Anybody else like UVA ML +125?

[jellobiafra]

Caveat - I am a UVA fan.

Having said that, I do like them in this matchup. Virginia started a little rough for their first two games, which was to be expected with a new staff and completely new system in place. They got destroyed by USF in the second half of their 2nd game, but that was a terrible matchup for them. Gilchrist and their other 6'10 guy were just too much for a hoo's squad missing their only inside defensive presence - 7'0 center Assane Sene. Sene came back last game and they have really looked good against admittedly weak competition (Rider and Oral Roberts).

I'm starting to see some real aspect of Tony (and father Dick) Bennett's Blocker-Mover offense being instilled. The Pack-Line defense is really starting to operate the way it should too. This guy is one of the top defensive coaches in the nation. His system stifles other teams, denying the baseline and forcing teams to shoot over top of a packed middle. Stanford is familiar with Bennett's unique systems, but they are also going to be down this season with no more Lopez brothers down low.

I really think this is a coin flip game and UVA + anything is good value.

[lyon804]

Good Analysis

[jellobiafra]

Good Analysis

Thanks. I really DID NOT like them vs USF. I really DID like them vs Rider and they won by 32. They also just destroyed ORU the other day. Eddie Sutton's son is the coach there and he had some really complimentary things to say about UVA's schemes. I hesitated to post this today because I don't want to come across as a homer, but they have looked really good the past two games and I think they are a severely underrated team due to the past few years. They have some decent talent with ACC FOY Sylven Landesberg on the wing and PF Mike Scott on the blocks. And defense travels well, so to speak.

Tony Bennett worked miracles at WSU, winning an AP National Coach of the Year award two seasons ago. He's no flash in the pan either. Anybody who knows anything about basketball knows the legend that his father is.

[lyon804]

Thanks. I really DID NOT like them vs USF. I really DID like them vs Rider and they won by 32. They also just destroyed ORU the other day. Eddie Sutton's son is the coach there and he had some really complimentary things to say about UVA's schemes. I hesitated to post this today because I don't want to come across as a homer, but they have looked really good the past two games and I think they are a severely underrated team due to the past few years. They have some decent talent with ACC FOY Sylven Landesberg on the wing and PF Mike Scott on the blocks. And defense travels well, so to speak.

Tony Bennett worked miracles at WSU, winning an AP National Coach of the Year award two seasons ago. He's no flash in the pan either. Anybody who knows anything about basketball knows the legend that his father is.

I respect your opinion. I know you make good decisons. I actually made money tailing your pick with UVA against Rider. I will most likely tail this one as well

[lyon804]

Also this has a high chance of working because there is no interest on it. I posted a thread last nite about the MNF game total going under possibly because there was not much interest on it. Needless to say I cashed.

Don't know anything but I like are chances here.

[jellobiafra]

Just checked the line movement and UVA is getting hit. They were plus 3-3.5 this morning and I see them at plus 2-2.5 now. I guess I'm not the only one seeing value here. Good luck!

[pavyracer]

Solid pick and analysis.

[lyon804]

I just locked it @ +125 ML

[jellobiafra]

One thing I really like about the way the offense is developing is that they are sharing the ball and showing patience. Patience, smart shot selection is a hallmark of Bennett's style because success is so predicated on good decision-making and solid defense in this system. They don't run up the floor and chuck the first open look they get. Therefore, they don't give up many (if any real) transition opportunities on the other end. UVA has been dictating pace. It's taken a few games to get out of their old mode of chuck and duck, but they are developing quickly.

A stat I love is that the past two games they have double figure scoring from 4 different players in each. No one player has scored more than 17 points in either game - they are all in the 11-17 range. That shows unselfishness and balance on offense. The more balanced an offense, the more deliberate they can be and the harder they are to defend.

Alright, I don't want to overdue it here so I'll leave it at that.

[koby25]

Nice analysis

[lyon804]

You are making me want to up my bet here. Good analysis again! Maybe I'll stick around and you can teach me a thing or two about capping games. Me, I am not a handicapper. I like to go the other direction of the public, which has served me well more times than not when I switched methods. My handicapping must blow because I wasn't very successful at that, but the method's I use now to beat the spread have been working for a couple of years now. I like to find trap lines and trap games and go the other way. Kinda like Cleveland St +12.5

[jellobiafra]

You are making me want to up my bet here. Good analysis again! Maybe I'll stick around and you can teach me a thing or two about capping games. Me, I am not a handicapper. I like to go the other direction of the public, which has served me well more times than not when I switched methods. My handicapping must blow because I wasn't very successful at that, but the method's I use now to beat the spread have been working for a couple of years now. I like to find trap lines and trap games and go the other way. Kinda like Cleveland St +12.5

Please don't up anything based on my analysis. It makes me nervous already to think I influenced your initial wager.

