Thoughts on how this farmer may play the SOYBEAN market?

[Fishhead]

Why own any physical harvested soybeans? Basis is tight, the deferred soys on the CBOT are flat to at an inverse for March and beyond.

75% of my soybeans will soon be in on farm storage under a specialty contract with terms that give a great chance to price for Jan at a grand basis vs Jan CBOT. 25% of my soybeans go to commercial storage where the basis is unusually tight for harvest or Jan at CBOT-17.
80% harvested. 20% yet to go.

Why should we own physical rather than just cashing in- or if we think markets will be higher- sell and speculate by owning the soys on paper????

[dmtrader]

I thought the point was for farmers to lock in their gains early in the season so they would not be hit so hard at harvest time when soybeans (or wheat, pork bellies, whatever) where plentiful and the prices were under pressure.

Once you start speculating, it is a whole different ball game. I've won and lost a lot on the grains over the years. What I've learned, with every futures contract, is expect the unexpected.

[Fishhead]

I thought the point was for farmers to lock in their gains early in the season so they would not be hit so hard at harvest time when soybeans (or wheat, pork bellies, whatever) where plentiful and the prices were under pressure.

Once you start speculating, it is a whole different ball game. I've won and lost a lot on the grains over the years. What I've learned, with every futures contract, is expect the unexpected.

A few days ago I was feeling like a king...........now starting to feel like a peasant.

Hope things reverse soon in the soybean market.

[Deuce]

Fishead,


The wet weather has delayed harvesting. Unreal.

[Fishhead]

A few days ago I was feeling like a king...........now starting to feel like a peasant.

Hope things reverse soon in the soybean market.

SOYBEANS up 46% in the past 12 months!