Will nadal overtake federer and become world no1 bt the end of the year.
I think so.
gridironguy
SBR Wise Guy
04-17-07
575
#2
I am a fan of Nadal, but what gives you the confidence that he'll win a major other than the French?
Since his Wimbledon Final where Federer rocked him, he had an earl exit from the 2006 US Open, an early exit from the 2007 Australian Open, and his usual clay-court season dominance. He is the best player ever on clay, that is undisputed.
Federer is still the king and the favorite to win this year's Wimbledon and US Open. Federer has been struggling -- he looks a little bored. But when the grass and hardcourt seasons roll around, he'll wake up again. Federer lives for the majors, which is why he's won the last 3.
2006 Wimbledon, 2006 US Open, 2007 Australian. Yes, the last 3 majors all won by Federer.
Again, I really like Nadal and I root for him to win all the time, but thinking that a 25 yr old Federer is his prime will not get up for the upcoming majors is crazy.
Nadal is the clear favorite to win the French again this year, but don't think for a second that Federer won't be waiting for him at Wimbledon and the US Open.
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nikosgr
Restricted User
08-26-05
218
#3
Federer is here to stay and brake all records.
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BigBollocks
SBR MVP
06-11-06
2045
#4
Federer himself said he expects Nadal to be #1 by year's close. I think Nadal will have an extremely good next two months, and I wouldn't discount the chance he might win Wimbledon (last year's grass Wimbledon was no fluke as when Nadal is in peak form he just doesn't know how to lose). He may or may not experience burnout again come the North American swing at the end of the summer. How many points Federer is able to accrue in Paris should be the ultimate decider....
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gridironguy
SBR Wise Guy
04-17-07
575
#5
I expect Nadal to win his 3rd Grand Slam by taking Roland Garros again.
I also expect Federer to take his 11th and 12th Grand Slams at Wimbledon and the US Open, respectively.
Until Nadal can beat Federer at Wimbledon, he won't win there, because the road to the Wimbledon crown goes through Federer. He will likely surpass Sampras as the best grasscourt player of all time.
The half grass/half clay court that they played on a few weeks ago doesn't count.
:-)
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vanman
SBR MVP
02-08-07
1163
#6
Nadal can improve his ranking points by at least 1000 with no great problem,if he can win wimbledon which i believe he will then that would put him bang on course to be no1
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isetcap
SBR MVP
12-16-05
4006
#7
He'll need his left arm to become at least 3 times bigger than his right. He's close though.
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jjgold
SBR Aristocracy
07-20-05
388179
#8
Nadal racking up points with all these clay wins and will catch him
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nep1293
SBR Sharp
01-27-07
443
#9
Nadal isn't racking up points. He's simply defending the points he already had. Last year when Nadal defeated Federer in the French Open final, Federer actually INCREASED his hold on #1 due to the fact that Nadal received the same amount of points for the French while Federer received more from advancing further than he did the previous year.
The only way Nadal will overtake Federer is if Federer starts losing in the early rounds of tournaments he's defending, coupled with Nadal improving over last years results in tournament he didn't do well in.
Barring injury, Federer will remain # 1 for quite a long time
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vanman
SBR MVP
02-08-07
1163
#10
Originally posted by nep1293
Nadal isn't racking up points. He's simply defending the points he already had. Last year when Nadal defeated Federer in the French Open final, Federer actually INCREASED his hold on #1 due to the fact that Nadal received the same amount of points for the French while Federer received more from advancing further than he did the previous year.
The only way Nadal will overtake Federer is if Federer starts losing in the early rounds of tournaments he's defending, coupled with Nadal improving over last years results in tournament he didn't do well in.
Barring injury, Federer will remain # 1 for quite a long time
Go and look at the break down of how they have amassed their points
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nep1293
SBR Sharp
01-27-07
443
#11
Originally posted by vanman
Go and look at the break down of how they have amassed their points
Well, more of what i meant is that he isn't gaining any ground on Federer by winning tournaments he won last year. He is getting points every time he wins but he doesn't actually gain any points. Example: Nadal received 500 points for winning Rome last week, however he lost 500 points from the previous year's win in Rome so he just breaks even. The points only count for 1 year.
both Nadal and Federer didn't play Hamburg last year, so whoever advances further this week will gain points on the other.
Federer would have to have early losses at Wimbledon and the US Open and have Nadal make deep runs at those tournaments for the ranking points to really swing the other way
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gridironguy
SBR Wise Guy
04-17-07
575
#12
Nep, am I correct in assuming that the pts are weighted more towards Grand Slam events?
I would think that the ATS ppl are more concerned with Grand Slams than the smaller tournaments..
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tribet
SBR High Roller
08-12-06
171
#13
No chance really as he won't gain many more points during the clay court season as he has so many to defend,I don't think he will have a run at Wimbledon as good as last year and after the grass court season he will probably be shagged like last year although he didn't play much hard court so he has points to gain there.
I'd put him at 6/1 to be No1 although I think he might win the Champions Race.
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nep1293
SBR Sharp
01-27-07
443
#14
Originally posted by gridironguy
Nep, am I correct in assuming that the pts are weighted more towards Grand Slam events?
I would think that the ATS ppl are more concerned with Grand Slams than the smaller tournaments..
Yeah, the winner of the Grand Slams receive 1000 Points. The next tier of events are the Masters Series events where the winner gets 500 points.
That is why there is such a huge difference between Federer, Nadal and then everybody else. Nadal and Federer control the Slams and the Masters, everyone else's wins come in smaller events.
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bigboydan
SBR Aristocracy
08-10-05
55420
#15
Originally posted by gridironguy
I expect Nadal to win his 3rd Grand Slam by taking Roland Garros again.
I agree... I feel he should win that tourney as well. The problem is that it will be a short term run at #1, because he won't win off the clay for a long period of time.
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sportsmaster
SBR Hustler
06-07-07
58
#16
I think Nadal will win this years French Open but Federer will win Wimbledon and we will see Nadal loosing in the 1st or 2nd round..