im trying to find a sussessful plan on bankrll management this 5 percent thing just isnt working for me does any one ever have a better plan than that thanks guys
thanks lach
thanks lach
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whats not working? Try 2.5%Comment -
i dont wanna do the percentge crap i need to know how to rate them i win some games i lose others i make thousands than lose them i need something more better can some one please break it down for me maybe u could pm me or give me a more solid plan thanks thoComment -
Only bet winners...Comment -
lol guess theres not really a way to bet right everyone ends up losing rightComment -
Sports Genius....You have to be able to determine the Value of the plays and vary your bets from .5 to 5% IMO. In another words you have to work on your capping skillzComment -
is there any where i can go to get research on this ive trieed googling it and cant really find anything i bet more than 5 percent of my bankroll on some games im trying to figure everything outComment -
You should not be betting more than 5% of your bankroll ever if you want to win long term. You dont want money management, youre looking for someone to tell you its ok to drop half your roll on a play you love, which it isn't.Originally posted by sports geniusOriginally posted by Dark HorseComment -
It has to do with the games you are playing....this is not a bankroll issue. Try this:
Rate your games from Strongest to Weakest. Post them on the forum and get feedback and then bet accordinglyComment -
so if u got like a few hundread bucks just bet 5 -20 a game thats so stupid might be good money management but im not going to bet 20 no freaking point maybe i should just save until i got more moneyComment -
Yes, you should wait. You may not see the point in betting 20 bucks a game but theres even less point in going all in, losing and then redepositing over and over again. The problem you have though is you want to bet for the rush, so even if you get more money you'll still be betting too high a percentage of your bankroll and will lose. You need to reevaluate your approach to sports betting if you want to be successful.Originally posted by sports geniusOriginally posted by Dark HorseComment -
Spend more time studying math and statistics.
Hang out in the Handicapper think tank for a year or two.Comment -
The only post in this thread that will help you win. Ignore it if you don't like money.Originally posted by Justin7Comment -
Study, study
There's a book by Joseph Buchdahl called 'Fixed Odds Sports Betting' that covers different staking strategies. (Amazon has it.) The examples are focused on soccer but the staking stuff applies everywhere. He looks at Kelly, fixed profit staking, fixed percentage (like your 5%), (etc), and runs through simulations to see where you could be at with different 'edges', using different strategies... He also looks at the percentage chance of going bust (or the chance he found during his simulations....)Originally posted by sports genius
The edge part is the hard part, obviously... I'm new at this, but found the book it interesting. If I could manage a bit better edge than flipping a coin, I'd be pretty happy...............
DawsonComment -
Bet just enough so you're pissed either way: Pissed that you didn't bet more if you win, or pissed that you bet too much if you lose.Comment -
excellent section on money management. In the end he leaves it up to you as the reader to decide whether flat betting or kelly is best for your personality and betting.Originally posted by GoDawsGoComment -
Yeah, the original poster would do well to listen to this advice.Originally posted by Justin7
Sounds like the original poster wants to do too much, too quick. You need to think of this sports betting business as a long term investment. Somebody, probably a very wise person, once commented on this forum that you can sometimes get 4-8% interest on a bank account, if you can get a 10-15% return from your sports betting, its better than having the money sitting in the bank. If you have a $1,000 bankroll, 15% profit or $150 doesn't sound like much but its better than keeping than keeping the money in the bank. If you can't achieve a long term winning return from your sports investment then your money is better sitting in a bank, unless you are happy to gamble recreationally.
I am definately new to sports betting and when I use the term "new" I mean I have been doing this seriously for over 1 year now. However, I'm still learning, I have loads and loads of things left to learn about handicapping. Even though I make a nice profit from this, I am not content to sit back and stand still, I am only a beginner and I need to gain a lot more knowledge.
I'll give the original poster some examples of what I've done to improve because I think he wants to do well at sports betting but certainly needs some advice if he is to improve. Many of you have helped me a lot here, without even knowing it as I've browsed this forum for many months before joining, so if I can pass on a bit of wisdom and return the favour to other beginners then that would be great.
- Have a plan. Before you bet, plan what odds you are going to bet, plan what winning percentage you are targeting in order to be profitable, plan how much of your bankroll you will set aside for a certain sport, plan how much you are going to bet for each bet, plan what types of bets you are looking to bet in each sport. If you have a set plan beforehand, then you won't make impulsive decisions in the heat of the moment that could lose you money. You'll be betting with your head based on a careful, well thought out plan, rather than betting with your heart which can you help to avoid chasing losses or getting greedy and betting too big after a winning streak.
As I mentioned above knowing what odds you are going to bet on is important but I wanted to highlight this point further because I feel its vital to understand this in order to make money.
If you start with a bankroll of $10,000 and bet $100 per game at odds of -500 ($1.20), betting favourites and winning 70% of the time, how much money will you make after 100 bets? You will actually have lost $1,600. That might be a surprising statistic for someone who has researched sports betting and is just starting out, looking to make a quick profit. Its a big mistake to bet this way.
However, if you start with a bankroll of $10,000 and bet $100 per game at odds of -110 ($1.91) and win 54% of your bets, how much money will you make after 100 bets? You will have made a profit of $314, a return of 3.14% after just 100 bets, that's a good record! If you bet about 3 games a day, that's a 3.14% return after roughly 35 days, is there any bank in the world that would match that same return of investment in the same time period? No way.
As Justin7 pointed out very wisely, study maths and statistics, read some books about the subject, learn everything that you can, it will definately help you plan to profit in the future. This is useful not just in money management and odds selection but also helps you to predict the outcome of a sports contest.
