Does anyone solely bet on ML and ignore the spreadline?

flyingillini · 11-20-09, 12:10 AM

Unreal, you can't make this stuff up.

Vesuvius · 11-20-09, 12:12 AM

interesting thread, would like to see what others have to say...

roasthawg · 11-20-09, 12:14 AM

I bet the spread and ignore the ml but that's because I don't have previous ml's to look at.

johncrud · 11-20-09, 12:23 AM

Think of this way too.. Wagering on the moneyline prevents backdoor cover, getting moose or "ref rigging the game".

I specifically looking for game matchups in which one team is historically dominant than the other team. As for tomorrow, I am leaning on the Denver.

I guess I don't even need ML for the Lakers now.

johncrud · 11-20-09, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by roasthawg

I bet the spread and ignore the ml but that's because I don't have previous ml's to look at.

As long as you are making the bucks then its fine..

This strategy has made me less stressful while watching the score/game..

lakerboy · 11-20-09, 12:38 AM

If it was this easy then books wouldn't have moneyline available

G's pks · 11-20-09, 12:44 AM

maannggg I bet quite a few ML...but have been mixing in quite a few more dogs lately... I also like to buy points...have lakers tonight -7 manggg bgt3...should not be needed...maaanngg!

Shortstop · 11-20-09, 12:49 AM

Once you mentioned Jim Morrison, I quit reading.

durito · 11-20-09, 12:50 AM

moneylines are typically less efficient than spreads, thus the lower limits. but, your strategy isn't going to win.

Rich Boy · 11-20-09, 12:58 AM

Do you have any data to back up this claim?

Do you think your the first person in the world to try this method?

Do you think your smarter than bookmakers?

If you can answer "YES" to any of these questions, you shouldnt be betting on sports.

johncrud · 11-20-09, 01:00 AM

The Jack Morrison System isn't that bad..

johncrud · 11-20-09, 01:07 AM

I have been using this strategy over a week and I haven't lost yet simply because I am selecting my picks carefully. I expected losses just any systems that you and I have used in the past. As long as I am making some dough, then I won't stop. Assumed that each play is 5 units in general and it will cost me 5 days of work.. Big deal, I already way pass 5 days of winning streak now.

At -470 ML (mb), you can get a -10 spreadline for NFL. you and I know the significance of 10 points. All I need for my team is to win by 1 point. Easy, Set, and Done.

As I am speaking, Lakers spreadline is about to get backdoor...

G's pks · 11-20-09, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

The Jack Morrison System isn't that bad..

Do you mean John Morrison!

20Four7 · 11-20-09, 02:10 AM

Wow a whole week.... That's a huge sample in itself buddy.

What others have said, now time to move on.

MickChunky · 11-20-09, 02:30 AM

Picking your spots is the key, look for good dog spot bets too, like the Hornets last night. I agree with you, but 1 big loss could kill your roll. If you stay below say -500 ml you should continue to make a profit, if you stay smart and pick spots.

It does make watching a game much less stressful and IMO better than teasing 2 teams down to a pick.

johncrud · 11-20-09, 02:56 AM

you got it bro..

I have mentioned of several key things you have to look for. One of them is home court. Pho has a great record this year but they weren't playing at home court last night, and they have a horrible record against N.O historically so I chose the Lakers instead. (The top performing teams lose about 4-7 games at home throughout the season. That is low). The Cav only had 2 losses at home last year..

Like I said, I am only doing one game a day and somedays none. If I don't find anything that I like on that day, then I don't play it. The profit is quite good if you consistently win. If you can win 100 bucks each day, then you are in good shape.

I am sticking to odds between -450 to -550 in general so that it leaves me 4-5 days to recover back to my original spot if I lose.

Here is a game I liked alot.. Pittsburg Steelers ML

I will probably drop Denvers out and stick with the Steelers.. Kansas can only stomp severely bad teams with 0-16 record but it cannot beat teams with winning record. Not saying that it isn't possible but the probability is low.

MexicanStallion · 11-20-09, 03:28 AM

Make a thread for your plays and keep a record. Of course one loss would only take less than a week to recover from, but what if you happened to lose back to back? Then that sets you back around two weeks. Good luck though sir.

johncrud · 11-20-09, 03:41 AM

Losing back to back is one of the worst case scenario but I try not to let it happen. If you observe some of the high spreadline, you would think it is non-sense. THE line for MIA vs T.B is +/-10. MIA almost lost to T.B. on that game too. T.B sucks but MIA isn't that good to deserve a -10. These are one type of matches that I would avoid. There is really no clear difference in strength between the two teams. Check out the ML from -7 and up, you will find that 90% are winners. The max ML for me is -550 and that will translate into a -10 spreadline. Spreadline between -8.5 through -10 is great.

20Four7 · 11-20-09, 03:51 AM

Dude,

Find dogs that you think will win outright. Your percentage may be way lower but the profits are highter....If you really think betting into -600 or so lines is good, then good for you but your wrong....

MexicanStallion · 11-20-09, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

Losing back to back is one of the worst case scenario but I try not to let it happen. If you observe some of the high spreadline, you would think it is non-sense. THE line for MIA vs T.B is +/-10. MIA almost lost to T.B. on that game too. T.B sucks but MIA isn't that good to deserve a -10. These are one type of matches that I would avoid. There is really no clear difference in strength between the two teams. Check out the ML from -7 and up, you will find that 90% are winners. The max ML for me is -550 and that will translate into a -10 spreadline. Spreadline between -8.5 through -10 is great.

Well I think if you made a thread and record your plays it could be a good visual for everyone. See how you start a week off and then the month and see what your profit looks like. Just a suggestion.

iceminers26 · 11-20-09, 04:14 AM

when i opened up this thread i thought it was going to be about underdogs and if you should do a 3to1 or 4to1, etc. on the spread to ml, but i was wrong.

dude, you are setting yourself up for disaster playing high favs on the ml. just think about it, i will use the -700 because u did, if you play 7 games in a week at -700 to win 100, you have to go undefeated to make a profit, lose just 1 and you are even for the week.

PAPSMEAR · 11-20-09, 04:31 AM

buying money is not financially wise.

jjgold · 11-20-09, 05:56 AM

Originally posted by johncrud

I have been using this strategy over a week and I haven't lost yet simply because I am selecting my picks carefully. I expected losses just any systems that you and I have used in the past. As long as I am making some dough, then I won't stop. Assumed that each play is 5 units in general and it will cost me 5 days of work.. Big deal, I already way pass 5 days of winning streak now.

At -470 ML (mb), you can get a -10 spreadline for NFL. you and I know the significance of 10 points. All I need for my team is to win by 1 point. Easy, Set, and Done.

As I am speaking, Lakers spreadline is about to get backdoor...

Johnny eventually like any other system you will get destroyed. There is no way to beat them.

LLXC · 11-20-09, 06:39 AM

Only when the value of the ML is greater than the spread, which it almost never is.

jayc88 · 11-20-09, 07:09 AM

g's pks likes to bet huge moneyline favs,
i'm still puzzled how he knew ravens ml on mnf would be a winner

beach nut · 11-20-09, 07:48 AM

I'm a big fan of ML parlays.

Rich Boy · 11-21-09, 11:21 PM

Squares'R'Us in the thread...

I bet your bookie is jizzing all over the place after reading a thread like this