Durant factor making NBA teams TRY to lose?

[Bill Dozer]

The bottom feeders are making a competition out of losing. How many ways can we tank? Have there ever been this many injuries on the lottery-bound teams? Players benching starters to "teach them a lesson?" Atlanta just suspended Smith for swearing.

Those -7s and -9s aren't looking so bad. The rest of the league is fighting for their play off lives.

[ShamsWoof10]

Solid and interesting points Bill... That is odd to suspend a player for swearing as the whole league would be gone if that was legit... Keep the good posts coming...

[goldengoat]

i looked at boston's injury report a couple days ago and half the team including paul pierce was on it

all the youngsters are playing

[RickySteve]

a) Durant is overrated.

b) It's reflected in the line.

[LargeMouthBass]

Shouldn't the thread be titled "Oden factor making NBA teams TRY to lose?" Boston and Atlanta can use a player like Oden more than Durant. Both teams have scorers but no inside presence. Some analysts say Oden can't succeed in the next level but if he goes to Boston or Atlanta, he'll make an impact for sure in his rookie year.

[tevari]

TBH, i dont see that much potential in Oden, as far as teams tanking...it's been done for years and it will never change as long as theres a lottery system in place.

[Bill Dozer]

a) Durant is overrated.

Best player to come along in years IMO. This may be the best overall draft since the 80s.

b) It's reflected in the line.

You could say that about everything from weather to injuries...The Mavs are good and it's in the line. Most of these lines are set on bettor perception.

[Bill Dozer]

Shouldn't the thread be titled "Oden factor making NBA teams TRY to lose?" Boston and Atlanta can use a player like Oden more than Durant. Both teams have scorers but no inside presence. Some analysts say Oden can't succeed in the next level but if he goes to Boston or Atlanta, he'll make an impact for sure in his rookie year.

I think the difference this year is there are a bunch of impact players and not just one prize.

The NBA should up the draft age another year.

[LargeMouthBass]

I think the difference this year is there are a bunch of impact players and not just one prize.

The NBA should up the draft age another year.

That's unrealistic and somewhat unfair. If you had the talent, wouldn't you get out as soon as millions were offered to you? Most of these kids come from poor families and they have a whole crew to take care of ASAP. Since injuries become a big factor in professional sports, you gotta make your money when you are healthy. Besides, why is it that basketball is restricted but not tennis, golf, or soccer. Although, March Madness would be more exciting than ever or not, what athletes go to college for education nowadays anyway?

[RickySteve]

Best player to come along in years IMO. This may be the best overall draft since the 80s.

He's a good player, no doubt.

"Best player to come along in years"? That's Texas yokel talk.

You could say that about everything from weather to injuries...The Mavs are good and it's in the line. Most of these lines are set on bettor perception.

Bet against lottery teams in the last month. You have it all figured out. With your imminent fortune you'll be able to stop pimping crooks.

[goldengoat]

bill dozer i will bet you oden gets picked before durant no matter who gets the pick as long as both players come out

[Bill Dozer]

That's unrealistic and somewhat unfair. If you had the talent, wouldn't you get out as soon as millions were offered to you? Most of these kids come from poor families and they have a whole crew to take care of ASAP. Since injuries become a big factor in professional sports, you gotta make your money when you are healthy. Besides, why is it that basketball is restricted but not tennis, golf, or soccer. Although, March Madness would be more exciting than ever or not, what athletes go to college for education nowadays anyway?

I agree. I would leave too as soon as it is an option... Too much at risk. I also think 20 yr olds who are allowed to go to war should be able to have a beer.

But, the NBA is a private entity and benefits from not having kids in the league without fundamentals and can focus on the long term product and what's good for the game. Kids will imitate what they see in the NBA and a lot of it is disrespectful players who don't get the least bit embarrassed when someone beats them to the hoop. Now HS kids like OJ Mayo are screaming in the crowd because the can dunk.

The league tried to stop it with Technical fouls for hanging on the rim, stare downs, and yelling..all things HOF players did because they could back it up.

[Bill Dozer]

He's a good player, no doubt.

"Best player to come along in years"? That's Texas yokel talk.



Bet against lottery teams in the last month. You have it all figured out. With your imminent fortune you'll be able to stop pimping crooks.

Poor argument and one-liner insults from Team RS...didn't see it coming.

