What's More Important?

[Senator7]

A post by Raiders in a different thread got me thinking about this. What is more important to you when betting a game: the line or the juice? I, personally, worry very little about the juice so long as its -110 or better. For me, the line itself is everything. A half point to me is golden and I would take a half point before a juice reduction. Any thoughts?

[mad]

Points all day long everyday for me.

[bigboydan]

senator, depends what the line is, and where that line is everywhere else.

[raiders72001]

This is where the works involved. You have to know what a 1/2 point is worth at different spreads.

Example- In the NBA you can take +7 -118 or +6.5 -110. Since I think it's worth more than 8 cents to move from 6.5 to 7 I take the +7 -118.

Now if the line is +7 -125 and +6.5 -110 I take the +6.5 -110 because it's not worth the 15 cents to move.

This is really the whole key to betting. You have to know which line is better and always get the best line.

[raiders72001]

Key numbers for the NFL are 3 and 7. In the NBA it's 6 to 7,. In NCAA basketball it's 2. Moving off and on these numbers is much more important than the other numbers.

[raiders72001]

Today was a great example of getting the best numbner. I turned two games into wins that would either been a push or a loss if I didn't take the best line at the best time. Here's what I played and posted.

"Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 3:26 am Post subject: TFZ Sun 11/6
Chi -2.5 -125 Rock
Oak +4.5"

[raiders72001]

Most forum guys got their asses handed to them today but by turning these two games around for me I ended up 4-3 with a slight profit. I do post my plays.

[Brick Tamland]

8 cents in the NBA??? There is no science that i know of but that sounds way over valued,

Im thinking 5 cents, Youd get buried buying halfs for 8 cents. Maybe in college...not nba.

[bigboydan]

"Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2005 3:26 am Post subject: TFZ Sun 11/6
Chi -2.5 -125 Rock
Oak +4.5"

i know you did raiders, i read your post over there.

[rm18]

You're wrong, look at pinnacle you can sell off of any number for at least 8 cents, some for 11. I half point in basketball is much more important than most realize, If you can get -5 and +6 at even -110 juice that is worth middling

[raiders72001]

Brick- It's worth a little over 10 cents off of 7. I've got thje numbers to prove it. THe reason why is that at the end of the game if a team is up by 7 the other team normally won't foul at the end and will let the clock run out. Always buy the 1/2 pt on 7.

[Brick Tamland]

also...Pinacle is not a good gude for NBA in my opinnon

[raiders72001]

rm makes a good point. By knowing the % worth of numbers you can determine whether to try to middle or not. A 1/2 point is much more valuable from 6 to 7 then from 12 to 13.

[raiders72001]

Brick- Pinny is the best guide. In some sports you can also use 5 Dimes.

[raiders72001]

Dan- You have any luck today?

[raiders72001]

During March madness in the NCAA I will buy off of 2.

[raiders72001]

My rule of thumb for buying points.

NFL- Buy 1/2 point on 3 for 20 cents and 7 for 10 cents.
NBA- Buy 7 for 10 cents
NCAAB - Buy 2 for 10 cents

[pags11]

senator, great question...I think it's a delicate balance based on key numbers...if you can get a dog +7.5 (+105), your better off taking that than say +8.5 (-105)...or if you can get a favorite -2.5 (-105) vs. -3 (+100)...I try to look for the best combination possible...

[bigboydan]

Dan- You have any luck today?

i played only hoops yesterday and, went 1 and 2 on the day.

[d2bets]

Raiders nailed it. You can't say one is more important than the other. They are both important and the extent of the importance simply depends on the value of the half point (or full point and so on). It's probably easier to think of value in terms of vig and convert half points to values based on vig. With a little work you can eliminate vig altogether (plus a little), even when laying more than -100. Or pur another way, you can become the book. This is a good thing.

[Shawn01]

I worry little about the juice as long as it's the standard -110 or better and more about the line. However, if I'm considering a ML bet then the juice is everything (although it's decided by the line, so they're intertwined).

[why]

Its all math, so my answer is both. If you are getting reduced juice you are usually getting a better line. -105 vs. -110 is HUGE in the long run, so if you don't care, you should probably find another hobby!