[busmu]

As I also said would happen, we now have the guy who has been a member since 2009, posts about 3 times a month, only frequents Doc's threads, and his last 27 posts have primarily been defending Doc's, to the point of quoting numbers right off the Doc's site.


I really feel honored that you have included me with your false analysis. I am not involved with Doc Sports in any manner. If anything calling me cheap would be more appropriate. I simply don't want to pay for something that is mostly free. Most of my posts are asking for a play and simply saying "thanks".

[Ilv2gambol]

"The will come the individual cappers. I eagerly await the variety of ways the shills will try to defend the deception."

While what you say may be true I don't think it's fair to say that anyone who defends someone is a shill. I am definitely not a shill. In fact I just learned what that word meant about a month or 2 ago LOL. Everything you are saying may be 100% true about the big plays. I guess the thing for me is I don't buy a one day package for a big play or any plays. I buy the season package. I think long term with BR management. I can see how the casual bettor will get screwed from the 1 day packages. I also understood that if you bought a one day package and it lost you would get another 1 day package for free until you got back in the black (at docs)? If this is so, then a person (hypothetically) will always make money (or be even) eventually if they buy a package? Or have I understood this totally wrong?

[Flyboys]

***with the whole outlaw situation coming up, happy as this makes us, it was throwing a wrench into the timetable. So adding this took some more time than expected, but definitely worthwhile. There were about 3-4 more topics I wanted to cover prior to posting capper analysis, but after this one, I plan on just one more before throwing up the combined orange/red during the tracking period for each capper. Then, I will begin posting an analysis of each capper. I'll do 1-2, post a general comment or two, another 1-2, etc... At that point we will address questions***


***let us remember when you see these shills pushback and defend Doc's tooth and nail just as they have to others...they are not debating with me about a service I am touting to replace Doc's!! I have no vested interest as far as personal gain if people wise up on this outfit...so ask yourselves whose information might be skewed because of an agenda to keep people coming to Doc's. Again, I forum rules prohibit links so look up the old blog dedicated to posting Indian Cowboy picks. It was shut down last September by the blog owner who then posted a copy of correspondence from Doc's sports, Doc, and IC threateneing a variety of legal actions essentially because their picks were being posted for free. I am not arguing the legality of it at all, and it was the blog owner's decision to not get messed up with it...but ask yourself, why do they let it go on here then? Because of the shills and marketing...just ask a guy like Kryptonite about shills***




****


The Outlaw Line


"Gambling isn't magic, it's mathematics". ---Robert Ferringo


When we last left off, it was time to look at this crazy weekend of huge plays Doc's has on tap...


Now the first thing I would say concerning Doc's is that if they were really more concerned about capping and not marketing, they would be decreasing picks, not loading up. If they were as concerned about finding winners as much finding customers this isn't the time to go big. . .This hasn't been a three-day or even a weeklong dry spell. Their horrendous run is going on a month and a firm looking out for their customers would be re-evaluating their own in-house numbers, not pitching promotions...After all, as RF said, it's all about math...as anyone who has really been following, particularly these orange plays, there have been a lot of close wins (a single close loss) along with SEVERAL big plays that lost by over 15, including a few by over 20...and even if they still REALLY believed in their overall system, they would be trying to figure out what did go wrong, and that doesn't mean releasing a series of "Game Of" plays.


On the contrary, they are now telling us TWO, THREE. FOUR days in advance that they will have red plays...have they shown historically that they can successfully do this? The last time they did that was the SPS blazing red LOSER from Wednesday, announced on Sunday. That tells me their priorities aren't fixing what is broke to help prevent your money from going out...but instead keeping the pipeline of your money coming in.


...so this brings me to the Outlaw line...this is a long explanation, and I didn't intend to put it here, but when I was informed yesterday afternoon about this wonderful special that Doc's has, I found it too good to be true. Not too good to be true because it is impossible, but too good be true in that it pretty much slams the door on this as a marketing outfit more than a sports advisory firm. The key to being able to tout early such plays is having a good outlaw line and having good in-house numbers. Outlaw lines can come from in house, can be purchased, or can be received if an individual or group has a contact.


Now listen, every person looking to become a real sports investor (not talking casual weekend gambler) should toy with making their own line and then compare it to the released line. Indeed, we all do not have time for doing this--especially in basketball season with so many plays--and cappers will market that they are "full-time, twelve-hours-a-day, professionals" able to do the dirty work for us, utilize their connections, and produce winners. This is a very reasonable argument, but of course the key would be finding a trustworthy source. With a job I love, I don't have time to do it all, which is one reason like-minded individuals will form a group and divvy up the work. Certain individuals might specialize in certain sports, and some may be simply capital investors. While not common, these arrangements are also not rare.


That said there are additional techniques that are opened up to individuals or groups that have a fairly large base of capital. Don't think simply bankroll, think money to invest on information that helps one succeed.


As far as being able to determine early big plays, one of the most important tools for developing a sharp "in-house" number is line movement data. I am not talking about going to a variety of websites that show movements in various Vegas books, all quite delayed (I do strongly recommend novices examining line movements, however). I am not talking "line movement services" offered for sale by cappers...I am not talking about express line services, which are actually quite good for someone with some experience, providing they have a decent starting stake and can comprehend why one line may not move at all with significant action when another might move with much less.