[Bill Dozer]

bill dozer i will bet you oden gets picked before durant no matter who gets the pick as long as both players come out

I actually think Oden will get picked first unless the Celts get the first pick. Oden might have been #2 going into the final.

[Razz]

There's a better chance of Durant going 3rd than 1st, though both are about 1 in 1,000.

[bigboydan]

Any team out there that takes Durant over Oden deserves to be fired. Oden's numbers are comparable to Duncan during his freshman year, and compared to Patric Ewing in many aspects of the game.

Oden is a true marquee center and there extremely hard to come by in the NBA in this day and age IMO

[jjgold]

Oden's size and defensive presence is what will make him a force in the nba.

Durant cant be any better than guys like Garnett, TMAC, Anthony, Carter, Bosh .......all great players but proven losers so far in their careers. Guys that score 23 a game and 11 boards is great but does not mean getting to nba finals .

[The HG]

I actually find it very hard to believe, almost impossible, in fact, that any overt "tanking", intentional and planned losing, happens in any way in the NBA, even an unspoken way. Which is not to say that "tanking", in the sense of a stark and unexpected ebb of on-court execution not normally seen at other times of the year, caused by a lack of a will to win or play well, doesn't on occasion happen. But I think it happens to players on a psychological and subconscious level, for a variety of reasons, and to management and coaching for legitimate strategic reasons with an eye toward goals other than trying to compete well in the game being played that day, and I don't think draft position is ever a real concern.

For instance, resting stars and playing young or second-string players more at the end, is not done to try to lose games, but to protect stars from injury and for evaluation and experience purposes for the young players. And there's no doubt that players and teams can easily lose their focus and drive to win at the end of the season, for various reasons as well. But they also can, as often as not, GAIN a drive to do well at the end of the season.

The reason I don't think draft position ever has much to do with anything is because winning basketball, as we have seen time and time again, has much more to do with chemistry, coaching, and team cohesion than it has to do with raw talent. Which is not to say, of course, that landing a top player in the draft can't immediately help a team a lot, because in some cases of course it will. But basketball is so much more than putting together 5 guys with as much talent as possible. As opposed to, say, baseball, where each person is mostly only responsible for himself. Meaning, the performance of any one player in basketball is intimately connected with the performance of all the other players on the court. As opposed to baseball, where a hitter is influenced relatively little by who else is on his team. Sure, in some ways he can be, like if he has strong hitters hitting behind him, he will be more likely to see more good pitches to hit, as an example. But compared to basketball, in baseball each player is much much more of an island unto himself. And basketball people know that of course.

Of course, there is also the marketing aspect; a marquee rookie name can be promoted and translated into revenue. But is there really a huge difference between the marketability of Oden and Durant, at this point? Or even Joakim Noah? Sure it's great to get someone like Shaq or Lebron in a draft, for marketing purposes. But I don't see any one standout in that regard in this draft.

And of course, you can't just "throw" one game, it would have to practically be an April-long plan, to make any difference, since the other lottery-bound teams would presumably be losing most of their games anyway. So would a team consciously orchestrate a month-long plan to lose a few more games than they normally would, for the purpose of - what? Gaining a handful of percentage points of likelihood of getting a player who will probably help them only marginally more than the player they would have gotten if they had just played out the season? The chances of getting the number one pick in the lottery for the teams are as follows, with "1" being the team with the worst record:

1. 250 combinations, 25% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

So I guess it might be nice for a team if they could somehow twist their way from the 5 spot to the 3 spot, or from the 3 spot to the 1 spot. But remember of course, that the teams they are trying to out-lose are also going to be losing most of their games, even if they aren't tanking themselves, because they are bad teams. So would seasoned basketball executives cook up and hatch a plan to intentionally lose games, to gain this little edge on getting a prize that would confer only a small benefit in the short run, and a negligible benefit in the long run? No way.

They would, however, of course not care if the team wins at the end, and that can have a big effect. Teams definitely do erratic things, like suspending a player for cursing, which they never would have done earlier on. Or they will much more easily shut down an injury-plagued player than they would earlier on. But that's just because they don't care about winning anymore, which is very very different from trying to lose.

The players on the court, of course, have different interests. For them, they are still playing for stats, and for their reputations and contracts. For the most part, they don't care who the team drafts the next year.

