and whether or not you got the 'best line,' doesn't affect if you have an edge (assuming your model is accurate). If you have a perceived edge you bet it.

i would rather use the closing line in an efficient market as an indicator for my value as any kind of model

[BadBeatBodog]

i would rather use the closing line in an efficient market as an indicator for my value as any kind of model

Obviously. When did I say differently? I plainly put in my post we are talking about an established model. Therefore, we can assume there is value if my established model says the line should be four and it's five and a half.

[twister]

Obviously. When did I say differently? I plainly put in my post we are talking about an established model. Therefore, we can assume there is value if my established model says the line should be four and it's five and a half.

Indeed. If you model has proven to be +EV over say...5,000 plays, and it states that the line should be +4 but it closes on +5.5 then bet the hell out of it.

[Justin7]

If the closing line was +5.5, that is probably the fair line. Betting into a fair line will lose money long-term.

[pavyracer]

Line is irrelevant to the outcome of the game. Cap the game and don't worry about the line. If you don't like the line play the ML or tease it to what you like.

[roasthawg]

The 'best line' was -4. How much of an edge do you have with +5.5 when the closing line is +5.5?

This answer's correct... -4 was the best line you could've gotten in this game. There was never a +ev line available on the dog, assuming that the closing line is a true 50/50.