If touts are frauds..coin flip?..how do you explain this message from RAS

reno cool · 10-03-09, 11:44 AM

marketing?
Limit, 2 key chains per caller.

pavyracer · 10-03-09, 11:47 AM

They are contemplating...I thought only lawyers use that. I call whore shit.

Sam Odom · 10-03-09, 11:47 AM

One word : Bullshitt

InTheHole · 10-03-09, 11:48 AM

Justin7 · 10-03-09, 11:54 AM

RAS is one of the more legit services. Their CBB totals picks will probably win. The problem is that the market is so small, it's difficult to get volume down.

InTheHole · 10-03-09, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

RAS is one of the more legit services. Their CBB totals picks will probably win. The problem is that the market is so small, it's difficult to get volume down.

There are many legit services out there and the idea (which is promoted by many at sbrforum) that subscribing to an experts opinion is foolish (i.e. tout) is ridiculous. Same opinion is not shared by investors who subscribe to a mutual fund or utilize the services of a financial advisor. They are synonymous....End the Hate...Make Love not War.

Justin7 · 10-03-09, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by InTheHole

There are many legit services out there and the idea (which is promoted by many at sbrforum) that subscribing to an experts opinion is foolish (i.e. tout) is ridiculous. Same opinion is not shared by investors who subscribe to a mutual fund or utilize the services of a financial advisor. They are synonymous....End the Hate...Make Love not War.

I'll call Bullshit.

There are about 3 touts I know of that are likely to be profitable going forward. There might be a few others, but 99% of them are crap.

InTheHole · 10-03-09, 12:14 PM

Who are they Justin? Wouldn't there be value in a "tout" who can either make you more money are prevent you from loosing more money than you would do if you were on your own?

InTheHole · 10-03-09, 12:18 PM

Well? I am waiting for the list....you can PM it to me if you want to keep it private.

madmaxx · 10-03-09, 12:28 PM

InTheHole · 10-03-09, 12:39 PM

haha...thought about "Editing" that picture but I like VegasDave

madmaxx · 10-03-09, 12:45 PM

as do i...who is this fraud?

Iceman · 10-03-09, 12:47 PM

Rumor is the price for the service will be 10k.

I can name 5 legit services: Dr. Bob CFB, RAS CBB totals, Sports memo's: ER and Tim Trushel and Ed Meyer at VI baseball plays.

durito · 10-03-09, 12:51 PM

RAS is 23-8 so far NCAA football sides/totals.

They are legitimate. The lines wouldn't move so much if they weren't. Same thing with dr bob college football.

10k? That's a bit absurd. Their biggest edge is in november and december. Pinnacle dropped their limits to $250 last december and circled most games to $100. Pretty tough to make back the subscription cost with that. Not to mention the books are still gonna kick out people that play these.

Reload · 10-03-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by durito

RAS is 23-8 so far NCAA football sides/totals.

They are legitimate. The lines wouldn't move so much if they weren't. Same thing with dr bob college football.

10k? That's a bit absurd. Their biggest edge is in november and december. Pinnacle dropped their limits to $250 last december and circled most games to $100. Pretty tough to make back the subscription cost with that. Not to mention the books are still gonna kick out people that play these.

That's how I feel, durito. The business model of a heavy fee for plays that have such low maximums and totals that have been watched like hawks by bookmakers may not work at all. I could see raising the price a little but pricing 99% out of your market does not seem good at all.

durito · 10-03-09, 12:57 PM

Their ncaab totals went 161-111 last year

JoshW · 10-03-09, 12:57 PM

10k for totals is crazy IMO. The market is so small that 25 guys paying 10k a piece will hit the initial number as hard as before. And really it might be a disadvantage. With 200+ subscribers, likely guys playing at worse prices creating more steam which makes the picks more valuable. The 25 guys will want the actual sendout number and are less likely to keep pounding it at less optimal numbers.

Be interesting to see what they do.

durito · 10-03-09, 12:59 PM

Bookmaker will take $500 on these. That's about the best you can do early season. They would have to finish +20 units just to break even. Everyone else with limits that high will kick you for playing them. They move too fast to bet at more than one shop anyway.

The Bishop · 10-03-09, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

I'll call Bullshit.