So yes, perhaps on the last day or two, if there are 2 or 3 teams tied for a draft position, yes, perhaps a team might actually tell its players "don't go all out in this one" with a wink and a nod. But I don't think you'd ever see that until game 80 at the earliest.

[knicknut]

Players benching starters to "teach them a lesson?" Atlanta just suspended Smith for swearing.

You're kidding me.

I'm in the finals of a H2H $$$ fantasy league, and Smith's been one of my best players the past few weeks...

Maybe it doesn't count for them but it counts for some of us

[Bill Dozer]

Oden's size and defensive presence is what will make him a force in the nba.

Durant cant be any better than guys like Garnett, TMAC, Anthony, Carter, Bosh .......all great players but proven losers so far in their careers. Guys that score 23 a game and 11 boards is great but does not mean getting to nba finals .

I would trade anyone of those guys now for the #2 pick. Garnett (and maybe Bosh) is the only guy who brings it every night and he's out of his prime. Durant could be TMAC without the head problems.

[Bill Dozer]

You're kidding me.

I'm in the finals of a H2H $$$ fantasy league, and Smith's been one of my best players the past few weeks...

Maybe it doesn't count for them but it counts for some of us

Sorry to hear that KN. They robbed you and any fans they had left in Atlanta. Actually the whole starting 5 is on vacation I believe.

[jjgold]

Can Durant even be as good as Vince Carter? I highly doubt it, how about Odem of the Lakers? I doubt it.

How much better can he be than an unstoppbable Anthony? He is good and will be an all star but again there are many Durants in the NBA that have little effect to make their teams big time.

[Bill Dozer]

I actually find it very hard to believe, almost impossible, in fact, that any overt "tanking", intentional and planned losing, happens in any way in the NBA, even an unspoken way.

Tanking has been happening for years. The Cavs did it the year before Lebron. This year has been one of the worst. It's not happening from the player's end but without a draft these coaches would still be competitive putting their best guys on the floor. They still have resumes to worry about and tickets to sell.

Projected Draft Order (games played through 4/4)
PK TEAM

1. Memphis Lost 6
03/26/2007 Damon Stoudamire PG Knee Out Out indefinitely
11/25/06 Kyle Lowry PG Wrist IL I-L. Likely to miss most of the season
04/09/07 Rudy Gay SG Ankle Questionable Questionable for April 10 vs. Sacramento
03/26/07 Mike Miller SF Knee Out Out indefinitely
03/27/07 Lawrence Roberts PF Knee Out Out indefinitely
02/28/07 Brian Cardinal PF Knee Out Out for the season

2. Boston Lost 4
04/07/07 Al Jefferson PF Knee Out Out until at least April 11 vs. Philadelphia
04/05/07 Paul Pierce SG Elbow Out Out until at least April 10 at Atlanta
04/08/07 Delonte West SG Ankle Doubtful Doubtful for April 10 at Atlanta
03/27/07 Michael Olowokandi C Foot IL I-L. Out for the season
03/29/07 Brian Scalabrine PF Hamstring Out Likely out for the season
02/28/07 Wally Szczerbiak SF Ankle Out Out for the remainder of the season
01/11/07 Tony Allen SG Knee Out Out for the remainder of the season
01/29/07 Theo Ratliff C Back IL I-L. Out for the rest of the season

3. Milwaukee lost 10 of 11 (beat Boston)
03/25/2007 Andrew Bogut C Foot IL Out for the season
12/07/06 Bobby Simmons SF Heel IL I-L. Out for the season
04/10/07 Michael Redd SG Knee Out IR. Out for the season.
04/10/07 Brian Skinner PF Illness Questionable Questionable for April 11 vs. Indiana
03/22/07 Charlie Villanueva PF Shoulder IL Out for the season


4. Phoenix from Atlanta Draft history lost 8 of 10 (beat Bucks and Celtics)

This is funny. Atlanta only gets a pick if they select in the top 3. If they land at 4 they give their pick to the Suns. Those darn calf injuries!

