First thing to note is that I picked a TON of single bets. I agree with the concept that "spot-betting" is a smart move, but this week is more personal for me. I want to see how well I can make projections, so thats what I'm doing this week, more for personal fun. On my more serious plays, I increase the "units." I mentioned in a couple threads that this week is very tricky IMO, as lots of good cappers are on different sides of many games, and I think the books will get a lot of money back this week as a result. Anyway, this week I have NINETEEN (19) picks. Bear With me:
1. Texans -3 1/2 (at -105) LOCK of the Week $475: Bills are working better as a team, and this game is their home field. Also have good D ranking, particularly against the pass. However, their numbers are skewed - they have hit a lot of poor teams with poor offense. Texans have one of the best QBs right now in Shaub. Also, Bills' passing D is skewed bc most teams opt to run against the Bills, who are allowing like 4.6YPC. Who wouldn't run here?
2. Texans/Bills OVER 41 1/2 (at -110) $175: I'm more wary of Over/Under picks, but this one I like. I see projected score of 30-23 for the Texans. Crazy high projection right? Texans will run over the Bills D. We'll see if I'm right...
3. 49ers +13 (at -105) $375: Game worries me honestly. Never a good thing to bet against P. Manning and the Colts, who have been crushing their opponents for 4 weeks straight. Also, I picked this game up when Reggie Wayne, their best receiver, was looking unlikely to play this week in hopes it would impact the Colts offense. Manning's ability to spread the ball is key, and I think they'll win the game. However, Colts numbers are skewed. The last 3 teams they thumped were subpar teams (Rams, Titans and a beat-up Seattle team). Prior to that they thumped the Cardinals which was impressive, but that was a combo of good Colts play mixed with very bad Cardinals plays/turnovers. Last week Colts were -14 vs. Rams, and easily covered. But -13 vs. 49ers? This will be harder. 49ers also switched QBs which I think is good, they also have a developing WR in Crabtree, and Gore is back to run the ball. Coaching in San Fran is also much improved this year. 49ers will try to upset, but I think they will keep this within 10. Key is whether they get blown out early.
4. Colts/49ers OVER 45 (at -105) $150: I like that this was -105 instead of -110, for one. Also, I think one of 2 things will happen. Either the 49ers will make things happen and both teams will score 23+ points, OR the Colts will blowout the 49ers like the Falcons did, and cover the spread nearly on their own. If thats the case, 49ers will go to the passing game, trying to pick up points faster, and either succeeding, or comitting crucial turnovers. I guess you an call this a partial "hedge" bet in case the 49ers don't keep the game close. But I like the pick.
5. Cowboys -10 (at -105) $525: If I had to do it again I might make this a no-play as I'm less confident. Dallas WILL win. Its whether they cover -10. Seattle has been so hot and cold this year it makes them dangerous, but the only 2 teams they've thumped (both times they shutout their Opponents), were terrible teams (Rams/Jags). When they hit good teams they've been thumped themselves. Here I think Dallas is getting into a grove, and the "Jerry's world" edge I give 4 points edge to Dallas on that alone. Can Dallas cover with 1 TD in addition to that? I think so, but again this game is tricky. Lots of smart cappers are picking both sides. Tread this one with caution. I project 33-23 Final Score.
6. Titans -3 (at -105) $125: I guess it's a combo here; I don't have much respect for the Jags, and I think the Titans playing at home after a bye week will give them the edge. Also, 1 key DEF player for Jags is out this week, AND Vince Young is now starting QB. I think they needed this change, but his performance is key. Enough factors overall to pick the Titans. They NEED this win to snap their streak.
7. Jags/Titans OVER 45 (at -105) $300: Jags D is unimpressive. Hell they won vs. Rams 23-20. The RAMS. Titans coming off a bye week with QB switch will be good. Last time these 2 teams met it was high scoring, I expect the same again.
8. Cardinals -10 (at -110) $550: I picked Cards ML last week vs. Giants. This week I think they'll handily win, 34-17. Panthers QB has 5 TDs and a league-leading 13 interceptions, I expect more interceptions. Plus, Panther's will need to run well to keep this game close, but Cards are #1 run D so I don't see it happening. Too many weapons for Cardinals and the Panthers won't be able to keep up. Top 5 favorite pick this week.