What we are talking about is the real-time odds and feed that casinos use. These run into the thousands. Whether legitimate cappers or marketers, any major players in the capping game will have this, and I am sure Doc's does. Today, individuals (or groups) with enough capital can purchase these services themselves with the added benefit that updates and alerts can come right to the iPhone. Understanding line movements, and knowing when to strike is a huge advantage.


All of that is necessary background to the "outlaw line" which is the basis for a company like Doc's actually being able say that they have winners pegged for lines that haven't been released. An outlaw line is essentially the likely line that will be released as the "overnight line"and the theory behind what Doc's is doing is definitely viable. Bet that statement supporting the legitimacy of Doc's picking a blazing red that is 100+ games from now wasn't expected from me from the shills...


In rare cases, when Vegas has an interest in seeing where money might go, some individuals are allowed to bet into an Outlaw line a little early, but the great majority who have these obtain access to such lines will use them to bet the overnight line before it moves.


For this to work independently, a capper must have good numbers and a decent sized staff as it takes time. After all, the cappers themselves are presumably finding their in-house number. Many services (or individuals) are unable to do this and they hire it out. There are a number of locations, Don Best being the most well known, that offers this service. Essentially you can pay for a team that usually consists of a former oddsmaker and the team he assembles to calculate the Outlaw line for you. The bigger the resume, the costlier the purchase price. Keith Glantz--oddsmaker, linesmaker, capper--operates independently and his team provides early and overnight services to a number of casinos...and individuals that can afford a king's ransom. Some groups over time have graduated from purchasing outlaw lines from such services and have a contact at a single casino or two.


Now, I do not know for sure if Doc's works their own outlaw line, or if they contract out. I would think it is more likely that they contract out, however some of there future games they are advertising are getting a bit far out for most outlaw line services as often times they are 1.5-2 days in advance (I.e outlaw lines avail Sun night or Mon AM ahead of a Tuesday overnight line for Wednesday games) but let's give them the benefit of the doubt. Certainly I would not have much confidence an in-house outlaw line given what I have seen...but for arguments sake, I will assume they have a perfect outlaw line.


To make this as simple as possible, an outlaw line--which eventually becomes the overnight line and transforms into the actual fluid line--is determined based on a ton of factors. This list is far from comprehensive, but will take in all the regular factors the public or a novice might think go into a line (injuries, revenge, strength of home court/field, what Sheridan's power rankings predict, what the ESPN talking heads are saying), as well as factors a more knowledgable individual might use (look ahead/letdown and emotional variables, previous ATS records, and other statistical trends similar to what a company like StatFox uses).


There are other factors, of course...talking about public money here is beyond what we need to do, but suffice it to say that Vegas knows as well as the capping services where public money is expected and sets the line accordingly...so the handicapping philosophy of simply fading public money that some services push is in and of itself is far from foolproof. During an event such as March Madness (or the Bowl) with lots of public money, or even during the regular season if a public favorite like Notre Dame or Michigan is facing off against a lesser school, the books account for this.


So we have an early /outlaw line. We have Doc's using that outlaw line touting big plays days in advance. For purposes of this discussion we agree it the outlaw line has is perfect... So how does Doc's know these winners are coming? Simple. They use their in-house numbers, compare that to the outlaw line, and see which games they might be able to get extra points on. In theory, Doc's has found some great spots and he is touting these sure-fire winners.


In-house numbers are derived in many ways, and any independent betting consortium/ syndicate or handicapping marketing service will derive them. A major part of in-house numbers includes using the trends noted based on amounts/size of bets and the real-time odds changes they produce. They also track why public money moves lines in one case and not another, giving an indication of how comfortable a book is that they are on the right side...and allowing for predictions to made in the future about what lines are soft and what lines are sharp. Easy, right?


Problem is, given the very poor recent run, there are clearly some problems with their numbers...after all, even though we have offered conclusive proof that many of these orange/red are really blue/green, Doc's still doesn't want to lose the blue/green! They are losing whatever proprietary data the "advisory board" is sharing clearly has some flaws. Almost half of their "big" winners are by 5 points or less. Almost half of their "big" losers are by double digits!!


This SCREAMS the in-house numbers are off! To confidently bet plays marketed off the outlaw line, you better have razor sharp in-house numbers!


Forget about the well-below 50% recent big play record. Since my tracking began, they are 0-2 on blazing red "outlaw plays"


My recommendation is to stay away.

[Flyboys]

"The will come the individual cappers. I eagerly await the variety of ways the shills will try to defend the deception."

While what you say may be true I don't think it's fair to say that anyone who defends someone is a shill. I am definitely not a shill. In fact I just learned what that word meant about a month or 2 ago LOL. Everything you are saying may be 100% true about the big plays. I guess the thing for me is I don't buy a one day package for a big play or any plays. I buy the season package. I think long term with BR management. I can see how the casual bettor will get screwed from the 1 day packages. I also understood that if you bought a one day package and it lost you would get another 1 day package for free until you got back in the black (at docs)? If this is so, then a person (hypothetically) will always make money (or be even) eventually if they buy a package? Or have I understood this totally wrong?