04/03/07 Josh Childress SG Foot Out Out for the remainder of the season
04/02/07 Speedy Claxton PG Knee IL I-L. Out for the season
04/09/07 Zaza Pachulia C Ankle Questionable Questionable for April 10 vs. Boston
04/09/07 Josh Smith SF Suspension Suspend Out until April 14 at Cleveland
04/09/07 Salim Stoudamire SG Ankle Questionable Questionable for April 10 vs. Boston
03/08/07 Joe Johnson SG Calf Out Out indefinitely

5. Charlotte Won 6 of 8
04/09/07 Derek Anderson SG Knee Out Likely out for the season
04/08/07 Adam Morrison SG Knee Questionable Questionable for April 10 vs. Miami
03/31/07 Othella Harrington PF Knee Out Likely out for the season
03/29/07 Sean May F Knee IL I-L. Out for the season

6. Seattle lost 5 of 6
10/27/06 Robert Swift C Knee IL I-L. Out for the season
04/09/07 Ray Allen SG Ankle Out Out for the season. Expected to be ready for training camp.
04/09/07 Danny Fortson C Tooth Questionable Questionable for April 9 vs. Houston
04/07/07 Luke Ridnour PG Ankle Out Out until at least April 9 vs. Houston
04/10/07 Earl Watson PG Ankle Questionable Questionable for April 11 at Phoenix

[bigboydan]

Tanking has been happening for years. The Cavs did it the year before Lebron.

You damn right that happen that year. In fact John Lucas made that quite clear it might happen too, because both Lucas and the team got fined by the NBA twice for talking to Lebron before that season even started.

[dave11486]

Any team out there that takes Durant over Oden deserves to be fired. Oden's numbers are comparable to Duncan during his freshman year, and compared to Patric Ewing in many aspects of the game.

Oden is a true marquee center and there extremely hard to come by in the NBA in this day and age IMO

For sure. We know Durant is a fantastic college player, but the NBA is a different game. Oden will be an impact in the NBA without question. Edge: Oden.

[jjgold]

Durant will get pushed around in the nba, not that strong yet.

Tough down on the blocks unless your very strong, outside he is fine.

[Bill Dozer]

Bill Simmons thinks so...
Tanks for nothing, NBA

If ESPN ever creates a channel called ESPN Anti-Classic, I hope it launches with a telecast of April 4's stink bomb between Milwaukee and Boston. Ever seen opponents basically shave points at the same time? Well, it happened. Already playing without Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva, Milwaukee shelved Mo Williams ("sore knee") and Michael Redd ("sore knee") in a desperate bid to blow the game for lottery position. And it would have worked, but they sorely underestimated an always-say-die Celtics team missing Paul Pierce ("sore elbow") and Al Jefferson ("hog-tied to a radiator"). Milwaukee lost by winning; Boston won by losing; every paying customer lost, period.


AP Photo
When the goin' gets tough ... Pierce gets to the bench.

It's a phenomenon unique to the NBA. With 30 teams and only a handful of superstar prospects per decade, landing Greg Oden or Kevin Durant really is like winning the lottery. You'd be foolish if you didn't try to swing the odds in your favor, even if that means exaggerating injuries, giving crunch-time minutes to scrubs and disgracing the integrity of the game. When Charlotte's tanking plans were recently dashed by 12th man Walter Herrmann -- who improbably ignited a few upset wins -- I half expected them to hire Shane Stant to attack Herrmann after a practice, followed by Walter rolling around like Nancy Kerrigan, screaming, "Why? Why???"

Two months ago in this space, when I introduced the concept of "fantanking" and rooted for an Oden-inspired Celtics collapse, I swear, my heart was in the right place. For the greater good, and under the current rules, the Celtics needed to lose and keep losing. And that's what happened. At the same time, I can't imagine the NBA feels good about a system that encourages fans to turn on their own teams. Remember, the league created the lottery in 1985 to prevent tanking. After six years of tinkering, it settled on a system of weighted Ping-Pong balls, until Orlando landed back-to-back No. 1 picks (defying 66-1 odds the second year). Panicking, the league significantly increased the odds that bad teams would finish in the top three, inadvertently leaving the door open for tanking again.

In retrospect, though, what's worse: Tankapalooza 2007 or a young team winning two straight lotteries? Did it negatively impact TV ratings, attendance or general fan interest to have a suddenly stacked Magic team? Were you turning off your TV in the mid-'90s because Shaq and Penny were on? The NBA's crucial mistake was forgetting that it's better to have more quality teams, even at the expense of a few extra doormats. This isn't the NFL; parity can't work. Remember the late '70s and the deadly stretch of seasons after the NBA/ABA merger? Everyone thinks play suffered because of rampant coke use and the first wave of overpaid/underachieving superstars, which was partially true. The bigger problem? The merger loaded every team's roster to the degree that nobody could stand out. From 1977 through 1979, only six teams won more than 50 games, only six won fewer than 30, and nobody won more than 58 or fewer than 22. What's fun about that?