9. Cardinals ML (at -550) $1000: Yeah. Cardinals won't lose. Free money!!!
10. Saints -10 (at -110) $550: They play at home vs. Atlanta. Coming off a huge comeback win last week at Miami, I think they'll try to put this one away fast. I see a high scoring game on NO side, and Falcons won't be able to keep up. Saints are 7-0 for a reason, they have an INSANE offense. Hell, they average 40 PPG. THAT is crazy. I do expect Turner to be running the ball a lot for ATL, as I think their strategy might be to control the clock/keep Saints offense off the field. It won't be enough. Projected score: 37-20.
11. Dolphins/Jets OVER 40 1/2 (-110) $550: Jets/Dolphins game I expect to be close, and it's pretty much a no play for me. HOWEVER, I do expect it to be high-scoring. I think people need to get off the bandwagon of "Dolphins won't allow many points." Look, they've got a struggling 2ndary with 2 rookie CBs playing this game. Jets also lost a Pro Bowl DEF player for the week, and last time they met the Dolphins won 31-27. Dolphins running game is SOLID, and so is the Jets (300+ YPG rushing in both of the last 2 games). This will be a run game, no doubt, but I see it as high scoring. Jets will probably mix passing game as well, so Sanchez can take advantage of weak coverage. The only negative factor is cloudy projections tomorrow. It's not bad enough to influence this game. This is a top 5 pick this week.
12.Lions -4 (at -105) $550: No doubt this is the Rams' best chance of breaking their 17-game losing streak. If they weren't such a terrible team, maybe they could pull it off. But too many factors against them. Lions are hungry too (sounds funny, but it's true). They're also coming off a bye week, and QB Stafford/WR Johnson have started practicing again after injuries. I'm pretty sure at least ONE of these guys will play tomorrow, and like it or not the Lions' offens is stronger than the Rams. Coming off a bye week as well, they've no doubtbeen prepping for this game. They NEED this win too.
13. Rams/Lions UNDER 43 1/2 (-110) $150: Both teams are bad, no doubt. They both need a win, and for the same reason. I like this under a lot, and actually am regretting not putting more on this under. I expect these teams to play their hearts out, and in so doing will be trying their damndest to prevent any scores. Neither is known for their offense, or defense. In light of this, I think their D will come through, and I project a low-scoring total.
14. Giants/Eagles UNDER 44 (-105) $200: Big Rivalry game at Philly. Both teams have solid defenses. Eagles will be without key RB Westbrook (concussion) in the lineup, and lots of plays go through him. Many of the Eagles' scores have been on big plays, and I don't see them making many big plays vs. the Giants. The Giants, coming off a big loss to the Cardinals, will look to rebound with a strong defense. Also, I expect them to play much more conservatively considering last week they had several turnovers. Thus, I think Manning will have a decent/safe day vs. the Eagles, and the Giants will rely on D to win this game.
15. Packers -3 (-110) $575: Last time Vikings had homefield and won 30-23. I expect a lot of passing on both sides this game, but this time around key DEF player Winfield will be out for the Vikings. This will have a big impact, and I expect QB Rodgers to take advantage. I think fans overall will be very negative vs. Favre playing, and it might jilt him a little. He's said himself he's an emotional player. He won't get good vibes on Sunday. I expect some bad passes/plays for him. Key factor for Packers is keeping their QB safe. Dangerous game IMO, I prob. should've bet less, but I still have confidence in GB.
16.3-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: (A) Broncos +9; (B) 49ers +19; (C) Cardinals -4. I think Broncos will at least keep the game close, and now I lean towards them. Slight showers also expected which is good for a low-scoring game, and low-scoring games favor the underdogs. All good signs. Cards game I'm also confident. 49ers game would worry me most, as the Colts are dangerous to bet against. However, +19 is a big edge, as Indy would have to cover by 20. Even if they get out in front, they might just control the clock and keep it under 20, or alternatively might allow some garbage play like Seattle did when COlts dominated 34-17.
17. 4-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: (A) Dolphins/Jets OVER 34 1/2; (B) Cowboys -4; (C) Cardinals -4; (D) Saints 4 1/2.
18. 10-TEAM PARLAY $143.93:
- Broncos +3
- Texans -3 1/2
- 49ers +13
- Dolphins +3 1/2
- Dolphins/Jets OVER 40 1/2
-Lions -4
- Cowboys -10
- Vikings/Packers OVER 47
- Cardinals -10
- Saints -10 1/2
(Pays $99,998.64)
19. 10-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: Same as above.