- Know your sport and how you can apply that knowledge to sports betting. I've watched soccer since I was 10 years old, more than a decade, and I absolutely love the sport and I've always thought I knew quite a lot about soccer. However, I didn't know how to apply my knowledge of soccer to sports betting until I started researching soccer handicapping last year. When handicapping sports you have to know what stats and other factors to look for when analysing a match.
A perfect example of knowing a sport and knowing how to bet a sport was the difference in my success rate when betting soccer and tennis. When I first started betting I was more successful in betting tennis than betting soccer, that's because I knew how to bet tennis more effectively. I quickly realised this and took the steps needed to rectify this. I researched soccer handicapping, read a lot of posts about soccer bets on SBR and increased my knowledge in this area.
- Expand your knowledge. When handicapping soccer, in the past I've generally stuck to handicapping European soccer games but in the last couple of months I've been researching and gaining more knowledge about the soccer leagues and teams outside of Europe. I feel I've increased my knowledge in this area enough to start making some bets on games outside of Europe and have placed my first two wagers outside of European soccer, only today. However, again, I'm still looking to learn more and more about these leagues.
In the past I've mainly bet on tennis and soccer. Now I am in the process of studying hard on how to handicap American sports. I am betting on some American sports but with smaller stakes while I am learning. Reading the handicapping forums for American sports provides me with some excellent learning material and its great to see other people's opinions on betting certain games.
- Watch your sports. One of the most important things to do when learning is to actually watch as many games as you can from the sports you are betting on and wanting to learn about. As I'm typing here, a college football game is about the finish soon, an A-League soccer game is going to start soon on another channel and on another channel they are showing a replay of a women's tennis semi-final.
- Enjoy what you are doing. I absolutely love watching all these sports and consider it a pleasure to be able to watch all these matches. I've also just finished writing a blog entry in Microsoft Word that I am going to post on my blog soon for the A-League soccer match that is about to start. Enjoying what you are doing is important, if you are passionate about something you might be more likely to succeed at it.
- Take records and analyse them. Record your bets and try to work out why certain bets have won or lost, try to work out why certain types of bets have a higher winning percentage or profit margin than others. For example, my soccer handicapping totals are quite interesting because my overs are generally more successful than my unders so I've been investigating why this happens.
- Learn from others. Pretty simple this one. Whether its getting information on handicapping or information on the sportsbook industry, its vital that you have an open mind and try to learn from the experience of others, learn what makes them successful, learn what they think about when handicapping games. The more knowledge you can gather, the more experience and successful you will become, if you can successfully apply that knowledge.
That's all for now. Good luck, I hope you are able to learn as much as possible about sports betting.
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im sure ive heard it on this site, but they say if u dont no every player on the team u obviously dont have the knowledge to bet on that game.....
this is a terribly hard buisness, not many survive,Comment -
just flat bet $100 for the rest of ur life. it's manageable: not a wuss wager, but not a high roller wager either. it's just perfect. i'm not a fan of the % thing either, as it just increases the break even pt (but makes it impossible to go bankrupt). also not a fan of progressive, as it makes it too easy to go bankrupt (although lowers ur break even pt)Comment -
Well generally that might be true, I doubt anyone can name every player on an NCAAF football team even if they bet college ball.Originally posted by PASS IT ONComment -
This is not true. For college football, I don't know the players and I don't even know what State they are playing in unless the State is in the name of the team (I can usually guess the State if a city is in the nameOriginally posted by PASS IT ON
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It depends on what you are using and/or doing to create your edge. I create my edge by using live wagering which does not have "fixed" odds. By using the spread and my knowledge of how live wagering develops during the game, I create hedges that give me an edge. In fact, I believe that the fact that I do not know the players or the teams is also my edge because I don't have any "expectations" of the teams that cloud my wagering decisions. My decisions are based on my stats and %'s and my knowledge of live wagering price movement.
Joe.Comment -
true 20four7, but within reason, like if u think ur serious about MLB u gotta know all of the players, in larger teams like NCAAF u would imagine the serious punters would no all of the stars from the teams???Comment -
Not true. Again, it depends on how your edge is created.Originally posted by PASS IT ON
Here is an actual example from Thursday's Dodger game. I happened to turn the game on late. They were going into the bottom of the ninth with LA 1 run down. The odds on LA were +510. The generic %'s for a team to score at least 1 run is approx 30%. If LA were to tie the game up, the odds would change to LA being the favorite to win the game. This is a +EV situation for me. I played a little more than half a unit to win 3 units. When LA scored, I then palyed about a 1/4 unit on St L @ +228. I now had no money at risk and if LA wins I would win 2.75 units. In this case LA won. Was I lucky to win this one? Yes. But that luck is also part of the %'s that make up the 30% chance of a team scoring a run. I did not rely on who the batters were or who was pitching. In fact, other than Ramirez, I don't know the names of any of the other players.
Joe.Comment -
ok i loose
, i guess im proving myself wrong by going pretty well in the MLB post season contest, as i dont no any player in those teams.
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i actually think it's a disadvantage in this business to know more about the teams. the top bettors are barely sports fans, they simply use math, calculations, and find their edge and make their plays, it's an investment. the public are the ones who know almost every player, can name you every useless stat out there, always think the favs gonna win etc...
i have a friend like that, knows every player in each of the 4 main leagues, no joke, and knowing all that still gives him zero edge when it comes to this business. it's not about the sports.Comment -
start with $100
find 52 wagers you like in ncaaf,ncaab only
take the moneylines that avg a 13-17% payout
reinvest your bottomline [+intrest,profits every time]
after 52 correct wagers you have over 148k
gl although you wont need itComment