On the flip side, when the Lakers, Celtics, Sixers and Pistons were battling for control of the 1980s, did anyone care that the Clips, Cavaliers, Warriors and Kings were dreadful? Was it a coincidence that the NBA peaked from 1987 to 1993, with a lopsided league of quality teams and crummy teams? Call it the 600/400 Rule: More teams finishing above .600 (50 wins or more) and under .400 (50 losses or more) makes for a more entertaining league. During the glorious '88 season, my choice for the greatest ever, there were eight plus-.600 teams and six sub-.400 teams in a 23-team league.

During another superb stretch, from 1991 to 1993, there were 24 plus-.600 teams and 24 sub-.400 teams (two-thirds of the league). Again, that's a good thing. We want to watch good teams with star players. The more the merrier, right? Just look at this lackluster 2007 season, when we're saddled with six plus-.600 teams, five sub-.400 teams and 19 in-the-middle teams. Sure, it's more difficult to improve because of the salary cap and luxury tax, and it's nearly impossible to snooker other GMs (even Isiah has wised up). But I blame the lottery for foisting modified parity on us. Ever since Orlando went back-to-back, top picks have gone to lousy teams every spring, creating a vicious circle in which the lottery replenishes weak teams with blue-chippers who aren't ready to carry weak teams. In the past 14 years, only one No. 1 pick made his team instantly competitive: Tim Duncan, who joined a contender that had slipped only because of injuries. Looking back, was it bad that Duncan and David Robinson played together? Was the NBA's competitive spirit compromised? Of course not.

And that's why the lottery sucks: Not only does it render the occasional Duncan/ Robinson pairing nearly impossible, not only does it reward poorly run clubs like the Hawks (103 games under .500 since the 1998-99 season), it encourages also-rans to bottom out once they suffer some bad luck because they know it's their best chance to eventually contend. So can't we admit that the lottery system has failed? Shouldn't the element of luck play a bigger role than it does?

Anyway, here's my solution:
1. Contract the league to 27 teams and dump Memphis, Charlotte and Atlanta, three cities that can't support NBA basketball and never could. Then we'll have a league-wide lottery to determine positioning for the dispersal draft of players from those three teams. (Note: We've already sedated Chad Ford just in case this happens.) And if a contender like Chicago happens to end up with Pau Gasol ... I think we'll manage.

2. Change the lottery back to that of the late '80s: one envelope per team, same odds for everybody, top three draft spots only. Boom! We've solved the tanking problem. If a half-decent team happens to land a franchise player, like the Wolves getting Oden and pairing him with KG ... I think we'll manage.

3. Shorten the regular season by four games, guarantee the top six seeds in each conference, then have a double-elimination tourney for the seventh and eighth seeds between the remaining 15 teams. I suggest this for five reasons. First, it would be entertaining as hell. In fact, that's what we'll call it: the Entertaining-as-Hell Tournament. Second, I'm pretty sure we could get it sponsored. Third, the top 12 teams get a reward: two weeks of rest while the tournament plays out.

Fourth, a Cinderella squad could pull off some upsets, grab an eighth seed and win fans along the way. And fifth, with the Entertaining-as-Hell Tournament giving everyone a chance, no team could tank down the stretch without insulting paying customers beyond repair. That's the lamest thing about tanking: not that it's morally unsound, but that fans pay full price to see a depleted group of losers with dubious intentions. At a recent Bobcats-Celtics game, my father (a 34-year season ticket-holder) watched Boston toss away a double-digit lead while Pierce and Jefferson watched from the bench. To his right, a fan screamed at Doc Rivers, "You're doing the right thing!" To his left, another fan screamed that the collapse was "an absolute disgrace!" And as my father told me later, the disturbing thing was that both guys were right.

Bill Simmons is a columnist for Page 2 and ESPN The Magazine. His book "Now I Can Die In Peace" is available in paperback.

[JoshW]

I think either of these players will generate interest and sell tickets for a long time. If a guy is even borderline to play (a cold, sore muscle) it makes sense for teams in the running for last to sit them out.

[Razz]

A lot of teams are going to feel stupid if Oden decides to stay at OSU.