GL EVERYONE.
1. Texans -3 1/2 (at -105) LOCK of the Week $475: Bills are working better as a team, and this game is their home field. Also have good D ranking, particularly against the pass. However, their numbers are skewed - they have hit a lot of poor teams with poor offense. Texans have one of the best QBs right now in Shaub. Also, Bills' passing D is skewed bc most teams opt to run against the Bills, who are allowing like 4.6YPC. Who wouldn't run here?
2. Texans/Bills OVER 41 1/2 (at -110) $175: I'm more wary of Over/Under picks, but this one I like. I see projected score of 30-23 for the Texans. Crazy high projection right? Texans will run over the Bills D. We'll see if I'm right...
3. 49ers +13 (at -105) $375: Game worries me honestly. Never a good thing to bet against P. Manning and the Colts, who have been crushing their opponents for 4 weeks straight. Also, I picked this game up when Reggie Wayne, their best receiver, was looking unlikely to play this week in hopes it would impact the Colts offense. Manning's ability to spread the ball is key, and I think they'll win the game. However, Colts numbers are skewed. The last 3 teams they thumped were subpar teams (Rams, Titans and a beat-up Seattle team). Prior to that they thumped the Cardinals which was impressive, but that was a combo of good Colts play mixed with very bad Cardinals plays/turnovers. Last week Colts were -14 vs. Rams, and easily covered. But -13 vs. 49ers? This will be harder. 49ers also switched QBs which I think is good, they also have a developing WR in Crabtree, and Gore is back to run the ball. Coaching in San Fran is also much improved this year. 49ers will try to upset, but I think they will keep this within 10. Key is whether they get blown out early.
4. Colts/49ers OVER 45 (at -105) $150: I like that this was -105 instead of -110, for one. Also, I think one of 2 things will happen. Either the 49ers will make things happen and both teams will score 23+ points, OR the Colts will blowout the 49ers like the Falcons did, and cover the spread nearly on their own. If thats the case, 49ers will go to the passing game, trying to pick up points faster, and either succeeding, or comitting crucial turnovers. I guess you an call this a partial "hedge" bet in case the 49ers don't keep the game close. But I like the pick.
5. Cowboys -10 (at -105) $525: If I had to do it again I might make this a no-play as I'm less confident. Dallas WILL win. Its whether they cover -10. Seattle has been so hot and cold this year it makes them dangerous, but the only 2 teams they've thumped (both times they shutout their Opponents), were terrible teams (Rams/Jags). When they hit good teams they've been thumped themselves. Here I think Dallas is getting into a grove, and the "Jerry's world" edge I give 4 points edge to Dallas on that alone. Can Dallas cover with 1 TD in addition to that? I think so, but again this game is tricky. Lots of smart cappers are picking both sides. Tread this one with caution. I project 33-23 Final Score.
6. Titans -3 (at -105) $125: I guess it's a combo here; I don't have much respect for the Jags, and I think the Titans playing at home after a bye week will give them the edge. Also, 1 key DEF player for Jags is out this week, AND Vince Young is now starting QB. I think they needed this change, but his performance is key. Enough factors overall to pick the Titans. They NEED this win to snap their streak.
7. Jags/Titans OVER 45 (at -105) $300: Jags D is unimpressive. Hell they won vs. Rams 23-20. The RAMS. Titans coming off a bye week with QB switch will be good. Last time these 2 teams met it was high scoring, I expect the same again.
8. Cardinals -10 (at -110) $550: I picked Cards ML last week vs. Giants. This week I think they'll handily win, 34-17. Panthers QB has 5 TDs and a league-leading 13 interceptions, I expect more interceptions. Plus, Panther's will need to run well to keep this game close, but Cards are #1 run D so I don't see it happening. Too many weapons for Cardinals and the Panthers won't be able to keep up. Top 5 favorite pick this week.
