Dallas Cowboys in KC to face winless Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of six teams still winless as the NFL enters its fifth week of play. The Dallas Cowboys are not among the winless squads, but their 2-2 mark is no doubt disappointing to their fans and owner Jerry Jones. Marion Barber is expected to play for the 'Boys when Big D travels to KC on Sunday, and returning home to Dallas with anything less than a convincing win could be fatal to Wade Phillips.
It’s never a dull day in the NFL. We’ve got a perfect storm of trades, contract signings and injuries to deal with as we handicap Week 5 of the NFL season. Let’s get things rolling with the Dallas Cowboys, who will be down at least one important skill player when they make the perilous journey to Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday.
Dallas at Kansas City (+8.5, 42.5)
Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
The Cowboys don’t seem to have any problems beating up on the little guys. They’re 2-0 SU and ATS versus Tampa Bay and Carolina, but 0-2 SU and ATS versus Denver and the New York Giants. The Chiefs definitely qualify as “little guys” at 0-4 SU and ATS. They haven’t covered a game since Week 15 of last year. It’s hard to keep the Arrowhead mystique up when you’re not winning.
That hasn’t stopped bettors from lining up on the side of the Chiefs. Mid-week consensus reports showed 63 percent on Kansas City against the spread and 85 percent preferring the Chiefs at +300. It’s impossible to ignore the rush to judgment against Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who’s been called every name in the book for his decision-making in the two Dallas losses. But again, those losses happened to be against two of the best pass rushes in the league in the early season. Football Outsiders has the Giants ranked second in that department in terms of efficiency, followed by Denver at No. 5, with Kansas City in the bottom third at No. 23.
Romo might have a little more trouble than anticipated if WR Roy Williams (ribs) can’t play. He missed Thursday’s practice, but believes he will start Sunday. RB Marion Barber (quad) did practice and is expected to play, but No. 2 tailback Felix Jones (knee) is not likely to suit up against the Chiefs. His absence will be mitigated by Tashard Choice, the ex-Georgia Tech RB who has proved especially adept at catching passes in the flat.
The powerful Cowboys offense and the focus on Romo’s occasional gaffes has taken attention away from just how bad the Dallas defense is right now: No. 26 on the efficiency charts, and No. 27 against the pass. This is where Kansas City can capitalize, but QB Matt Cassel hasn’t blown anyone away since returning from his knee injury, which he may have aggravated during last week’s loss to the Giants. Cassel isn’t getting much help from his offensive line, either. It’s going to take a year or two for GM Scott Pioli and coach Todd Haley to build some talent around Cassel – if he can stay healthy.
Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3.5, 45.5)
Sunday, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
It might not be a surprise that the Chiefs are 0-4, but how about the Titans? They looked like solid fade candidates to me after their failure to improve during the offseason, and yet it hurts to see them winless at 1-3 ATS after making so much money off them last year at 12-4 ATS. There’s only so much magic coach Jeff Fisher can work when the small-market Titans keep cutting costs.
Tennessee’s problem this year is on defense, where Albert Haynesworth no longer patrols the defensive line and the Titans are ranked No. 30 overall against the pass. This is an obvious matchup problem against perennial Pro Bowl QB Peyton Manning. He’s up to his usual tricks with nine TD passes and just three interceptions, leading the NFL with a 114.5 passer rating. Manning pulled his team’s fat out of the fire in the first two weeks, but it’s been smooth sailing since then – Indianapolis is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the betting odds. And the public is nearly unanimous on the Colts both ATS and at –200 on the moneyline.
If you’re a Tennessee fan looking for a ray of hope, the Colts are only ranked No. 20 against the run, and the Titans are very much a running team with the 1-2 combination of Chris Johnson (6.3 yards per carry) and LenDale White (3.6 yards per carry). Just don’t read too much into Johnson’s numbers – he busted open a 91-yard rush against the Texans in Week 2. Indy’s run defense is bad, but not as bad as Houston’s at No. 22 overall.
