sports rankings (as profitablitlty is concerned)

jjgold · 05-03-07, 06:35 AM

On most lists college sports will be on the bottom college kids are not pros therefore very unpreditcable.

LT Profits · 05-03-07, 06:52 AM

Man I disagree with both of you guys. I think the college sports are easier to beat because the lines aren't as sharp with so many games going on.

This is a very interesting topic though so I will give my rankings too:

1 - CFB
2 - CBB (You'd think this would be #1 with 837 games per day, but I have almost always done better in CFB for some reason)
3 - NHL (easiest pro sport to beat for me)
4 - MLB
5 - NBA
6 - NFL (by far the sharpest lines)

mavs1978 · 05-03-07, 07:55 AM

LT.. what is your general strategy in the college hoops? the problem for me is... in febuary theres nothing else to bet on..

SBR_John · 05-03-07, 08:14 AM

Most bookmakers will tell you that MLB and NHL are the hardest for them to make money on, hence, the players win the most at. NFL is said to be the hardest to cap.

mavs1978 · 05-03-07, 10:20 AM

in the nfl the public usually gets smoked.. it pays to fade.. handicapping is useless in the nfl

crackerjack · 05-03-07, 10:25 AM

I agree that MLB is easiest, if you have the time to invest in handicapping, as well as patience and good money management skills.

College basketball is easy if you focus on a small to mid conference and just bet those games. You can find some soft lines.

One you are missing because it's not very popular (and the lines often have large juice) is PGA tournament (and single round) matchups. If you love golf and follow the tour, you can find some great value. I've won consistently on this since I started betting on it in 2004.

mavs1978 · 05-03-07, 10:33 AM

i agree.. the golf is very good.. fairway jay is an excellent golf capper

BuddyBear · 05-03-07, 11:35 AM

1. NCAAF
2. MLB
3. NCAAB
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93. NBA
94. NFL

NBA and NFL are by far the hardest out there....Most pros will stay away from those sports or tread lightly or just make plays here and there. Lines are extraordinarily sharp and there is usually little value in any of the games out there. Fading the public is an oversimplication of how hard it is to make money in sports. I use to think that it was just find out who the public is on and fade them and true it will work from time to time but in the end you'll probably just hit around 50% and the juice will start to kill you.

Mudcat · 05-03-07, 11:50 AM

I find NFL is best in terms of profit-per-game. The problem is there are so few games relatively speaking, that it does not come close to generating the most net dollars.

Baseball makes the most money for me.

The worst for me right now is NHL. The rule changes before last season changed the game and screwed up my established angles. Since then, I got nothing. I need to put in the time to start some new research but I haven't gotten around to it.

WileOut · 05-03-07, 11:51 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

On most lists college sports will be on the bottom college kids are not pros therefore very unpreditcable.

LT Profits · 05-03-07, 01:23 PM

Mudcat,

I respectfully disagree regarding NHL. The general conception was that the rule changes would open up the game and that there would thus be more OVERS. Well that simply has not been the case, and I have had an "UNDERful" year betting under artificially inflated totals.
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mavs1978,

Regarding CBB, how many hours you got? LOL

As for fading the public in the NFL, if you blindly did that and nothing else, you'd still end up only in the 53-54% range, not enough to make it a long-term endeavor
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SBR_John,

Yes, the Bookmakers view you point out here is consistent with my pro sport rankings.
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Buddy Bear,

Yours is the best post of all, although I would make MLB and NHL 2a and 2b
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durito · 05-03-07, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

As for fading the public in the NFL, if you blindly did that and nothing else, you'd still end up only in the 53-54% range, not enough to make it a long-term endeavor

I highly doubt simply fading the public will hit in the 53-54% range.

Nevertheless, if it did, that is still a profitable range, especially if you are getting down at -104 or less which is easily done on the nfl. It's not a huge profit % wise, but it'd certainly be worth the investment if it was truely that simple.