There are about 3 touts I know of that are likely to be profitable going forward. There might be a few others, but 99% of them are crap.

Is Dr. Bob one of these? No idea how he's doing this year.

Justin7 · 10-03-09, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by The Bishop

Is Dr. Bob one of these? No idea how he's doing this year.

Dr Bob, RAS and Scott Kellen. I'm not saying all others are scams, but it's possible

bettilimbroke999 · 10-03-09, 03:00 PM

Wow down 10k off the bat, that's pretty fukin confident if max bets are only 500

Justin7 · 10-03-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by bettilimbroke999

Wow down 10k off the bat, that's pretty fukin confident if max bets are only 500

Players who do this for a living can bet much more than that on a total... but it is much harder if you are competing against a ton of people.

durito · 10-03-09, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Justin7

Players who do this for a living can bet much more than that on a total... but it is much harder if you are competing against a ton of people.

Right but not when you have 2 seconds before the line the moves. If I am making my own play I can max it at any # of books at the same time and can easily get what I want (which is surely way less than you'd want, but certainly more than $500). But to play these tout plays is very difficult for any money.

Buy RAS this week. Go to their release page thursday, try and bet one of their plays at pinnacle. (same thing applies to dr bob). You can get 1/4 in maybe. You can get them in at greek, but they will close your account.

Although, I'm curious how you can get 10k on an ncaab total in december.

Justin7 · 10-03-09, 03:40 PM

If only one person were betting it without competition, he could easily get 50k on a total, AND manipulate for line value. If 5 people aren't cooperating, the 5 combined would have trouble betting 10k on it.

Doug · 10-03-09, 03:51 PM

I wonder if the plays would still get posted, if only 25 got them ?

Edward-RAS · 10-05-09, 02:31 AM

The CBB totals service has averaged +32.80 flat units in its first two seasons. Using a conservative projection of +15.00 units you would have to average $1333 per pick at the release line to double your investment ($20,000). Anything more than that is gravy.

We estimate that the top 10% of subscribers were able to average more than $2000 per wager even with last year's extremely competitive format.

The bottom line is that the previous format was not sustainable long term and a change had to be made. We considered many different options and we think we have come up with the best solution.

Edward

InTheHole · 10-05-09, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by Edward-RAS

The CBB totals service has averaged +32.80 flat units in its first two seasons. Using a conservative projection of +15.00 units you would have to average $1333 per pick at the release line to double your investment ($20,000). Anything more than that is gravy.

We estimate that the top 10% of subscribers were able to average more than $2000 per wager even with last year's extremely competitive format.

The bottom line is that the previous format was not sustainable long term and a change had to be made. We considered many different options and we think we have come up with the best solution.

Edward

Thanks for chiming in. Continued success!

Edward-RAS · 10-05-09, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by InTheHole

Thanks for chiming in. Continued success!

No problem. Just let me know if I can answer any other questions.

Edward

InTheHole · 10-05-09, 11:03 AM

I maintain my position that these services are of VALUE if they keep a player from losing more than they would of if they never used them at all.

Richkas · 10-05-09, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

RAS is one of the more legit services. Their CBB totals picks will probably win. The problem is that the market is so small, it's difficult to get volume down.

Ive none this guy since he first started. He's not shit. I would put him in the same class as LT. You are 10 times a better capper than them Justin

rm18 · 10-05-09, 11:10 AM

might be able to get more down with parlays as well at some books, could just take a -1500 if no other plays you like.

Edward-RAS · 10-05-09, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by InTheHole

I maintain my position that these services are of VALUE if they keep a player from losing more than they would of if they never used them at all.

Exactly.

It is kind of like when some people say, I already win, why do I need to pay you? Well guess what, if you make +10 units on your own, and another +10 units following someone else, you make twice as much as you would have otherwise.

pavyracer · 10-05-09, 11:51 AM

If you are up +32 units why don't you play these games at $100,000 a piece at various books and become a millionaire instead of looking for change money from subscriptions.

Edward-RAS · 10-05-09, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by pavyracer

If you are up +32 units why don't you play these games at $100,000 a piece at various books and become a millionaire instead of looking for change money from subscriptions.

Betting CBB totals for $100k a piece AND collecting would be quite a feat. If that were a realistic option, and I had an 8 figure bankroll, I would say sign me up.