Hey everybody I know some of you also invest in the second best market in the world known as the stock market. Since it has been going up almost everyday for about two months, I would like to warn everybody before it slams down like a two ton anvil on your wallet. A lot of indicators are pointing to a "correction" in the market and I think that it will happen before the end of the month. This will prove the old saying of "Sell in May and go away". Please take this as a warning to not "get in" or start "taking profits", or at the very least use tight stops. This market is gaining very speculative momentum and is way overbought, something will happen soon that will act as a catalist for down side movement.
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It is certainly over bought. But I like to tell people to ride out corrections. Look how fast the last correction recorrected.
But I could certainly see 2nd qtr numbers not meeting expectations. I would look for a soft market later in the summer.Comment -
I agree that in some stocks that riding out the corrections is the way to go, however I like to use short term (not day trading) methods and I also like to short at certain times. This is one of those times.Comment -
rage.. im a trader as well and certainly have no real concerns about which way the market goes.. but let me disagree for several reasons..
1. corperate buybacks.. public companys frustrated by low pe ratios are going to buy back 5% of all shares outstanding this year.
2. mutual fund outflows... money came out of us mutual funds for the 5th straight week this week.. this is a contrary indicator as most markets dont top until you get the public money back to chasing stocks.. the public is still disinterested in this rally.. that will change
3. put/ratios.. put buying has been super heavy every time we get the slightest correction.. this is also a contrary indicator.
4. the commercial traders( or the smart money) are as long as they have been since the fall of 2005.. they were right then as well.
5. large cap focus.. usuallly towrds the very end of market moves higher, you see an explosion in small cap, bulletin board and penny stocks.. the ultimate sign of speculation.. this has not happened yet.
6. blow off top.. also at market tops you usually see some sort of extreme upside volitility to set a top on huge volume.. we are still just grinding higher.
just some quick thoughtsComment -
The OEX pit for calls and puts is dead.Comment -
that is true.. not what it used to beComment -
what language are you guys talking in? I am a simple cavemen...I don't understand your complicated ways...Comment -
I don't agree with any of those sayings as they are just that...sayings... The game is fixed and has always been... Stats do NOT matter in a rigged market... It might correct and I would not doubt if it did but as I said during the last correction... when it comes back it will come back higher then what it was... We have inflation and to put it simply...the Fed is moving this up with the money they create which is inflationary... If they inflate the market 10% but in the process devalue the currency 10% then relatively speaking we are where we started but to the public (who don't know any better) it looks like it made gains... We will likely see 20K on the dow by the turn of the decade but the currency will be worth sh*t...Comment -
"what language are you guys talking in? I am a simple cavemen...I don't understand your complicated ways..."
Keighrok.. just keep suing crummy airlines and evereything will be fineComment -
It's a bet... Anything... hmmm let's see... are you married..?Comment -
Listening to a trader about the stock market is like listening to a realtor about the real estate market.
It's their job to look at things glass half full...
I do not know much about the stock market and I am quite sure you are making many valid points but given that you are a trader, it's your job to be optimistic about the market and it will definitely prevent you from looking at things objectively...
PedroComment -
pedro... please
as a trader i can go long or go short. it matters not to me..Comment