I am not really a handicapper either. I tried it and like you wasn't very successful. Now I just play lines like you, try to follow what I perceive to be sharp money.... let the ones with the statistical models do the work and then reap the rewards with them.

As I said in the first line of the original post - I am a UVA fan. I follow them very closely and I'm reading nothing but positive things coming out of those circles about the way the team is developing and how quickly they are taking to the new coach and his style of play. That doesn't mean they can't suffer a major letdown tonight, but I really feel like they're at the start of something really good for once in a long while.

[lyon804]

Please don't up anything based on my analysis. It makes me nervous already to think I influenced your initial wager.

I am not really a handicapper either. I tried it and like you wasn't very successful. Now I just play lines like you, try to follow what I perceive to be sharp money.... let the ones with the statistical models do the work and then reap the rewards with them.

As I said in the first line of the original post - I am a UVA fan. I follow them very closely and I'm reading nothing but positive things coming out of those circles about the way the team is developing and how quickly they are taking to the new coach and his style of play. That doesn't mean they can't suffer a major letdown tonight, but I really feel like they're at the start of something really good for once in a long while.

Jello, it's cool man. I am not a degen like 96% here. I like the analysis. I think you are right. This game is a coin flip yet we are getting +125. I'll take that win,lose, or draw. Don't be nervous about me tailing you. I am well within my limits and have been a major winner over the last few weeks. It's one unit. If I win great. If I lose oh well.

I am not going to be one of those obnoxious fukks that talks shit if they lose. Last I checked they were expected to lose by Vegas, but we are getting +125 on a toss up game. Nothing to be ashamed about if we lose. Plays like this I can live with one way or the other.

I appreciate your help and analysis either way. If you have any other opinions on games please post them. Problem most people don't have the balls to post because of the fukks that will let them have it when it doesn't work. GL to you! After it wins I will post my ticket so you don't have heartburn while watching it.
1 unit bet for me is substantial to most people.

[blittydeuce]

Im gonna blindly tail because I hear black people know a thing or two about basketball. GL

[jellobiafra]

Im gonna blindly tail because I hear black people know a thing or two about basketball. GL

[pavyracer]

I did a three team parlay with Virginia, Drexel and Yale.

[jellobiafra]

This line is getting hammered. It's making me nervous to see so many people on it. At least the line is acting right and moving with the action.

You got a good line if you got it +125. It looks like +105 most places now. The spread is down to 1.5. This might be a pick by tipoff.

[lyon804]

This line is getting hammered. It's making me nervous to see so many people on it. At least the line is acting right and moving with the action.

You got a good line if you got it +125. It looks like +105 most places now. The spread is down to 1.5. This might be a pick by tipoff.

We beat the closing number +125, it now -110ML at The Greek

[jellobiafra]

Damn this line flew. Must have been my post.

It's a pick all over the place now.

[jellobiafra]

Still moving hard. Virginia is gonna be favored by the time this closes.

[jellobiafra]

Bad news. Starting 2 guard isn't playing the 1st half. Probably broke curfew. We have some depth there and he's not a star, but still....

[jellobiafra]

Link to game if anyone wants to watch. Should tip at about 7:15.

http://www.justin.tv/accfootball

[jellobiafra]

Virginia by 1 at the half. Stanford shot the lights out early - made their first 5 3's. Finally they started to cool off. Virginia is more athletic and is working on defense. If Stanford comes back to earth from 3 I like our chances. Seems like UVA took some momentum into the half.

[jellobiafra]

Stanford by 3 with 10 to go. This is gutwrenching. UVA can't do anything on offense the second half.

[jellobiafra]

UVA took the lead 46-45 with about 6 minutes left, since have proceeded to shit all over themselves. This one is a loser guys. Good line, bad play. Sorry.

[HoulihansTX]

I had them at +2. What shit play toward end of the game. straight loser.

[pavyracer]

**** me. My other two parlay plays hit.

[lyon804]

**** me. My other two parlay plays hit.

That's nothing Pavy....

Check this out. Since I bet them straight also it was a good nite anyways, but look.


Nov 24 6:57pm4 Team Parlay - Loss50.00 to win 579.15-50.00 1. Basketball - Western Carolina - spread -16 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 24 at 7:30pm [winner] 2. Basketball - Virginia - spread +1 (-115)
for the entire game held on Nov 24 at 7:00pm [loss] 3. Basketball - Golden State Warriors - spread +4 (-115)
for the 1st quarter held on Nov 24 at 8:35pm [winner] 4. Basketball - Los Angeles Lakers - spread -8 (-110)
for the 1st half held on Nov 24 at 10:35pm [winner]

[lyon804]

Well that's life. I hit a huge two teamer last nite that paid $3380 though.

Get em next time Jello. Not your fault. We didn't have to play it.