Generating your own lines

[wesp36305]

what info is put into the process I would like to know how to do this

[tacomax]

Pags11 is the resident expert at this.

[CarpeDime]

It's a huge process but watch all of Justin7's educational vids and you will get a decent start

[hhsilver]

Pags11 is the resident expert at this.

Was he asking what you are answering? apples and oranges i think

[jjgold]

Why would you want to do this?

You cannot beat them

[Hybris]

Why would you want to do this?

You cannot beat them

[wesp36305]

I wanna come up with my own. Winning is determined by the player

[Nicky Santoro]

people make me laugh here who think that by making their own lines, they will get an edge.. lol.

like their own made up line is going to be better than 23 oddsmakers hooked up to computers, and have 2,342 different angles that they look at for every game....LOL..

yeah, but since john smith said Giants should be -3.5, then he must be right with his line and all the other 2,342 oddsmakers were all wrong.. LOL

[wesp36305]

People make me laugh as well when they open a thread have nothing insightful about the question asked, but still offer their smartass opinion. The reason i want to do it is because I want to do it bottom line thank you

[jjgold]

Wepper don't get sharp with Nicky and I, we know what we are talking about.

How are you going to beat Pinnacle's lines?

[Nicky Santoro]

wesper,

do NOT do like all my smart buddies do who know every stat and player of every sport.. I love when they call me at 2 pm telling me if it's true what they see that NYY are only -165 at home? i say yes, and then they tell me to bet that game cause NYY are 12-0 vs this team, they are 23-3 on grass, and 19-1 at night, and 21-1 in cold weather games.. they tell me to bet it asap cause line will go to -200 by game time..

game time at pinny closes at NYY -138..

and this happens all the time..

wesper, no one can predict which way a line will go based on their own opinion of what a line should be off the top of their head..

stop dreaming wesper.. you are living in a fantasy world.. you cannot beat these oddsmakers.. now go get a real job..

[durito]

Oddsmakers at a couple books throw a number out there and let the market sharpen it.

Who do you think is moving those odds?


lol at this thread in the think tank

[Nicky Santoro]

Who do you think is moving those odds?

originators move the lines.. computer groups move lines.. certainly not any recreational poster or any poster here at sbr..

[jjgold]

In my prime I was one of 5 guys that got the wwts line to bet first

Nicky will confirm and I guess wwts used the 5 guys betting to sharpen their line and then open up to public.

Wesper what are your credentials??

GL Chief

[wesp36305]

Sir I have a job and a very good one actually. I dont sell picks or do I ever wanna do that. I was just asking a question to give ME every edge I can get, thats all so if you couldnt offer me any useful information why even respond thats my only question. I dont know you and you dont know me so why assume mo much about me. since you cant help me there is no need to further this discussion have a good day sir.

[durito]

originators move the lines.. computer groups move lines.. certainly not any recreational poster or any poster here at sbr..

some such players are posters are here... though usually not in players talk

[wesp36305]

At what point did I proclaim anything? I asked could anybody help me figure out howw to generate your own lines kinda like a power ranking. For MY use. So how did that turn into this.

[Nicky Santoro]

some such players are posters are here... though usually not in players talk

keep dreaming, durito.. you also live in a fantasy world.. you are telling me that there are posters at sbr that see Lakers open at -11.5 and know right away that line should be lakers -8.5 at close and that it's way off.. and by game time, that line is -8.5??

yeah right, durito.. and i'm Tiger Woods.

durito, if anyone is this person, they'd not be posting at sbr. they'd be living on an island in Monaco with 12 maids and 14 escorts around the clock.. not at sbr.

btw, if you do know this guy that can do this, tell him i will give him 200k a year for his info, NO JOKE. cause i will make 800k from them a year..... in my sleep...

[jjgold]

Wesper your not Susuale Pieere from Montreal are you??

He has your writing style and is sharp, you can go into think tank here at SBR and get some pointers also

Wesper give me a winner

[wesp36305]

No sir I am from Alabama,and my best pick for the week is Minnesota -2 1/2

[TomG]

Here ya go, start with this...

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA011246011033.aspx?pid=CH010004571033

When you realize this is too simple of a methodology to set accurate point spreads, you can then begin exploring better methods on your own.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Regression and/or Monte Carlo simulations are the most widely used methods for determining fair value on a particular side. It would certainly help if you have a programming and financial forecast modeling background. Don't pay attention to jj or Nicky. To get started, you'll probably want to check the Think Tank subforum (which this thread was somehow cross referenced to even with the null contributions of the forum idiots). There are some threads in there that you should certainly read and should be of use to you.

[tacomax]

btw, if you do know this guy that can do this, tell him i will give him 200k a year for his info, NO JOKE. cause i will make 800k from them a year..... in my sleep...

How many Neteller accounts is that over?