I had promised not to respond to anyone but when I saw the post above yours when I just posted, I had to comment.

I don't know if you are or are not. It doesn't necessarily matter. Hopefully you are winning games. The reason I am unsure is that I have previously noted some "experienced" sounding posts, and even make some "long-term" statements here which newbies don't necessarily understand... then add stuff to a post like this that sounds like it came from either their marketing department or from a total newbie.

Free picks until you win?
1) every capper has some "if you lose you get the rest of my nfl/NBA/MLB free" garbage?
2) the big plays are not part of such a package. see Alta's posts showing the doc's ad... You have to buy these extra! So, you can have the regular service with the guarantee...and then get the opportunity to add on plays like this. Marketing!
3) it is not about just the cost of service and getting the next day free, it is about actually winning the selection
4) the longer the track time, the more statistically significant, true. So you better make sure the long term claims are true if you are using that as part of your gauge.

However you bet, I wish you winners.

[BigDeem5]

Is this fukin idiot just posting quotes?

Fukkin saloon?

[Flyboys]

As I also said would happen, we now have the guy who has been a member since 2009, posts about 3 times a month, only frequents Doc's threads, and his last 27 posts have primarily been defending Doc's, to the point of quoting numbers right off the Doc's site.


I really feel honored that you have included me with your false analysis. I am not involved with Doc Sports in any manner. If anything calling me cheap would be more appropriate. I simply don't want to pay for something that is mostly free. Most of my posts are asking for a play and simply saying "thanks".

i don't know what to say to this...someone who quotes the exact profit figure from Doc's website down to the exact dollar but talks about false analysis. It was not me, it was raiders who posted the -22/-30u figures in mid-January, from season start, before the slide. So, from your other post in NBA thread, I agree about a full season. I also made it pretty clear from the math if someone can be shown to be 40-50% on orange and red plays, the winning percentage necessary to even break even on blue and green plays would be close to impossible...let alone the win percentage to get to +100u

Cheap is not the proper description for someone who takes a free pick and uses it if the service itself is losing.

i am not differentiating between a shill and someone posting inaccurate data. If you feel slighted for being labelled with the term, and that term was in error, you have apologies. But Regardless, posting a figure from his site in direct disagreement with tracked numbers and then accusing me of "false analysis" doesn't seem like comments of an independent party.

May you win the bets you make.

[busmu]

The false analysis is taking the results from IC and applying it to Doc sports (the handicapper). The copy and paste was from the college results from Doc sports. Raiders does not even track Doc sports, he mainly tracks IC. This is an example of comparing apples and oranges. I'm not defending Doc, I'm just stating that the analysis is incorrect.

[busmu]

What type of documentation would you like to see to support the claim of +$9490 for Doc's college basketball?

And provide a reasonable timeframe for providing the documentation.

[Flyboys]

Jan 19-present orange red plays doc's crew:


These are labelled orange and red. SBR does not allow "game of" if anything, this paints better picture as wins such as a light red IC celtics are equated with losses like SPS' blazing red loss weds. For purposes of this thread, orange is rated between light and dark orange and red between light and blazing red.


The crew is 19-23 on big plays, going 16-16 on orange and 3-7 on red.
On big plays alone, -44.1u
On big plays the crew is hitting 45.2%


Since Jan 19, the day after RAS went dark and the marketing blitz began:


The crew is 9-6 on orange NBA
The crew is 2-5 on red NBA
The crew is 7-9 on orange NCAAB
The crew is 1-1 on red NCAAB


The crew also made 2 big plays on the superbowl, posted into BB threads:
The crew is 0-1 on red superbowl
The crew is 0-1 on orange superbowl


Each individual capper will have a separate post that will detail the individual games comprising this record. When individuals are listed along with their independent tracked records, you can decide for yourself what your opinion of a service which sells "big" plays to you that it rates much weaker when turned in for tracking purposes.


When you look at records such as these, ask yourself how well must a group that is 30% on red and 50% on orange do on the blue and green that are presumably so much weaker...just to get back to even? Particularly when the majority of those games are blue:green at less than a 4:1 ratio?


Remember it was RF who said "55% is a GREAT handicapper"


To get it back to even over 100 games:
Try over 68% on green and 62.5% on blue and you'd still be not quite there.

Over 200 games?
65% on green and 58% still has you short.

It tops 400 games before hitting 55% gets you even.


And if you are 45% on big plays, you ain't hitting 55% on blue over any span.


****

Fun quotes during that time from shills that have already made posts supporting Doc's inThis thread:


"I know Doc and he's great...but does anyone know about his other guys?"

same guy 4 days later: "Have you followed Eastman? You should...He's up huge!"


"I got -3.5 (not -4/-4.5) and won" : twice to people who lost/pushed 4
"I got -1 and pushed" : response to two who lost at -1.5


"We had the right side on that big play, we just got screwed" on a big play loss


"Sick way to lose a game, it was a good play" on a big play loss