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of six teams still winless as the NFL enters its fifth week of play. The Dallas Cowboys are not among the winless squads, but their 2-2 mark is no doubt disappointing to their fans and owner Jerry Jones. Marion Barber is expected to play for the 'Boys when Big D travels to KC on Sunday, and returning home to Dallas with anything less than a convincing win could be fatal to Wade Phillips.
It’s never a dull day in the NFL. We’ve got a perfect storm of trades, contract signings and injuries to deal with as we handicap Week 5 of the NFL season. Let’s get things rolling with the Dallas Cowboys, who will be down at least one important skill player when they make the perilous journey to Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday.
Dallas at Kansas City (+8.5, 42.5)
Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX
The Cowboys don’t seem to have any problems beating up on the little guys. They’re 2-0 SU and ATS versus Tampa Bay and Carolina, but 0-2 SU and ATS versus Denver and the New York Giants. The Chiefs definitely qualify as “little guys” at 0-4 SU and ATS. They haven’t covered a game since Week 15 of last year. It’s hard to keep the Arrowhead mystique up when you’re not winning.
That hasn’t stopped bettors from lining up on the side of the Chiefs. Mid-week consensus reports showed 63 percent on Kansas City against the spread and 85 percent preferring the Chiefs at +300. It’s impossible to ignore the rush to judgment against Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who’s been called every name in the book for his decision-making in the two Dallas losses. But again, those losses happened to be against two of the best pass rushes in the league in the early season. Football Outsiders has the Giants ranked second in that department in terms of efficiency, followed by Denver at No. 5, with Kansas City in the bottom third at No. 23.
Romo might have a little more trouble than anticipated if WR Roy Williams (ribs) can’t play. He missed Thursday’s practice, but believes he will start Sunday. RB Marion Barber (quad) did practice and is expected to play, but No. 2 tailback Felix Jones (knee) is not likely to suit up against the Chiefs. His absence will be mitigated by Tashard Choice, the ex-Georgia Tech RB who has proved especially adept at catching passes in the flat.
The powerful Cowboys offense and the focus on Romo’s occasional gaffes has taken attention away from just how bad the Dallas defense is right now: No. 26 on the efficiency charts, and No. 27 against the pass. This is where Kansas City can capitalize, but QB Matt Cassel hasn’t blown anyone away since returning from his knee injury, which he may have aggravated during last week’s loss to the Giants. Cassel isn’t getting much help from his offensive line, either. It’s going to take a year or two for GM Scott Pioli and coach Todd Haley to build some talent around Cassel – if he can stay healthy.
Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3.5, 45.5)
Sunday, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
It might not be a surprise that the Chiefs are 0-4, but how about the Titans? They looked like solid fade candidates to me after their failure to improve during the offseason, and yet it hurts to see them winless at 1-3 ATS after making so much money off them last year at 12-4 ATS. There’s only so much magic coach Jeff Fisher can work when the small-market Titans keep cutting costs.
Tennessee’s problem this year is on defense, where Albert Haynesworth no longer patrols the defensive line and the Titans are ranked No. 30 overall against the pass. This is an obvious matchup problem against perennial Pro Bowl QB Peyton Manning. He’s up to his usual tricks with nine TD passes and just three interceptions, leading the NFL with a 114.5 passer rating. Manning pulled his team’s fat out of the fire in the first two weeks, but it’s been smooth sailing since then – Indianapolis is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the betting odds. And the public is nearly unanimous on the Colts both ATS and at –200 on the moneyline.
If you’re a Tennessee fan looking for a ray of hope, the Colts are only ranked No. 20 against the run, and the Titans are very much a running team with the 1-2 combination of Chris Johnson (6.3 yards per carry) and LenDale White (3.6 yards per carry). Just don’t read too much into Johnson’s numbers – he busted open a 91-yard rush against the Texans in Week 2. Indy’s run defense is bad, but not as bad as Houston’s at No. 22 overall.