[bookie]

If you want to make them for a sport you follow closely, you can just develop an information gathering routine and pull the numbers out of your head the way oddsmakers have for centuries. And then use Excel to evaluate your opener vs. market opener and closer and ATSM to breakdown how well your brain is working and its strengths and weaknesses.

[calm]

TomG is super sharp.

[IrishTim]

keep dreaming, durito.. you also live in a fantasy world.. you are telling me that there are posters at sbr that see Lakers open at -11.5 and know right away that line should be lakers -8.5 at close and that it's way off.. and by game time, that line is -8.5??

From what I've seen, Justin7 fits this mold.

[Nicky Santoro]

From what I've seen, Justin7 fits this mold.

sorry but he doesn't.. not saying he's not sharp, but many times he has come in and said how he cant believe how TEX is only -132 overnight, and that line is way off and it will close at -160.. and it ends up closing at -116.. he's done this a few times.

i am talking about a guy that knows off the bat the line is off and it moves always 2-6 pts his way.

you boys better quit dreaming, this don't exist here at sbr.. these specific guys don't hang around sbr or any forums.. they are too busy on the golf course

[Unitage]

nicky your saying nobody can set better lines than oddsmakers in minor league games? OHL, echl hockey, latvian hockey lgs? why are the limits $50 on pinny then?
I agree its stupid in big time major leagues where the lines are ultra sharp, but its very possible to have an edge on little known leagues yet you've completely dismissed that.

[LT Profits]

nicky your saying nobody can set better lines than oddsmakers in minor league games? OHL, echl hockey, latvian hockey lgs? why are the limits $50 on pinny then?
I agree its stupid in big time major leagues where the lines are ultra sharp, but its very possible to have an edge on little known leagues yet you've completely dismissed that.

Precisely why Justin7 went into mourning when the Arena Football League folded and quite a few guys here kill WNBA.

[pavyracer]

Basically you start with Vegas lines and then adjust accordingly depending on which side gets heavier action.

[Nicky Santoro]

nicky your saying nobody can set better lines than oddsmakers in minor league games? OHL, echl hockey, latvian hockey lgs? why are the limits $50 on pinny then?
I agree its stupid in big time major leagues where the lines are ultra sharp, but its very possible to have an edge on little known leagues yet you've completely dismissed that.

i'm talking only MLB, NBA, NFL and college sports. . NHL lines are beatable, i beat them more often than not.. no one here can look at a line like lakers open at -12.5 and know for certain that game is off and will close at -9.5 and it does..

alot here think they can and see the lakers at -12.5 and think it should be -15.5 and it ends up closing at -10..

forget about it.. not happening.. big talkers here.. if you can do this, then step up and show me and i will apologize and say i was wrong and send you $200, if you do it consistently.. but don't bother wasting yours and my time..

[Flying Dutchman]

Here ya go, start with this...

http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/excel/HA011246011033.aspx?pid=CH010004571033

When you realize this is too simple of a methodology to set accurate point spreads, you can then begin exploring better methods on your own.

Yeah right. Solver is broke dick in MSOffice 2003 and has issues in 2007. The folks who wrote it (Frontline Systems) will tell you that Billy-bob Gates wouldn't pay 'em to upgrade since 97. It sub-optimizes too. Good luck.

[Justin7]

i'm talking only MLB, NBA, NFL and college sports. . NHL lines are beatable, i beat them more often than not.. no one here can look at a line like lakers open at -12.5 and know for certain that game is off and will close at -9.5 and it does..

alot here think they can and see the lakers at -12.5 and think it should be -15.5 and it ends up closing at -10..

forget about it.. not happening.. big talkers here.. if you can do this, then step up and show me and i will apologize and say i was wrong and send you $200, if you do it consistently.. but don't bother wasting yours and my time..

Nicky,

I can beat these markets:
MLB totals early in the season - pound and scalp, or keep naked positions
College football (not just overnights)

There are others where I'm a favorite to beat, but not in the same slam-dunk terms.

As a formal matter of public dick waving, would you agree or disagree with this statement:
If a person:
1. Has every stat and spread for the last 20 years of NCAA football;
2. Has a math and statistical background;
3. Understands cause and effect relationships well in sports
4. Is a skilled programmer and modeler
5. Has sufficient time to analyze all of the above in an integrated manner
THEN
That person *could* be a favorite to win 55% of his NCAAF spread bets placed between Tuesday and Thursday only a lines listed at an "A" or higher rated book geared towards professionals?

I contend that that statement is true, even if there are not a ton of plays generated.

[Dark Horse]

btw, if you do know this guy that can do this, tell him i will give him 200k a year for his info, NO JOKE. cause i will make 800k from them a year..... in my sleep...

200K a year? If you can afford to make the first installment pm me. But don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk.

[Nicky Santoro]

200K a year? If you can afford to make the first installment pm me. But don't talk the talk if you can't walk the walk.

i'lll tell you what.. you find me that guy, and i swear i will produce you 200k..

but you won't find that guy here at sbr..

quit while you're ahead.