Question on lines

[Shawn01]

VIP's money line on the Jax-Houston game has Houston at +750, which I understand. However, they have Jacksonville at -1100. I guess that's one way to slow down ML wagers on the heavy favorite.

Is such a big negative line common with sportsbooks? And is it done to keep big bettors away from the ML on that game, or is more complicated than that?

[mad]

Markets are structured to represent, in dollar terms, the individual teams chance of winning the game. In the above example the Market has been framed to approx 104%. The breakdown looks something like Houston 750 = 12%, Jax -1100 = 92%.
Therefore these prices suggest that the betting market considers Houstons chances of winning = 12%. Assessing these types of situations brings us into the "value" realm, whereby if you believe that Houston real chances of winning are or are not equal to the betting markets interpretation then you would wager accordingly i.e Houston either represent value at 750 in which case you would back them or you would back the opposition if this was not the case. However this is an entirely different topic.

[Shawn01]

So VIP hasn't put a ridiculous -1100 ML on the Jags to discourage bets, but because the formula used for determining ML bets has it turn out that way...correct?

[mad]

Well not so much to discourage bets as to limit the amount to be paid out in the event that Jacksonville win. If they had it at anything less they would obviously have to pay out more. You must remember that the prize pool is a fixed amount as determined by the amount wagered in total on this game. This is if they run a balanced book, otherwise it would have to come from their own pockets and this is where you could run into trouble with less reputable books (re: payouts) should the less reputable book take a chance on the game.

Ultimately you and i are not gambling against the book, we are gambling against each other.

[BuddyBear]

Shawn you make a good point. A lot of times high money lines are there to discourage bettors from wagering on the ML and instead wager on the spread which is more difficult even though much better odds. For example, yesterday in the USC/Stanford game USC was -7000!!!! Only a crazy person would lay $7000 to win a $100 and for the books to give out a $100 is nothing while you risk $7000 which is a big risk for most bettors especially all on one game. You could have put $1 on Stanford and got back $500 if they win...either way the book is discouraging action on the money line in that game.

Best thing is to avoid huge money lines unless they are part of a money line parlay.

[moses millsap]

You could have put $1 on Stanford and got back $500 if they win...

You would've won only $50 on a $1 wager on the Stanford ML at Pinnacle yesterday.

[mad]

You're forgetting one valuable point however, which is Stanford would have to win the game.

[BuddyBear]

You would've won only $50 on a $1 wager on the Stanford ML at Pinnacle yesterday.

Woops that's what I meant....i really need to improve my math

[raiders72001]

While -1100/+750 looks bad it is actually a better line than -110/-110.

-1100/+750 theoretical hold is 3.32%
-110/-110 theoretical hold is 4.55%

[rm18]

Ganchrow provided a really insightful formula for this, actually according to this line most people don't realize the real line is +779/-779, so if you could find a +800 you would have an advantage if VIP had the correct line, but I would probably only do thos calculations off of pinnacle or maybe Cris.

Like today I got 49ers +525, I can't scalp it at pinnacle, but according to them the real line is +490/-490, it probably won't hit but it did last week against Tampa and will work out in the long term.

[Ganchrow]

While -1100/+750 looks bad it is actually a better line than -110/-110.

-1100/+750 theoretical hold is 3.32%
-110/-110 theoretical hold is 4.55%

Indeed.
Pinnacle is currently quoting the same game at 785/-865 for a theoretical hold of only 0.93%. Not a bad deal.

[Ganchrow]

Ganchrow provided a really insightful formula for this, actually according to this line most people don't realize the real line is +779/-779, so if you could find a +800 you would have an advantage if VIP had the correct line, but I would probably only do those calculations off of pinnacle or maybe Cris.

Just realize that the formula I gave is only valid given the assumption of equal expectancies for the favorite and the dog.

[Shawn01]

Today was my first ML bet since I started this hobby. For me the ML is an attractive option for a game with a tight spread that offers a positive ML for the underdog (i.e. the Saints and Patroits this week), if I believe the dog can win. I have no business playing parlays with my inexperience, but I see why ML's would be good for them.

Thanks for the info guys.

[newb411breaker19]

ganchrow would you mind repeating the formula you gave

[raiders72001]

To find true odds. Ex. +250/-300

+250 is 3.5 in decimal odds, and -300 is 1.33

Now, the true odds are:

3.5 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 3.625 which is +263
and
1.33 * (1/3.5 + 1/1.33) = 1.381 which is -263

And an easy way to convert american odds to decimal odds (and vice versa), is like this:

If american odds is over +100, then divide it by hundred and add one, and it's in decimals: +250/100+1 = 3.5

And if american odds are under -100, then divide it by hundred and forget the minus sign, and then divide number one with that value, and add one: 1/(300/100)+1 = 1.33

[Ganchrow]

Just as raiders said.

    (100+D) x F
  ± -----------
       100-F

Where D (>= 100) and F (<= -100) are the signed dog and favorite lines respectively.

[newb411breaker19]

oh sweet thanx ganchrow and raiders