9. Cardinals ML (at -550) $1000: Yeah. Cardinals won't lose. Free money!!!
10. Saints -10 (at -110) $550: They play at home vs. Atlanta. Coming off a huge comeback win last week at Miami, I think they'll try to put this one away fast. I see a high scoring game on NO side, and Falcons won't be able to keep up. Saints are 7-0 for a reason, they have an INSANE offense. Hell, they average 40 PPG. THAT is crazy. I do expect Turner to be running the ball a lot for ATL, as I think their strategy might be to control the clock/keep Saints offense off the field. It won't be enough. Projected score: 37-20.
11. Dolphins/Jets OVER 40 1/2 (-110) $550: Jets/Dolphins game I expect to be close, and it's pretty much a no play for me. HOWEVER, I do expect it to be high-scoring. I think people need to get off the bandwagon of "Dolphins won't allow many points." Look, they've got a struggling 2ndary with 2 rookie CBs playing this game. Jets also lost a Pro Bowl DEF player for the week, and last time they met the Dolphins won 31-27. Dolphins running game is SOLID, and so is the Jets (300+ YPG rushing in both of the last 2 games). This will be a run game, no doubt, but I see it as high scoring. Jets will probably mix passing game as well, so Sanchez can take advantage of weak coverage. The only negative factor is cloudy projections tomorrow. It's not bad enough to influence this game. This is a top 5 pick this week.
12.Lions -4 (at -105) $550: No doubt this is the Rams' best chance of breaking their 17-game losing streak. If they weren't such a terrible team, maybe they could pull it off. But too many factors against them. Lions are hungry too (sounds funny, but it's true). They're also coming off a bye week, and QB Stafford/WR Johnson have started practicing again after injuries. I'm pretty sure at least ONE of these guys will play tomorrow, and like it or not the Lions' offens is stronger than the Rams. Coming off a bye week as well, they've no doubtbeen prepping for this game. They NEED this win too.
13. Rams/Lions UNDER 43 1/2 (-110) $150: Both teams are bad, no doubt. They both need a win, and for the same reason. I like this under a lot, and actually am regretting not putting more on this under. I expect these teams to play their hearts out, and in so doing will be trying their damndest to prevent any scores. Neither is known for their offense, or defense. In light of this, I think their D will come through, and I project a low-scoring total.
14. Giants/Eagles UNDER 44 (-105) $200: Big Rivalry game at Philly. Both teams have solid defenses. Eagles will be without key RB Westbrook (concussion) in the lineup, and lots of plays go through him. Many of the Eagles' scores have been on big plays, and I don't see them making many big plays vs. the Giants. The Giants, coming off a big loss to the Cardinals, will look to rebound with a strong defense. Also, I expect them to play much more conservatively considering last week they had several turnovers. Thus, I think Manning will have a decent/safe day vs. the Eagles, and the Giants will rely on D to win this game.
15. Packers -3 (-110) $575: Last time Vikings had homefield and won 30-23. I expect a lot of passing on both sides this game, but this time around key DEF player Winfield will be out for the Vikings. This will have a big impact, and I expect QB Rodgers to take advantage. I think fans overall will be very negative vs. Favre playing, and it might jilt him a little. He's said himself he's an emotional player. He won't get good vibes on Sunday. I expect some bad passes/plays for him. Key factor for Packers is keeping their QB safe. Dangerous game IMO, I prob. should've bet less, but I still have confidence in GB.
16.3-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: (A) Broncos +9; (B) 49ers +19; (C) Cardinals -4. I think Broncos will at least keep the game close, and now I lean towards them. Slight showers also expected which is good for a low-scoring game, and low-scoring games favor the underdogs. All good signs. Cards game I'm also confident. 49ers game would worry me most, as the Colts are dangerous to bet against. However, +19 is a big edge, as Indy would have to cover by 20. Even if they get out in front, they might just control the clock and keep it under 20, or alternatively might allow some garbage play like Seattle did when COlts dominated 34-17.
17. 4-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: (A) Dolphins/Jets OVER 34 1/2; (B) Cowboys -4; (C) Cardinals -4; (D) Saints 4 1/2.
18. 10-TEAM PARLAY $143.93:
- Broncos +3
- Texans -3 1/2
- 49ers +13
- Dolphins +3 1/2
- Dolphins/Jets OVER 40 1/2
-Lions -4
- Cowboys -10
- Vikings/Packers OVER 47
- Cardinals -10
- Saints -10 1/2
(Pays $99,998.64)
19. 10-TEAM TEASER (Teased 6 points) $500: Same as above.
GL EVERYONE.