? for Fishhead and other sharps

[durito]

If I am trying to grow my bankroll as efficiently as possible, which wager is preferable:


A 55% winner at -110 odds or

a 84% winner at -400 odds

[magynuck]

Key word here is definition of efficiently. EV of 84% is higher but % of return 1st wager is higher so 1st bet will grow your BR more "efficiently". Better question....why don't I have a BR big enough to make 20 of each daily.

[durito]

I am looking for the highest expected growth of my bankroll (that is after all, all of ours priority, right?. Was hoping Fishhead could help me out here.

[magynuck]

He is probably doing the same thing as the rest of us. Many Monday night props are in and a slow day in globally so off to gym or to do other errands.

[Nicky Santoro]

at 1000$ a game..



1- 55-45--- at -110, you would win 5,500$

2- 84-16.. at -400, you would win 20,000$

[magynuck]

Why do you put these here with ROI the same on a Monday when I have nothing better to do? Why does Nicky start the math for this question with 1000 when most people would naturally solve with 100?

[jjgold]

Nicky just solved this
lock the thread

[Nicky Santoro]

Why does Nicky start the math for this question with 1000 when most people would naturally solve with 100?

alright mags, maybe it's too difficult for you to just remove one ZERO..

is this better for you?


at 100$ a game..



1- 55-45--- at -110, you would win 550$

2- 84-16.. at -400, you would win 2,000$

[Sam Odom]

Interesting coincidence! I made a -400 wager this morning

[magynuck]

No problem Nicky.
And to finish...

1. 5500/100/1100=0.05

2. 20000/100/4000=0.05

I will even give you a hockey trivia question to stump your friends.
What team did Tony Esposito begin his career with? Your habs of course.

[durito]

Nicky just solved this
lock the thread

lol

[Justin7]

If I am trying to grow my bankroll as efficiently as possible, which wager is preferable:


A 55% winner at -110 odds or

a 84% winner at -400 odds

At 55% / -110, your EV is roughly (0.55 / 1.10 - 0.45) = 5%
At 84% / 400, your EV is (0.84 / 4.0 - 0.16) = 5%

Your Kelly fraction for 55 =
0.05 * 0.91 = 4.55% of BR at risk.
For 84%:
0.05 * 4 = 20% of BR at risk.

If you made 100 bets, assume
win 55/lose 45, risking 4.55 per play
New Bankroll = old * (1 + 0.0455/1.1)^55 * (1 -0.0455) ^45
or roughly 1.14 times your old bankroll

At the 84% plays:
New bank = old * (1 + .20 / 4 ) ^84 * (1 -0.2) ^16
or roughly 1.7 times your old bankroll

I feel like I messed something up, but the results are consistent with what I remember: high moneyline bets are great, given the EV. Their lower volatility helps the long-term.

Consider this 5% EV play:
Odds of winning: 100%. Payout: -1900. This would multiply your bankroll 131 fold, risking 100% on each play.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

I messed this up the first time, but here's the table.

What you need to hit at, i.e. You're winning percentage, from different money lines.

+300.......25%
+200.......33%
+150.......40%
+120.......45%
even.......50%
-120........55%
-150........60%
-200........67%
-300........75%

to break even. so, it's better news that i thought, although my original calculation, would set a more difficult, and more profitable goal.

I think -200s are a better deal than i thought

[durito]

At 55% / -110, your EV is roughly (0.55 / 1.10 - 0.45) = 5%
At 84% / 400, your EV is (0.84 / 4.0 - 0.16) = 5%

Your Kelly fraction for 55 =
0.05 * 0.91 = 4.55% of BR at risk.
For 84%:
0.05 * 4 = 20% of BR at risk.

If you made 100 bets, assume
win 55/lose 45, risking 4.55 per play
New Bankroll = old * (1 + 0.0455/1.1)^55 * (1 -0.0455) ^45
or roughly 1.14 times your old bankroll

At the 84% plays:
New bank = old * (1 + .20 / 4 ) ^84 * (1 -0.2) ^16
or roughly 1.7 times your old bankroll

I feel like I messed something up, but the results are consistent with what I remember: high moneyline bets are great, given the EV. Their lower volatility helps the long-term.

Consider this 5% EV play:
Odds of winning: 100%. Payout: -1900. This would multiply your bankroll 131 fold, risking 100% on each play.

Thanks Justin. I was playing a bit with fishhead here, but you illustrate the point I was making. The bets have the same EV, but EG is higher on the big money line favorite. Most people consider those large favorites to be "too risky" when in fact they are less risky and preferable to underdogs with the same edges.

Consider a bet at +10,000 odds also with a 5% edge, the volatility here is so great that the EG is almost 0.


Anyone looking to play around with the numbers can use SBR's excellent Kelly Calculator: http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

[tacomax]

At 55% / -110, your EV is roughly (0.55 / 1.10 - 0.45) = 5%
At 84% / 400, your EV is (0.84 / 4.0 - 0.16) = 5%

Your Kelly fraction for 55 =
0.05 * 0.91 = 4.55% of BR at risk.
For 84%:
0.05 * 4 = 20% of BR at risk.

If you made 100 bets, assume
win 55/lose 45, risking 4.55 per play
New Bankroll = old * (1 + 0.0455/1.1)^55 * (1 -0.0455) ^45
or roughly 1.14 times your old bankroll

At the 84% plays:
New bank = old * (1 + .20 / 4 ) ^84 * (1 -0.2) ^16
or roughly 1.7 times your old bankroll

I feel like I messed something up, but the results are consistent with what I remember: high moneyline bets are great, given the EV. Their lower volatility helps the long-term.

Consider this 5% EV play:
Odds of winning: 100%. Payout: -1900. This would multiply your bankroll 131 fold, risking 100% on each play.

Good post, but Nicky beat you to it with the answer.