Say you are only betting 50 games a year. At 54%, betting 4% of your bankroll per game would leave you with almost 0% chance of going broke.

27-23(1.04) = 3.08 * 4% = 12.32% return over a 4 month season. sign me up.

Arilou · 05-03-07, 02:11 PM

One interesting element of this is bankroll size, because you need to move to bigger markets as you get larger. When smaller, you can do smaller sports and still get down at good numbers or even find special lines (first halves, team totals, you name it) to help out. An obscure NCAAB conference is a great way to make a little, but you can never make a lot. On the flip side, NFL is very complex and hard to cap and has few games, but each game offers the chance to bet a ton.

Overall, I'd say nothing can touch MLB, but after that it's tough. A lot depends on what angles you find - for two years I stayed away from NBA, then I found a way to attack it until they stopped playing real basketball, and the playoffs have their own issues. After MLB I'd go with NCAAF and NFL, but keep in mind that I've never liked or tried to bet NHL.

Also I can agree that small stuff, in particular Golf and Tennis, are VERY soft if you know your way around the sport.

mavs1978 · 05-03-07, 02:37 PM

as far as the nfl is concerned its obviously not as simple as just fading the public.. i like to find unique situations that dont come up very often.. here are a few

1. fade the public when they are on the home dog on sun/mon night football.. this is rare

2. look for spots were teams with inferior records are at least a td favorite...

3. just a general observation...you cant trust wagerline.com.. no money actually being wagered.. i have friends that are in the bookmaking business who use the internet now... they let me see there back office software to show were there money is being placed.. there 50-200 dollar players are low 40% range at best.

nep1293 · 05-03-07, 05:36 PM

I'm just going to base my rankings on what i have won the most on.

1) NCAA Football - Always good plays in the lower conferences (Sun Belt, MAC, WAC, even MWC and CUSA) I think the BCS conferences are a little harder but I always seem to win in College Football. Teasers are usually solid for me too.

2) NFL - I've won a lot in Futures so this might be a notch too high. I like to bet every NFL game. With a system I use I find it easy to go at least 9-7 every week. No Parlays or Teasers though

3) NCAA BB - Again, attack the lower conferences. The MAAC has been good to me same as the Southern Conference, the Big Sky and probably a few others since there are so many to choose from.

4) NHL - I don't bet NHL anymore but when I did never lost too much, i never won too much either but it just doesn't seem to be a sport that would bust anyone

5) NBA - I find NBA really difficult, it's hard to tell who is trying in certain games. I think as long as every bet is for the same amount it could be OK, but mixing up the bet size always killed me.

6) MLB - I am really bad at baseball, I fall in love with pitching matchups and it just never works for me

7) Tennis - I've gotten killed in tennis, I don't bet it anymore so the losing has stopped. I think it's actually 1 of the funnest to bet on but just doesn't seem worth the trouble.

I seemed to do good in NFL Europe for some bizzare reason, but the amount of games makes winning big buck pretty hard.

Those are the only sports I ever seriously bet on. I've places a few golf, boxing, rugby, soccer.... but just don't really enjoy betting on those sports so why bother

FightForCalifornia · 05-03-07, 07:08 PM

When you cap for income, you cap what you know and nothing else.

I only cap one sport, and that's college football. I know college football more than coaches, more than the media and probably more than half the guys in vegas that set the lines. I' not a gambler, I have no urge to bet on other sports when I watch them. Why would you continue to bet CBB if you have lost in 10 straight years? You're flushing money down the toilet...

mavs1978 · 05-03-07, 11:59 PM

fight for cali.. i have no disipline

Mudcat · 05-04-07, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Mudcat,

I respectfully disagree regarding NHL. The general conception was that the rule changes would open up the game and that there would thus be more OVERS. Well that simply has not been the case, and I have had an "UNDERful" year betting under artificially inflated totals.

Huh? I said the NHL is my least profitable sport right now and my established angles have lost their profitability - and you disagree?